Posted:
#51
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:
Quote Originally Posted by jowchoo: Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams: On the Monday episode of ESPN Bet Live, Joe Fortenbaugh laid out a solid case for DEN. QBs that were the #1 overall picks making their NFL debuts went just 5-22-1 SU and 8-20 ATS. Bo Nix is 8-0 SU and ATS as a favorite. thx for that DBW. Combine above tendancy with the rookie qb first start on the road and a mispriced HFA should lead to a DENVER play or a PASS. GL on your play,very surprised you see this as a live DOG. JC, I have many other queries that favor TEN and only one that favors DEN - and that is fading TEN and it is only 3-8 ATS. Normally I don't keep track of weak 3-8 queries, but the average ATS margin is -9.8, so I am keeping an eye on it. It certainly won't keep me off TEN. While queries are thought of as technical handicapping, I think of them as a super quick method of checking fundamental data. For example, here is another query that likes weak TEN's strong passing DEF: week = 1 and AD and tpA(o:PY) < 217.5 and tpS(W) < 5.5 SU: 18-26 (-1.2,40.9%) ATS: 30-13-1 (5.7,69.8%) In week 1, Away Dogs that won 5 games or less last season but held their opponents to an average of 217 or less passing yards win SU 40.9% (a great value at +315) and cover 69.8% of the games. I used 217.5 PY to produce a larger sample size. This allowed a binomial test and the Z-value of 2.44 is at least somewhat encouraging. TEN's passing defense last season was actually stronger than that: week = 1 and AD and tpA(o:PY) < 197.5 and tpS(W) < 5.5 SU: 8-8 (-1.9,50.0%) A great value at +315! ATS: 12-4 (5.8,75.0%) I did not save that query because of the small sample size, but consider this: week = 1 and AD and tpA(o:PY) > 197.5 and tpS(W) < 5.5 84 games (vs. 16 games), so TEN's passing DEF is much stronger than most teams that couldn't win 6 games in a season. A team with an above-average passing DEF definitely qualifies as a live dog. Good luck everybody.
Quote Originally Posted by jowchoo: Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams: On the Monday episode of ESPN Bet Live, Joe Fortenbaugh laid out a solid case for DEN. QBs that were the #1 overall picks making their NFL debuts went just 5-22-1 SU and 8-20 ATS. Bo Nix is 8-0 SU and ATS as a favorite. thx for that DBW. Combine above tendancy with the rookie qb first start on the road and a mispriced HFA should lead to a DENVER play or a PASS. GL on your play,very surprised you see this as a live DOG. JC, I have many other queries that favor TEN and only one that favors DEN - and that is fading TEN and it is only 3-8 ATS. Normally I don't keep track of weak 3-8 queries, but the average ATS margin is -9.8, so I am keeping an eye on it. It certainly won't keep me off TEN. While queries are thought of as technical handicapping, I think of them as a super quick method of checking fundamental data. For example, here is another query that likes weak TEN's strong passing DEF: week = 1 and AD and tpA(o:PY) < 217.5 and tpS(W) < 5.5 SU: 18-26 (-1.2,40.9%) ATS: 30-13-1 (5.7,69.8%) In week 1, Away Dogs that won 5 games or less last season but held their opponents to an average of 217 or less passing yards win SU 40.9% (a great value at +315) and cover 69.8% of the games. I used 217.5 PY to produce a larger sample size. This allowed a binomial test and the Z-value of 2.44 is at least somewhat encouraging. TEN's passing defense last season was actually stronger than that: week = 1 and AD and tpA(o:PY) < 197.5 and tpS(W) < 5.5 SU: 8-8 (-1.9,50.0%) A great value at +315! ATS: 12-4 (5.8,75.0%) I did not save that query because of the small sample size, but consider this: week = 1 and AD and tpA(o:PY) > 197.5 and tpS(W) < 5.5 84 games (vs. 16 games), so TEN's passing DEF is much stronger than most teams that couldn't win 6 games in a season. A team with an above-average passing DEF definitely qualifies as a live dog. Good luck everybody.
NICE WORK DBW.
It is imo more about the starting rookie qb and my perceived mispricing of season opening mile high HFA.
Good Luck and maybe a backdoor cover is in the cards.
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