This is the query. It is fading DEN which was very strong at home last season.
week = 1 and HF and line < -5.2 and tpS(margin > 8.5 @ H) > 5.5
SU: 13-9 (2.7,59.1%)
ATS: 4-17-1 (-5.9,19.0%)
In Week 1, home favorites of 5.5 points or more that won at least 6 home games by 9+ points last season are a horrible 4-17-1 ATS, failing to cover by an average of 5.9 points. I am aware how weak rookies usually fare in their first road games, so it is just a one-unit wager.
Good luck everybody.
2
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
This is the query. It is fading DEN which was very strong at home last season.
week = 1 and HF and line < -5.2 and tpS(margin > 8.5 @ H) > 5.5
SU: 13-9 (2.7,59.1%)
ATS: 4-17-1 (-5.9,19.0%)
In Week 1, home favorites of 5.5 points or more that won at least 6 home games by 9+ points last season are a horrible 4-17-1 ATS, failing to cover by an average of 5.9 points. I am aware how weak rookies usually fare in their first road games, so it is just a one-unit wager.
This is the query. It is fading DEN which was very strong at home last season. week = 1 and HF and line < -5.2 and tpS(margin > 8.5 @ H) > 5.5 SU: 13-9 (2.7,59.1%) ATS: 4-17-1 (-5.9,19.0%) In Week 1, home favorites of 5.5 points or more that won at least 6 home games by 9+ points last season are a horrible 4-17-1 ATS, failing to cover by an average of 5.9 points. I am aware how weak rookies usually fare in their first road games, so it is just a one-unit wager. Good luck everybody.
Nice query DBW. My only pushback is the mispriced HFA in season openers,imo 3 points under priced, I make the proper line 10.5
2
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:
This is the query. It is fading DEN which was very strong at home last season. week = 1 and HF and line < -5.2 and tpS(margin > 8.5 @ H) > 5.5 SU: 13-9 (2.7,59.1%) ATS: 4-17-1 (-5.9,19.0%) In Week 1, home favorites of 5.5 points or more that won at least 6 home games by 9+ points last season are a horrible 4-17-1 ATS, failing to cover by an average of 5.9 points. I am aware how weak rookies usually fare in their first road games, so it is just a one-unit wager. Good luck everybody.
Nice query DBW. My only pushback is the mispriced HFA in season openers,imo 3 points under priced, I make the proper line 10.5
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams: This is the query. It is fading DEN which was very strong at home last season. week = 1 and HF and line < -5.2 and tpS(margin > 8.5 @ H) > 5.5 SU: 13-9 (2.7,59.1%) ATS: 4-17-1 (-5.9,19.0%) In Week 1, home favorites of 5.5 points or more that won at least 6 home games by 9+ points last season are a horrible 4-17-1 ATS, failing to cover by an average of 5.9 points. I am aware how weak rookies usually fare in their first road games, so it is just a one-unit wager. Good luck everybody. Nice query DBW. My only pushback is the mispriced HFA in season openers,imo 3 points under priced, I make the proper line 10.5
I'll have to agree with you because I have no ability to make conventional power ratings, but I am happy with an 81% query even though I have had poor luck with queries hitting at 72%+ - maybe they have been due for imminent regression because they are "too hot."
0
Quote Originally Posted by jowchoo:
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams: This is the query. It is fading DEN which was very strong at home last season. week = 1 and HF and line < -5.2 and tpS(margin > 8.5 @ H) > 5.5 SU: 13-9 (2.7,59.1%) ATS: 4-17-1 (-5.9,19.0%) In Week 1, home favorites of 5.5 points or more that won at least 6 home games by 9+ points last season are a horrible 4-17-1 ATS, failing to cover by an average of 5.9 points. I am aware how weak rookies usually fare in their first road games, so it is just a one-unit wager. Good luck everybody. Nice query DBW. My only pushback is the mispriced HFA in season openers,imo 3 points under priced, I make the proper line 10.5
I'll have to agree with you because I have no ability to make conventional power ratings, but I am happy with an 81% query even though I have had poor luck with queries hitting at 72%+ - maybe they have been due for imminent regression because they are "too hot."
I agree with you on the titans DBW. I also appreciate your transparency and contributions here. Just one post a week one pick a week you don’t even have to revisit the original post and deal with others that disagree.
There have been many successful cappers that post one pick, maybe 2. That make one post on game day and let the pick do the talking.
Anyways I want to encourage to continue this on a weekly basis.
In this case I’m am using data, 2924 strength of schedule and 2024 line history for both teams to come up with my team rankings.
I have to make assumptions in this case about QB ratings and talent levels and my assumption is Ward has the possibility to be a top 20 passer in 2025.
I am assuming that Cam Ward will improve the Titans on offense and defense (offensive time of possession helps the defense, not as many turnovers help the defense, ect).
The guy is gullible of confidence and his own personal expectations.
Even though he is a rookie I am assuming he is a jolt of lightning to the Titans and this will be a competitive gane
Also this total is so low I’m betting:
Titans
Titans team total over
the full game over.
You do t have to respond as I was rude but to be fair I got you to contribute and your weekly take should be valued.
I will look up my query and post my findings another time.
Best wishes.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
1
I agree with you on the titans DBW. I also appreciate your transparency and contributions here. Just one post a week one pick a week you don’t even have to revisit the original post and deal with others that disagree.
There have been many successful cappers that post one pick, maybe 2. That make one post on game day and let the pick do the talking.
Anyways I want to encourage to continue this on a weekly basis.
In this case I’m am using data, 2924 strength of schedule and 2024 line history for both teams to come up with my team rankings.
I have to make assumptions in this case about QB ratings and talent levels and my assumption is Ward has the possibility to be a top 20 passer in 2025.
I am assuming that Cam Ward will improve the Titans on offense and defense (offensive time of possession helps the defense, not as many turnovers help the defense, ect).
The guy is gullible of confidence and his own personal expectations.
Even though he is a rookie I am assuming he is a jolt of lightning to the Titans and this will be a competitive gane
Also this total is so low I’m betting:
Titans
Titans team total over
the full game over.
You do t have to respond as I was rude but to be fair I got you to contribute and your weekly take should be valued.
I will look up my query and post my findings another time.
Broncos, with their 2 new running backs and BEST defense in NFL Absolutely destroy Titans with their rookie HC and starting rookie QB..
Tennessee won't score over 10 points..Payton wants to Finally Start a season with a resounding victory....and will follow up the following week on road defeating an overmatched Colts team to go 2-0 to start a promising season...
GL Dogbite..hope you heed our advice
2
Broncos, with their 2 new running backs and BEST defense in NFL Absolutely destroy Titans with their rookie HC and starting rookie QB..
Tennessee won't score over 10 points..Payton wants to Finally Start a season with a resounding victory....and will follow up the following week on road defeating an overmatched Colts team to go 2-0 to start a promising season...
I have no problem with you supporting your team. I just refrain from my fandom when betting and posting.
I appreciate what the Broncos are building but I also have a take that they are not ready to be laying -7.5 yet.
My preference for Denver is to start slow. I would and will be backing them when their lines are more advantageous. The hype on Denver is very strong. I don’t think the linesmakers are fully in tune with eier team yet. I also believe they have used this line against favorite better’s assumptions .in this case. There is so much unknown in this game and the way I see it, it benefits taking the points.
Best wishes Best_bets.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
@best_bets
I have no problem with you supporting your team. I just refrain from my fandom when betting and posting.
I appreciate what the Broncos are building but I also have a take that they are not ready to be laying -7.5 yet.
My preference for Denver is to start slow. I would and will be backing them when their lines are more advantageous. The hype on Denver is very strong. I don’t think the linesmakers are fully in tune with eier team yet. I also believe they have used this line against favorite better’s assumptions .in this case. There is so much unknown in this game and the way I see it, it benefits taking the points.
I took Den -7 two months ago because I knew the hype would push the number past 7, and I didn’t want to pay it. I’m fine with laying a TD against a flawed Tennessee team that reached for most of its picks (per Warren Sharp). Week 1 QBs have struggled against the blitz the last five years (per Sharp’s book), so why would I expect a rookie in a new offense, on a team with flaws, to fare better against a Top 5 defense? I’m not saying to put a mortgage payment on Denver, but I won’t lose any sleep about 1-3 units on the Broncos -7 either.
2
I took Den -7 two months ago because I knew the hype would push the number past 7, and I didn’t want to pay it. I’m fine with laying a TD against a flawed Tennessee team that reached for most of its picks (per Warren Sharp). Week 1 QBs have struggled against the blitz the last five years (per Sharp’s book), so why would I expect a rookie in a new offense, on a team with flaws, to fare better against a Top 5 defense? I’m not saying to put a mortgage payment on Denver, but I won’t lose any sleep about 1-3 units on the Broncos -7 either.
@best_bets I have no problem with you supporting your team. I just refrain from my fandom when betting and posting. I appreciate what the Broncos are building but I also have a take that they are not ready to be laying -7.5 yet. My preference for Denver is to start slow. I would and will be backing them when their lines are more advantageous. The hype on Denver is very strong. I don’t think the linesmakers are fully in tune with eier team yet. I also believe they have used this line against favorite better’s assumptions .in this case. There is so much unknown in this game and the way I see it, it benefits taking the points. Best wishes Best_bets.
I would wager that the number of times you back a TD + favorite in the NFL in a season could be counted with 1 or 2 fingers....lol
1
Quote Originally Posted by spottie2935:
@best_bets I have no problem with you supporting your team. I just refrain from my fandom when betting and posting. I appreciate what the Broncos are building but I also have a take that they are not ready to be laying -7.5 yet. My preference for Denver is to start slow. I would and will be backing them when their lines are more advantageous. The hype on Denver is very strong. I don’t think the linesmakers are fully in tune with eier team yet. I also believe they have used this line against favorite better’s assumptions .in this case. There is so much unknown in this game and the way I see it, it benefits taking the points. Best wishes Best_bets.
I would wager that the number of times you back a TD + favorite in the NFL in a season could be counted with 1 or 2 fingers....lol
I took Den -7 two months ago because I knew the hype would push the number past 7, and I didn’t want to pay it. I’m fine with laying a TD against a flawed Tennessee team that reached for most of its picks (per Warren Sharp). Week 1 QBs have struggled against the blitz the last five years (per Sharp’s book), so why would I expect a rookie in a new offense, on a team with flaws, to fare better against a Top 5 defense? I’m not saying to put a mortgage payment on Denver, but I won’t lose any sleep about 1-3 units on the Broncos -7 either.
Spot on!!
Mispriced HFA for season openers has cost those unaware a lot of cabbage!
0
Quote Originally Posted by Sidehatch:
I took Den -7 two months ago because I knew the hype would push the number past 7, and I didn’t want to pay it. I’m fine with laying a TD against a flawed Tennessee team that reached for most of its picks (per Warren Sharp). Week 1 QBs have struggled against the blitz the last five years (per Sharp’s book), so why would I expect a rookie in a new offense, on a team with flaws, to fare better against a Top 5 defense? I’m not saying to put a mortgage payment on Denver, but I won’t lose any sleep about 1-3 units on the Broncos -7 either.
Spot on!!
Mispriced HFA for season openers has cost those unaware a lot of cabbage!
Well put..I can't wait to see first half lines and ALL alternative lines..Yes, the hype is very real but it's a substantially better team we're talking about. Bo would have been ROY if it wasn't for Daniel's in Washington..Bo set so many records last year and he says the game is "slowing down " for him.
Can't wait to watch the new running backs. Payton is playing starters first 2 series Saturday night in preseason opener in S.F.
1
@Sidehatch
Well put..I can't wait to see first half lines and ALL alternative lines..Yes, the hype is very real but it's a substantially better team we're talking about. Bo would have been ROY if it wasn't for Daniel's in Washington..Bo set so many records last year and he says the game is "slowing down " for him.
Can't wait to watch the new running backs. Payton is playing starters first 2 series Saturday night in preseason opener in S.F.
Spottie, thanks for all of your kind words and goodwill in Comment #8. It is very clear to me that you spend a lot more time and effort handicapping than I do, and your understanding of the game far exceeds mine. I am a recreational bettor risking only single-digit units, and I never want sports handicapping to become a boring chore.
I appreciate the encouragement to do so, but as of now I don't have plans to post my own thread with a weekly pick. I may start a Week 1 GB thread, but I might just visit others' threads.
0
Spottie, thanks for all of your kind words and goodwill in Comment #8. It is very clear to me that you spend a lot more time and effort handicapping than I do, and your understanding of the game far exceeds mine. I am a recreational bettor risking only single-digit units, and I never want sports handicapping to become a boring chore.
I appreciate the encouragement to do so, but as of now I don't have plans to post my own thread with a weekly pick. I may start a Week 1 GB thread, but I might just visit others' threads.
You’re on the other side and with a teaser. Your advantage. It would take a minor miracle for you to lose. I’m not betting over 20% of my Bankroll on one game though. I can afford a loss. I won’t lose +7.5 and if I do so be it. Even less confidence betting the Titans.
-1 is a spectacular bet. Don’t change your mind and make a new post on this wager. That was silly of you to recommend and then reconsider. Oh well that’s you.
good luck on this one you will win.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
@jowchoo
You’re on the other side and with a teaser. Your advantage. It would take a minor miracle for you to lose. I’m not betting over 20% of my Bankroll on one game though. I can afford a loss. I won’t lose +7.5 and if I do so be it. Even less confidence betting the Titans.
-1 is a spectacular bet. Don’t change your mind and make a new post on this wager. That was silly of you to recommend and then reconsider. Oh well that’s you.
You don’t have to chase me down in another posters thread. Wait a few weeks. I’ll post my thread. Then you can fire away and show and tell the world how bad I hurt your feelings this off-season.
It’s true I hurt you. I’m not sorry because I’m right.
Like I said just use my thread. It’s more peaceful to the forum that way. Unless iif of course you don’t care. Thats another story.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
@jowchoo
You don’t have to chase me down in another posters thread. Wait a few weeks. I’ll post my thread. Then you can fire away and show and tell the world how bad I hurt your feelings this off-season.
It’s true I hurt you. I’m not sorry because I’m right.
Like I said just use my thread. It’s more peaceful to the forum that way. Unless iif of course you don’t care. Thats another story.
Denver Overachieved last year and now the league has film on Bo Nix. A lot of Love & homerism for this team. I don't see repeat success. Maybe 8 wins this year.
1
Denver Overachieved last year and now the league has film on Bo Nix. A lot of Love & homerism for this team. I don't see repeat success. Maybe 8 wins this year.
I agree with you on the titans DBW. I also appreciate your transparency and contributions here. Just one post a week one pick a week you don’t even have to revisit the original post and deal with others that disagree. There have been many successful cappers that post one pick, maybe 2. That make one post on game day and let the pick do the talking. Anyways I want to encourage to continue this on a weekly basis. In this case I’m am using data, 2924 strength of schedule and 2024 line history for both teams to come up with my team rankings. I have to make assumptions in this case about QB ratings and talent levels and my assumption is Ward has the possibility to be a top 20 passer in 2025. I am assuming that Cam Ward will improve the Titans on offense and defense (offensive time of possession helps the defense, not as many turnovers help the defense, ect). The guy is gullible of confidence and his own personal expectations. Even though he is a rookie I am assuming he is a jolt of lightning to the Titans and this will be a competitive gane Also this total is so low I’m betting: Titans Titans team total over the full game over. You do t have to respond as I was rude but to be fair I got you to contribute and your weekly take should be valued. I will look up my query and post my findings another time. Best wishes.
This is spot on and such a great point . It's just another reason why I put such a high premium on who the QB is when 'capping. Also, Credit to DBW , because I think he pointed out earlier how TEN had a great PASS DEF last year, but gave up the 3rd most in points. A terrible QB and team that commits lots of TOs will do that to you, leading to lots of short fields for the DEF to defend.
I'm not sure what to make of Cam Ward, as such any rookie QB that steps into the league.. They are such a Wild Card, but he may be "better" than last year's TEN QBs as you elude to. Confidence is key in any rookie QB, along with a good coaching staff to support and develop you. And it's the reason why I'm not very keen on him to have a strong rookie season in TEN.
1
Quote Originally Posted by spottie2935:
I agree with you on the titans DBW. I also appreciate your transparency and contributions here. Just one post a week one pick a week you don’t even have to revisit the original post and deal with others that disagree. There have been many successful cappers that post one pick, maybe 2. That make one post on game day and let the pick do the talking. Anyways I want to encourage to continue this on a weekly basis. In this case I’m am using data, 2924 strength of schedule and 2024 line history for both teams to come up with my team rankings. I have to make assumptions in this case about QB ratings and talent levels and my assumption is Ward has the possibility to be a top 20 passer in 2025. I am assuming that Cam Ward will improve the Titans on offense and defense (offensive time of possession helps the defense, not as many turnovers help the defense, ect). The guy is gullible of confidence and his own personal expectations. Even though he is a rookie I am assuming he is a jolt of lightning to the Titans and this will be a competitive gane Also this total is so low I’m betting: Titans Titans team total over the full game over. You do t have to respond as I was rude but to be fair I got you to contribute and your weekly take should be valued. I will look up my query and post my findings another time. Best wishes.
This is spot on and such a great point . It's just another reason why I put such a high premium on who the QB is when 'capping. Also, Credit to DBW , because I think he pointed out earlier how TEN had a great PASS DEF last year, but gave up the 3rd most in points. A terrible QB and team that commits lots of TOs will do that to you, leading to lots of short fields for the DEF to defend.
I'm not sure what to make of Cam Ward, as such any rookie QB that steps into the league.. They are such a Wild Card, but he may be "better" than last year's TEN QBs as you elude to. Confidence is key in any rookie QB, along with a good coaching staff to support and develop you. And it's the reason why I'm not very keen on him to have a strong rookie season in TEN.
The true reality is that any or multiple players can and will get injured in preseason practice and games. Also suspensions can take place. Why just today the NFL announced Addison will be suspended for the first 3 games. May all of us make great bets, share information and win some money this year.
1
The true reality is that any or multiple players can and will get injured in preseason practice and games. Also suspensions can take place. Why just today the NFL announced Addison will be suspended for the first 3 games. May all of us make great bets, share information and win some money this year.
The true reality is that any or multiple players can and will get injured in preseason practice and games. Also suspensions can take place. Why just today the NFL announced Addison will be suspended for the first 3 games. May all of us make great bets, share information and win some money this year.
0
The true reality is that any or multiple players can and will get injured in preseason practice and games. Also suspensions can take place. Why just today the NFL announced Addison will be suspended for the first 3 games. May all of us make great bets, share information and win some money this year.
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