Although I like the Bucs as a bonified playoff contender, I could see an early season overreaction with Brady now. I think the Jets will cause some problems and. I believe BAL will dropoff in covering as a big chalk. Disagree with BUFF though, I'm on their bandwagon and had a good read and betting success, both ways, on them last season. If there aren't any fans however, that changes my thoughts and even the game, and results may, at least early on, become less predictable.
The Jets will be catching points their 1st 3 games, @ Buff, vs SF, @ Indy. I can see them covering 2 of those games, under normal circumstances, and that remains to be seen. Road games @ KC and SEA will be tuff to win but they'll be getting a cluster of points, and we're only talking about covering the spread. Let's just hope they play
We will have football this year, but it could be the last year. The country is on the brink of devolving into full-on communism. People have no idea how bad it's going to get. The Bolshevik revolution will look like a walk in the park compared to what's coming. Enjoy what little is left of your freedom while you can.
Finished some in-depth analysis of Buffalo. Unfortunately, I project them to regress this year and finish under their season win total. They most likely will not win the AFC East. Cincinnati will be bad and Zac Taylor could be the year's first coaching casualty. Detroit's Matt Patricia won't be far behind him. If he starts slow, old Martha Ford will give home the axe. Miami will be bad, but Flores won't be fired. Cards a dark horse to win their division.
I think Miami should really get Tua out there asap during the season. I see them taking a big step this year with all their new additions. Current O/u for them is 6.5 and that looks really nice. That defense can easily become above average this year. They have two good backs now and are an improved O line away from being a possible contender in the future...
I agree Phillip, but Flores says he doesn't want to start the rookie.
The long answer is 6 pages plus charts and graphs. Here's the short answer:
1) Josh Allen finished last year ranked 32nd in completion percentage, 28th in yards per pass attempt, and 27th in passer rating.
2) Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll's points per game average after six years: 15, 17, 21, 13, 17, 20
3) Since 2013, teams that won 3 or more games over their season win total are 23-11-2 under their win total the following year, including 9-1-1 under their total if they scored 23 or less points. (From "Week One NFL Winners 2020 edition.)
4) Since 2008, five other quarterbacks completed 58% of their college passes and were drafted in the top 100: Jake Locker, Andrew Walter, Christian Hackenberg, Connor Cook, C.J. Beathard. (From "Week One NFL Winners 2020 edition.)
5) Josh Allen has a 71% fumble recovery rate due for regression. (From "Week One NFL Winners 2020 edition.)
6) Sean McDermott is 25-25 SU, basically a .500 coach, yet he needs to win over that to cover Buffalo's win total.
7) Little to no dropoff from New England, improved competition from the Jets.
* For the Bills the question is if Allen can take the next step. I highly doubt it.
* I like the Cardinals.
Other:
* IMO Rams will be a big disappointed this year (again). They don't have strong roster and on top of that they have new defensive and offensive coordinator in COVID times...that will be horrible for the first 3 (at least) when they face Dallas, @Eagles and @Bills.
* Panthers do also have (a lof of) new staff/COVID troubles to work out for the first games.
It's hard to like the Jets.....I like their defensive coordinator, but their head coach has not done anything in his career, as he has covered only 44% of his games, he just has a Hue Jackson feel about him to me.
Hard to know what Darnold will do this season with new receivers. They are an indicated play in week one versus the Bills, but I don't know if I can pull the trigger.
Very good research on the Bills and awesome points about Josh Allen...why teams draft guys that have poor accuracy in college when it has been proven that they are mediocre as pro quarterbacks is a mystery to me. As one other poster pointed out here on covers...he is a fullback playing quarterback.
Allen will not be a starting quarterback in another 2-3 years.
I would still put the Patriots as favorites in the division.
Like the Cardinals to be a covering machine this season, especially on the road, but I'll guess that it will take another year before they start winning games consistently.
If the Saints do win the division this year, which is only a 50-50 possibility, this will be their last hurrah....Winston is not going to suddenly become a good quarterback.
Good points!
Charon 84, your opinion regarding Covid and its effects on teams with new coaching staffs, coaches and players is really sharp. Football, unlike other sports, is much more about the X’s and O’s , preparation and practice than pure talent. I think teams with few changes during the off season will have a big advantage this season, if it takes place.
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