Quote Originally Posted by mrusso:
Curious DS, why do you think Buffalo will regress?
The long answer is 6 pages plus charts and graphs. Here's the short answer:
1) Josh Allen finished last year ranked 32nd in completion percentage, 28th in yards per pass attempt, and 27th in passer rating.
2) Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll's points per game average after six years: 15, 17, 21, 13, 17, 20
3) Since 2013, teams that won 3 or more games over their season win total are 23-11-2 under their win total the following year, including 9-1-1 under their total if they scored 23 or less points. (From "Week One NFL Winners 2020 edition.)
4) Since 2008, five other quarterbacks completed 58% of their college passes and were drafted in the top 100: Jake Locker, Andrew Walter, Christian Hackenberg, Connor Cook, C.J. Beathard. (From "Week One NFL Winners 2020 edition.)
5) Josh Allen has a 71% fumble recovery rate due for regression. (From "Week One NFL Winners 2020 edition.)
6) Sean McDermott is 25-25 SU, basically a .500 coach, yet he needs to win over that to cover Buffalo's win total.
7) Little to no dropoff from New England, improved competition from the Jets.