Talk me out of playing Bucs ML large

I've been waiting for this spot for about 3 weeks, and the events that have led up to it have skewed the odds in my favor even to the point where im receiving points.. Tell me why the Packers can win in this spot, because everyone sees them as better than they are.. the bucs are not some great team, but their D matches up for them and that packers defense just ain't close in every game iv'e watched this year in comparison. Brady can do enough on that D and Rodgers will finally be playing one with enough resistance to limit him about as much as a team can. While the 9'ers d last year was better, I see this matchup as similar to those two games Green Bay played against them last year. Both teams rested and build up for this game for weeks, I just think the Bucs are better team and will win at home. Tell me if im wrong 

I am leaning Bucs too...what about their injury situation? 

start reading my post and you'll see why I think packers can win

I won't talk you out of it.

The Packers have only 1 good DB in their secondary, and he's real good. The rest are trash. Arod has been bailing that D out all year.

Mike Evans played on one leg last week, he should be healthier. Scottie Miller is back. Godwin is questionable but should be ready to go.

Packers getting Devante back this week. Look what Rodgers has been doing with practice squad receivers... Bucs lost and struggled against the Saints when the Packers beat them without Devante... Packers coming off a much needed bye week. Rodgers is on a "FU" tour and playing the best he has in the last 10 years. I just don't think Brady will be able to keep up. Packers are currently averaging 38 points a game. This will obviously be their toughest challenge, but I like the packers in this spot.

BOL

-Kfenn

I think Tampa is too undisciplined a team, makes too many mistakes and commits too many dumb penalties. They are currently tied with AZ as the most penalized team at a horrendous rate of 8.4 penalties/game. You might assume they'd be working on fixing it but if they are they're going in the wrong direction because they're averaging a league high 9.3/gm for the last three. What's worse news is this is no aberration. They averaged 8.3/gm over 16 in 2019.

I'm sure Brady still doesn't miss dealing with Bellichick, but he's not accustomed to playing on a team that beats itself like this. I do think the Pack is somewhat overrated but they're still not a team that you can afford to give 80 - 100 penalty yards to and still beat.  

Hope I'm wrong. Before the season began I jumped on Tampa for NFC champs at +850.They've got enough talent on both sides of the ball to be great but I think it's very unlikely at this point. Arians is who he is and he's not going to drill the guys on fundamentals. I just don't see it happening.

That said I am playing the Over 56 in this game. Best of luck whatever you play.

GL    

Road favorites off a bye hitting at like 67% or something close to that...someone had that in a thread here, can't confirm.  I bet TB ml earlier in week already, bol 

interesting matchup.  Packers haven't played a good defense and TB hasn't played a good offense.  lets see who breaks first.  Ill take the team that doesn't turn the ball over and the one more disciplined.  Packers it is.

Game overly emotional. Can be a close game or a blowout for both sides.

Personally, I think that some "bad" calls from the referees might change the outcome of this game baaadly. And that's why I wont bet here(maybe a nickel on GB just for fun).

Anyway, GL with your picks!

Buccaneers lost their stud defensive lineman Vear he was the King of the run stop so there's a gap to fill there's that. The Buccaneers WHOLE offense aside from Ronald Jones, Cameron Brate, Justin Watson and rookie Tyler Johnson is injured, Devante Adams is steaming from his rim because he didn't get played last game so he wants to make up that yardage in a mean way, and Rodgers, along with Brady, are playing the tie breaker between the two of them which is a fucking huge notch. I bested Brady, or I bested Rodgers. 

Sorry man, it's a pick em game for a reason.

Live bets for this one. Choose your side before the game starts and catch a live line after the other team scores.

Ok i take back all the injuries they actually are looking in great shape now for this week wow. Now that's interesting. Godwin Evans both are practicing and looking good. If they are both playing and in good shape I like them that's my opinion just based on talent and Buccaneers having the Goat. I would feel better if Gronks injury tag went away so they can rely on 2 tight ends. Personally I like the Bucs teased with the Over but I know the teasers are not so popular.

Tampa Bay is a mediocre team but added Brady IMO. The Bears exposed Tampa’s bad offensive line and the Bears were able to go right down the field to win when needed I see Rodgers putting 35 on Tampa. As well as getting to Brady a few times. GB is the play IMO BOL.

Kenny Clark DL is back for GB. That's big.  Vear out for Tampa will help Pack running game.

 I think Brady will be on a mission. No doubt itll be the feature game on Sunday.

This is from the Pack's Dope sheet:

In games immediately following its bye week, Green Bay has won 16 of its last 24 (.667), including wins in seven of the last 11. u Since 2009, Green Bay is 63-40-1 (.597) overall after the bye, including a 5-1 record last season.

I also saw a snip earlier today that I cant find right now, but I think Rogers record coming off a bye is 8 -2

GL

New sheriff in town, and his name is Rodgers. 

I kind of agree with this. Neither team is going to win going away. It will be decided by less than a TD. Also a great opportunity to tease either side and move on from there. 

I may pick a side for this

Parlaying my Large Bama win tonight onto Bucs ML tomorrow, im taking my chance with the odds here in the spot. 

Why do you wanna he talked out of it?

 Great spot

 I’m  riding with the goat

The bucs defense isn’t as good as advertised they gave up 31 to Herbert and the chargers every other team had crap qbs other than Brees 

I agree Bucs bounce back from their loss to Chicago and get the W. 

GL

All the smart, sophisticated ESPN analysts chose GB. Know what that means...Fade alert 

I would take the Over 55

i dont follow gridiron at all but if they are anything like the espn basketball "analysts" then DEFINITELY fade them..talking heads on these shows are the squarest of the square and only ever see things on surface level.