SDQL WEEK 12 RECAP (SHAME)

AFTER WEEK 11

SIDES: (87-80)  (1.5% BR)

TOTALS: ( 31-25 )  (1.5%BR)

TEASERS: ( 106-117) (.25%BR)

SIDES:

1. NE -3  (L)

2.DEN -2.5  (W)

3.LAR +1.5  (W)

4. TENN -3 -120  (W)

DET -7-120  (L)

6. DALL -10.5  (W)

7. SF -6.5  (W)

8. TB +3  (L)

9. PITT -2  (W)

10. NO-1  (W)

11.PHIL -2.5  (W)

12.BALT -3  (W)

(9-3)

YTD:  (96-83)

NOW THE SHAME:

ANCHOR TEASERS:

TEASERS GO (26-6-1)

THE ANCHOR DETROIT LOSSES ;-(

SO,  INSTEAD of a NICE +20 , I NET A -35 for a SWING OF 55 (14% of BR)

YTD:

(106-152)

AFTER WEEK 12

SIDES: (96-83)  (+5%)

TOTALS: ( 31-25 )  (+5.25%)

TEASERS: ( 106-152)  -120  (-19%)

I HAD MUCH BETTER RESULTS USING A TOTAL AS MY ANCHOR, GOING BACK TO THAT METHOD.

WEEK 13 ANCHOR.......DET / NO OVER 38

1. ATL +4

2. CAR +13

3. CINC +15

4. TB +1

5. NO +10

6. NE +12

7. SF +5

8. SEA +14

9. AR +12.5

10. MIA -2.5

11. LAR +2

12.KC / GB OV 36

13. CAR / TB OV 31.5

14. IND / TENN OV 36

15. ARZ / PITT OV 33

16. LAC / NE OV 35

17. CLEV / LAR OV 32

18. SF / PHIL UN 53

19.CINC /  JAX UN 48

20. DEN / HOU OV 38.5

ANCHOR #2   SF / PHIL UNDER 53

ANCHOR #3  DEN / HOUS OVER 38.5

More SATELLITES:

21. NE / LAC UNDER 47

22. DEN +10

@jowchoo

 CORRECT: the saints wasn’t won, loss to ATL

@jowchoo

 If NO (Saints) WON as u marked . I HIT MY PARLAY BIG BUT NOPE loss

Thankyou.

CORRECTION

NO-1 (L)

YTD (95-84)

23. PIT / ARZ UNDER 48

24. NYJ / ATL UNDER 40.5

25. WAS / MIA UNDER 56

26. SEA / DAL UNDER 54

27. IND / TEN UNDER 49.5

28. CIN / JAX OVER  31

29. IND +5.5

30. LAC +2

31. DET +3

32. KC +1

SIDES:  FA and tA(wins) > oA(wins) and week > 10 and season = 2023 and line > -13.5.....(8-0)

1. INDY -1

2.LAC -4.5

3. DET -4.5

4. ATL -2.5

5. MIA -9.5

6. KC -5.5

@jowchoo

 Can u double check det-4@No ?? Why all news said the saints is going to upset Det this game?

Nothing special about DETROIT, it just fits the above criteria which is undefeated this year (8-0)

GL tonight and this weekend 

@Fuse

7. LAR -3 -120

8. JAX -8.5

9. DEN +3.5

10. ARZ +5.5

33. JAX -2

34. ARZ +12

Good luck.

@jowchoo

 Just wanted to see if you could find something out for me through sdql. Note, I don't think that it's going to help out on future bets, but I'm just interested because I think that it's something historical. 

Since their loss to the Jets, they have won 5 straight games.

In their last 4 games, they have been losing at halftime, but still won those games.

On the season, they are 5-0 su in games where they were losing at halftime.

How often has this happened in nfl history? Let alone, winning 4 straight under such circumstances?

I believe that the win probability on teams that are losing at halftime are pretty low, not sure of the exact figure. 

So I think the results should be interesting. If there are any teams in the past who've done such things, and who were those teams. 

Is it a sign of a great coaching, or just over all good teams, or is this just flat out luck?

[Quote: Originally Posted by undermysac]@jowchoo  Just wanted to see if you could find something out for me through sdql. Note, I don't think that it's going to help out on future bets, but I'm just interested because I think that it's something historical.  Since their loss to the Jets, they have won 5 straight games. In their last 4 games, they have been losing at halftime, but still won those games. On the season, they are 5-0 su in games where they were losing at halftime. How often has this happened in nfl history? Let alone, winning 4 straight under such circumstances? I believe that the win probability on teams that are losing at halftime are pretty low, not sure of the exact figure.  So I think the results should be interesting. If there are any teams in the past who've done such things, and who were those teams.  Is it a sign of a great coaching, or just over all good teams, or is this just flat out luck?[/Quote

Sorry above my paygrade. will look a little deeper and report back if anything is there.

UMS, the query is actually not complex:

p:W and p:M2 < 0 and pp:W and pp:M2 < 0 and ppp:W and ppp:M2 < 0 and pppp:W and pppp:M2 < 0

p:W = won the previous game

p:M2 < 0 = the team was trailing at the half (margin after the 2nd quarter was negative)

Each additional p means another game previous.

ATS:  1-1-0  It's only happened twice and the database goes back to 1989.  Obviously the sample size is insignificant, but it could be considered as "historical."

THX.

I tried M2=P1+P2....Same thing???

11. SF.2.5 -120

@DogbiteWilliams

 Thanks for the response. 

So to be clear, and in English(I'm not computer language savy), it's only happened twice in history that a team has won 4 games in a row where they were losing at halftime?

Or it's only happened twice in history that a team won 5 games in a season where they trailed at halftime?

Philly has done both this year