** San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles **

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles

This is a game that I have had circled on the calendar for the past few weeks, not just because of my futures bets but because of the situational spot. 

The look ahead line last week for this game was Philadelphia -1.5 and now the line sits at SF -3. That is a massive line movement of 4.5 points. What gives? Did SF really look that impressive against the Seattle Seahawks or did the Eagles really look that bad against the Bills? I would argue neither. What is moving that line is PROFESSIONAL MONEY. Sharp money was on the Niners Sunday night and the line immediately reversed. 

There are many trends and angles to consider when handicapping this game:

1. The Philadelphia Eagles just played an overtime game where their defense was on the field for a total of 95 plays. That will have some carry over effect to this game and this is a favorable spot for the 49ers who had the Thursday Night game and will be coming off of 10 days rest. 

2. The Eagles are banged up. Flexer Cox is questionable and Jordan Davis was hurt in the last game. Lane Johnson has a groin injury but it looks like he is going to try to give it a go (their record without him is under 500). Zach Cunningham is out and their LB core is the weak spot in this defense in coverage of intermediate routes. All of this plays into the 49ers strengths.

3. Revenge spot for the 49ers after their playoff loss last year. I love the quotes from Deebo this week talking shit to the Eagles and basically calling James Bradberry a scrub. Frankly, I agree with him. The Eagles secondary has been getting torched and Slay looks a shell of himself. The 49ers have had this game circled on their calendar since last year and they will show up extra motivated while the Eagles have a divisional opponent in the Dallas Cowboys on deck next week in a look ahead spot. 

4. The 49ers record when both Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams play is 8-0 and they have a margin of victory of 21 points in those game

Key Trends:

Eagles and Bills went to overtime last week—teams coming off of an overtime game are 125-157 SU and 130-150-2 ATS in the last decade. 

Teams coming off OT where their opponent ran 90+ plays are 6-12 SU since 2000. 

The Line:

The current line at most books sits at Philadelphia +3 which is a key number. The game has a decent probability of landing on this number with the 49ers winning by 3 points. If you grabbed the early look ahead line then you have an excellent position. My concern is the weather and missed extra points, especially from the 49ers rookie kicker Jake Moody. There ML currently sits at 49ers -150 to -160 at most books and I do not like the number at 3. For me, I took this line earlier in the week when it was 49ers -2 and at this point I would lay the juice and lay the ML. I just love this spot for the 49ers on extended rest in a revenge game against an Eagles team coming off a brutal overtime win with Dallas on deck next week. 

I am in Vegas and this will be one of my biggest bets of the year. Any insight, comments, and opinions are always welcome. Use the information and tail or fade and to make your own, informed decision.

Got it at -2.5 .. love the 49ers in this spot 

@IGetMoney38

@WilliamMunny

Mine as well. Nice write up bro

Niners play of the millenium

@Wizerguy

 Thanks Wizer, stay hot brother.

@JimmyGape

@Ih8coldweather

 49ers will be my only play for the day tomorrow, let’s get it brother

@Ih8coldweather

 Good luck today!!!!!

Thanks everybody, let’s win together.  

I put another 2K on their futures since it will likely change tomorrow if they stomp the Eagle. Right now it’s 4.25/1.

I feel like there is still value at this number especially if 49ers have a commanding win. They have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way, where the only major challenge for them the rest of the season is Baltimore. 

Dallas could beat Philly next week and Dallas has a tough schedule the next few weeks, which would set the 49ers up nicely for home field in the NFC. 

@Ih8coldweather

 Welcome to Vegas man! if I see you at a book tomorrow I owe you a drink for all the insights over the year. 

SF lets shake it !!!

Bol!

Eagles Defense this season

opponent points per game 22.4 = 20th in NFL

opponent pass yards per game 255.7 = 29th in NFL

opponent TD-INT ratio 23-6 = 30th in NFL

opponent 3rd down percentage is 45.5% = 30th in NFL

I'm not sold on the 49ers. I feel they're a bit overrated. Here's why, first they can't play from behind. Shanahan hits the panic button and strategy goes out the window. He becomes predictable and incoherent at the same time. Don't get me wrong the 49ers have all the tools, sometimes that's not enough. The bottom line is the Eagles know how to win games. That's what separates them from the 49ers. As far as players marking a game on their calendars, that went out in the early 90's. Today all players want to do is switch jerseys on the field and show it on social media. All though I grew up a 49er fan, that doesn't make me bet with my heart. I will not allow these soap opera sports shows or Las Vegas to alter my betting I.Q. With that said, give me the Eagles 26 49ers 21. 

Lets cash together 

Good win boys, love it when a good plan comes together. 

Ih8coldweather - okay, just how much fun did you have yesterday in a Vegas sportsbook as you watched the Niners offense take off in the second quarter, lol? Watching six consecutive drives resulting in San Francisco touchdowns, you had to be almost giggling, right? The rested Niners against the weary Eagles played out just as you predicted. Congrats on the big win and the fun afternoon.