Ravens 20/1?

Are they worth a super bowl futures?  Typically i am not a fan of run first qbs as i cant recall last running qb to win super bowl.  AFC is also loaded but i do think with Lamar locked up, some added wr help, & good running game that was absolutely ravaged by injuries last year that they could make a run.  Very tough division & tough AFC is the challenge.  Took Dallas 20/1 on the other side as i feel the NFC is only Phili, SF, Dallas, Det & obviously a few surprise teams.  thoughts??

Definitely a long shot considering how stack AFC is but once they get past that they're in the clear but its worth a try you'll never know... 

I personally don't see any value there at 20-1.  At 50-1, it might be something to consider, but I don't think there's a 5% chance they make it to the SB, let alone win it.  Who's the backup QB gonna be in BAL?  Because in my mind, there's almost a 50/50 chance that he'll be the one finishing the season.

With Lamar the Great back in the fold their win total is 8.5. He really moves the needle doesn't he? There's minimum 4 qbs (and I'm being kind) in the AFC that he has no chance of beating.

He's got 1 playoff win in 5 years, OVERRATED. Ravens should've taken the best offer they could've for him.

Prediction: He's this years version of Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson & Aaron Rogers - got big money and the best fade material ever.

@Killer_B

I respect your NFL knowledge and always look at your picks.  But I have to question why you say that and who?  I will preface my question with the usual stuff I put in here about Jackson:

I understand folks do not like QBs, or any player, to make too much money.  I have a lot of issues with Jackson and how he has not learned to read defenses better.  I am not a Ravens fan or really a Jackson fan.

Now he has a new OC and no telling if that is good or bad and if he can help Jackson improve or not.

But if you look at how well he has done, as far as winning, compared to other QBs that are highly paid, I do not see that as a problem.

I think Jackson’s perceived injury-proneness is somewhat exaggerated.

First few years he had not missed a game, regular season or playoffs.

Got the concussion after a wild snap when he had to hurry and get the ball and throw it away.  He got intentional grounding but got hit and his head driven into the ground.

Got the ankle sprain AFTER he had thrown the ball and the LB hit him in his lower leg.

Got the knee sprain when he was sacked from behind and his knee got driven into the ground when the LB landed on his back.

So, these were not scrambling or designed-run injuries.  However, folks tend to perceive that he gets injured because he is a scrambling QB.

But he gets hurt just like most QBs get hurt — while throwing the ball or just after.  The only case that could be made is he held the ball too long.  But it is mostly a case of numbers and he just happened to get hurt on plays where he may not get hurt in that situation again.  So, he could easily go for years again with no injuries.

Only Mahomes and Jimmy G have a better winning percentage than he does.

Only Mahomes, Jimmy G, Wilson and Jackson do NOT have a losing record against teams that have a winning record.

Not even to mention how good his ATS record is compared to the others.

So, in the AFC only Mahomes has a better record than Jackson does.

I get that folks do not like him for various reasons.  But there is no doubt at all that he gives the Ravens the best chance to win.

To knock his playoff record is deceptive.  It is HARD enough to get to the playoffs, let alone win or to win more than one game.  

In the AFC, only Mahomes, Burrow, Wilson have winning playoff records — even Rodgers has a losing record in the playoffs.

Winning is a team statistic more than a QB statistic, BUT playoff record even more so.  You only get one shot at winning your first game.  Whereas, in a season if you lose your first game you can still have a great record.  

I get the a lot of folks value playoff wins.  But again, there are a lot of factors that go into a one-game matchup.

Plus, like I keep saying the fan’s expectations sometimes are set way too high.  Most fans should be happy with just a winning record because it is so hard to do.  Very few teams have consistently winning teams or QBs over many years.  They are very hard to find.  The Ravens should be glad to have Jackson — there is not an easy replacement to find.

I am interested in what 4, and for sure more than 4, AFC QBs you think Jackson has NO chance to beat?

Mahomes and Burrow are the only two that are clearly better and have better teams to beat him with.

Jackson has a losing record versus Mahomes — but who doesn’t right now?  But even KC can be beat.

Dolphins winning the SB if Tua stays healthy...Team is LOADED....When healthy last year...he lead the NFL in pretty much every statistic...

They have also tried to add some talent on the defensive side of the ball.  

It's not just the actual plays where LJ gets hurt that are important.  It's all those plays beforehand, where he runs the ball and gets hit.  Every hit adds up, game-wise and season-wise.

@bluecompass

Maybe so, but those have not been the ones that put him out of games.  Yes, they bang you up just like any football player.  

It is tricky, because that part of his game is what helps him be such a winner.  So, they cannot take that away from him.  But it most certainly is important the plays that he actually gets hurt on.  Were they just a couple of freakish hits and awkward landing?  Did he hold the ball too long on the one?  Did the line let the rush through too soon?  Why was there a wild snap that forced him into that situation?

These plays are sort of outlier plays.  He does not seem to look for contact like Newton did.  He is more of an elusive runner.  

But I get your point -- you do not want your QB taking too many hits.  Supposedly they were working with him on getting out of bounds better and sliding better, etc.

The new Baltimore offense hinting at less scrambling and more emphasis on throwing but doesn't mean he won't take off and run if the opportunity presents itself. Offensive line performance and  health will be key if they're planning to pass more. Can't wait to see how Monken's offense will turn out. Ravens have the personnel to be a top offense. Just need to improve in the RedZone, so many times Ravens stalled and had to settle for 3 or take chances and miss on 4th and goal 

YES  

Dont do it

DeAndre Hopkins released... 

BAL is also +2000 to win the Super Bowl at Heritage, so Young1 got a fair price.

Appreciate the compliment 22 and the detailed write-up on LJ. Just like his 2019 MVP year is brought in his support, that's the same year they went to Buffalo in division round and the Ravens D held the Bills to 10 pts offensively and still lost.

So my 4 are Mahomes & Burrow, clearly better as you stated, Josh Allen has to be above him as well. Now we have Jimmy G, Rogers in addition to Hebert in the AFC, at least Rogers had 2 MVP years since LJ, off year last year and maybe he's done but he's clearly better than LJ. Jimmy G. is the most maligned qb i've every witnessed in 50 years of watching the NFL. Let me ask you this, if we're basing this on records as a starter and playoff success, how is Jimmy G. not more valuable than LJ? His rap is he's injury prone, this past year he carried 2 guys before breaking his foot. Play was clearly, a protection breakdown, 2 guys were on him immediately, one fell right on his ankle just like we've seen a lot of lately. No question he has to play a full season to lose the tag.

LJ showed no heart not playing in the playoff game last year while Mahomes wins a SB on one leg. There's no comparison between those to. Unless the Ravens resurrect the 2000 defense they aren't going to beat him. My opinion is that LJ has hit his ceiling. This is his 6th year coming up, if he doesn't succeed they'll make excuses for him that this is his first year in a new system. Until he shows me a deep playoff run he's Mr. October (I dubbed P Manning that when it took him 6 years to win a playoff game). 

Can't wait to get the NFL season going and great discussions with my Covers brothers.

@Killer_B

 Thanks for the reply. Yes, Mahomes and Burrow are better.

Rodgers will be on a good team.  But he is big game choker and I have written on this before.  LJ has a better record than him. He also has a better record against teams over .500 than Rodgers.  Rodgers is the most physically talented QB I have ever seen.  I am not a huge fan but want him to get another SB to secure his legacy because it is not all his fault he doesn't have 1-3 more.

Jimmy G is vastly underrated as a winner, as is LJ.  BUT Jimmy G does have an injury-prone issue for sure.  I am still flipping a coin on how I feel about him with us now.  But I like his intangibles a lot.

I like Allen but think folks have him overrated.  Until he starts to beat winning teams like Mahomes or Burrow or LJ, I cannot put him in that tier.  I think he is the sort that needs a lot of talent around him.  He still has not developed a lot of his game, like LJ has not.  But LJ has proven to be able to beat winning teams consistently; Allen has not.

Same with Herbert.  I keep telling my Charger friends to get money on him to be MVP early each season, because he has the talent to be elite -- mentally and physically.  But he has to be able to show me he can win the games he SHOULD win and then beat winning teams, as well.

I cannot say he has no heart.  He explained why he did not play and said he truly felt he would be too hobbled and would hurt the team more than help them.  I THOUGHT he could have played, or at least I WANTED him to play -- because I think they win that game if he does.  But I will defer to a player that is competitive knowing their body.  

But I will say, without a commitment from the Ravens on his future, he may have thought it best not to really get hurt more before he could get a contract -- with them or elsewhere.  Not saying he did or that it would have been right -- but I could understand that viewpoint.  I say it certainly proved the Ravens NEED him more than he NEEDS them.

All injuries are not equal and Mahomes is much better at reading defenses than LJ.  So, without a threat to run, LJ would have been more limited than Mahomes was.

LJ needs improvement on reading defenses -- I have been saying that.  When teams decide they are going to cover the outside and force you to throw across the middle or change the looks up on you -- you have to be able to adjust!  I put a LOT of that on coaching.  LJ may not be the brightest QB but he has shown he can be taught.

I give him a lot of credit for overcoming being underrated his whole life -- even in college and whether or not he could even make it in the pros at QB.  To me that shows heart.

I think I would make him an underdog to only Mahomes and Burrow right now for those reasons.  I like Jimmy G and hope he is healthy all year and want Rodgers to do well.  I love Herbert and think Allen can improve.  

I agree that this should be an exciting year and cannot wait!

lol same nonsense about jackson yet no one still after all this time can answer the simplest of questions. how do you lead the nfl in td passes if you can't throw or read defenses? what does that say about the qbs you deem better? how are other qbs besides mahomes better than jackson when they haven't won the individual qb awards nor has nearly as good a win/loss record as him all while being on much more talented teams on both sides of the ball. this deals with a classical human behavior such as a coping mechanism where a person doesn't like the reality he sees and therefore decides to live out a different one more to his liking in his mind. 

Pittsburgh is winning the AFC North this year. Mark it down. 

                       COM%       TD%       INT%        Y/A         RTG        QBR

2018.   QB1        58           3.5          1.8           7.1          84          42

           QB2        64           6.2          3.3           7.2          93          33

2019.   QB1        66            9           1.5           7.8          113         83

           QB2        70           7.7          2.1           9.6         118         64

2020.   QB1        64           6.9         2.4            7.3          99          67     

           QB2        66           6.9         1.5            7.9         107         73

2021.   QB1        64           4.2         3.4            7.5          87          51

           QB2        67           4            2.6            7             90          56

2022.   QB1        62           5.2         2.1            6.9          91          59

           QB2        65           4            1.8            7.8          95          49

QB1 Record: 45-16

QB2 Record: 41-25

Playoffs

                       COM%       TD%       INT%        Y/A         RTG 

2018   QB1         48           6.9           3.4           6.7         79

2019   QB1         52           1.7           3.4           6.2         63

          QB2         60           8.3           1.7           6.2         99

2020   QB1        65             0             4.2           7.1         68

          QB2        69            3.8            3.8          6.3          83

2021   QB2        63            4.2           12.5         9.2          67

QB1 Record: 1-3

QB2 Record: 2-3

@jtoler

 Let me ask you this:  if you simply look at those numbers I posted above, are you really looking to pay QB1 (obviously LJ) that much more than QB2?

Even in the MVP year QB2 had remarkably similar numbers passing.

I am not AGAINST LJ.  I am one that has been saying the Ravens had to pay him IF they wanted to win.

But if he is going to be under a new OC and the system is going to be new and supposedly going to try to cut back on LJ's running, is that good?

You will be taking away a huge part of what makes him who he is.

Now you will have LJ as more and more of just a passer.  I say he needs MORE coaching to work on his passing game.

Just because he had one, maybe, outlier year does not mean he has been winning all sorts of QB awards.  Someone like Rodgers has won lots of awards -- so his passing numbers would reflect a pure passer.  LJ has won one award and seemingly NOT developed as a passer AND may have tailed off some.

I am NOT saying this is my view; just presenting some of why people did not want the Ravens to pay him -- putting potential injuries aside. 

But if he is going to be under a new OC and the system is going to be new and supposedly going to try to cut back on LJ's running, is that good?

You will be taking away a huge part of what makes him who he is.

Now you will have LJ as more and more of just a passer.  I say he needs MORE coaching to work on his passing game. Again the notion that jack can't pass has been burned into people's psyche to the point that leading the league in passing tds hasn't been enough to erase it(although thats a stat most of his detractors don't even realize). he doesn't need anymore teaching or coaching  in passing than any other young qb, again you don't lead the lead in tds if youre not good in that department it just can't happen in this league and not only did he throw for 36 tds that year he only threw 6 picks. you can't just luck up and do that under no circumstances. you say it was an outlier year but the next year was 26 and 9 not too shabby for a "running  qb" and the last two years he was in early mvp talks before tailing off and ultimate injuries. I think he's shown enough to say a healthy jack is amongst the top qbs in the game.

I left out the much weaker division tannehill is in with the likes of jaguars, colts, and texans while ravens are alongside steelers, bengals, and browns.

@jtoler

 No sir.  He plays 1 position but has an additional skill at it.  But the new OC and head coach and even LJ say they are going to cut back on.  Now you are going to play TO his weakness, which is drop-back reading and passing first.  If they are not careful he will start to force passes knowing he is expected to pass.  I hope not.  But we will see.

Yes.  I picked a guy with a similar record and same situation win the playoffs.  That team also decided that he gave them the best chance to win in the playoffs at that time.  He is not better or worse stats-wise and could have won the MVP year that LJ did if he had played the full year.  

But it is more fair than comparing him to Mahomes or Rodgers that flat-out are better at all passing stats.  

He is not an elite passer under pressure and in pressure situations.  He HAS to be able to use his running skills.  BUT what ELSE is burned into everyone's psyche is that he is injury prone and gets hurt while running.  BOTH of those are wrong as I have pointed out.  BUT now they are being pressured to change LJ's game up because of something that is not entirely true.

This is likely to backfire.

My point is IF they always knew they were going to do this then and argument could have been made to NOT pay him.  BUT if not then they SHOULD pay him because then he gives them the best chance to win.

He needs a LOT more help than Herbert or Mahomes or Burrow does on passing AND reading defenses.  They are all young QBs and WAY better pure passers that read defenses better than LJ does.  I whole-heartedly believe he needs classroom work and a dedicated QB coach.

For example, if he were in KC I think he gets that help and development from Reid.  

Again, I think he is a proven winner AND they should pay him.  But they better be careful changing his playing style.

Balty running game dependent of course with some help from O-line will be just fine with a fully recovered JK Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill should be just fine, throw in undrafted rookie Keaton Mitchell out of E.Car.We are expecting a healthy Bateman this year and the addition of 1st round pick Zay Flowers pick up of OBJ coupled with Mark Andrews and hopefully Will Likely Ravens have some receivers for new OC who is much less run oriented than Greg Roman.The writing is on the wall,you can bet your boots there will be far fewer designated LJ run plays called.