Rams@Bears play, and discussion

Bears +3.5(-105) *1.05/1.00

Full disclosure, just one unit as of now. I might buy out, could go for a middle if the opportunity presents itself, or I could add to the Bears. I have no clue at this point.

By all metrics and power ratings, this is a fair line. I got it around -3.23. 

How do you gage the Bears magic at this point? We know that these dramatic wins aren't sustainable, but when does it end? They keep defying all odds and coming out on top. Is there some sort of # we can adhere to a team with this kind of mojo? Spirits are way up, camaraderie is up, coaches are out coaching the opposing coaches etc...

I don't know how to gage and apply it to a stupid Vegas #. All we can do is talk about the situations, trends, matchups and such.

Matthew Stafford:

First and foremost, the injured finger is ok as of now.

https://nypost.com/2026/01/11/sports/rams-get-encouraging-matthew-stafford-injury-update/

How it's going to feel on a cold and windy Chicago night is another discussion. 

https://theramswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/rams/2026/01/12/rams-bears-weather-wind-bitterly-cold-weather-for-playoff-game/88140536007/

Since we're talking about outdoor games in the elements, Stafford doesn't have the best track record. As all of his home games have been played in a dome.

Matthew Stafford's career record in outdoor games is 36 wins and 43 losses. In the month of January he is 3-4.

As a Ram, he is 14-10 outdoors. 

He has a notably poor record in cold-weather games involving rain or snow, standing at 1 win and 9 losses.

Big shout out to Boisestateand8 for posting a thread pertaining to the Texans/Steelers game tonight. Looking at the trend, it will apply to the Rams/Bears. Thank you sir.

https://www.covers.com/forum/nfl-betting-21/important-info-for-the-monday-night-game-104007491

The Bears lost 2 starters for the season against the Packers. LB TJ Edwards and LT Ozzy Trapilo. 

The Edwards injury could be a blessing in disguise, as D'Marco Jackson has played his ass off whenever given the opportunity. Most notably vs the Steelers when he recorded 14 tackles in his first start. His PFF grade is 83.9 compared to TJ Edwards 72. He is a Dennis Allen guy, playing in New Orleans. He knows the scheme and has worn the green dot when Tremaine Edmunds was out.

Ozzy Trapilo did a fine job at left Tackle for the Bears. His PFF grade is 70, the lowest of all the Bears starting o linemen. He'll be replaced by Theo Benedet who was originally the starting LT to start the season. His PFF grade is 57.1, so he'll be a downgrade on paper.

*Some interesting tidbits to think about*

-The offensive coordinator for the Rams is Mike LaFleur. Matt's little brother. The Bears went 2-1 vs the Packers and there's a strong hatred between Ben Johnson and Matt LaFleur. Will big brother share notes and give advice to his little bro? I kind of think so.

-What would the playoff picture look like right now if the Eagles played for the 2 seed in week 18? They would of gotten the Packers at home instead of the Niners.

-The bears did not take one offensive snap with the lead in 3 games against the Packers. The Packers had the lead for 182 of the 184 minutes that they played.

That's all for now, add any thoughts and stats as the week goes on.

I could of had +4.5(-110) when the line opened last night. Not sure why I didn't grab it. I was pretty spent handicapping and watching all 3 games.

I knew which way the line was going to go.

I'm sure it will bounce around some through the week

It's okay Sac you might get a really good number in-game. Bears 2H seems like an auto play at this point 

I know you’re a local bears fan and I know that wouldn’t influence your wager in the least. I can see Chicago defense causing a few miscues by Stafford which will lead to some good field position and some points.

Ordinarily I’d bring up the fact that on the flipside, I don’t see how Chicago corners cover all of the weapons the Rams have at their disposal.Well now, it’s not so much the 32 degree temperature I worry about, it’s the 20 to 30 mph wind gusts projected at game time. 

i’m biased because of my NFL and Super Bowl futures with the Rams. Glad your city finally got the chance to celebrate as I’m only 90 miles north. Still the best rivalry in football.

Tough game, but I could see a Rams SU win by 3. Then again, Bears are #2 seed & a Home Dog again, so maybe they can win SU, & like mentioned, the indoor dome team Rams on the road in very cold weather, was looking at extended forecast, high of 18 degrees, low of 9, both Saturday & Sunday.

Good luck with the play Sac.....I might buy points Bears up to +10.5 in a parlay yet to be determined.

@undermysac

 Yes it's supposed to be  "Bear weather" early look at the weather here for sunday shows high in the teens and lows in the single digits. Wind chills could feel below zero and chance of a little snow. Kind of like it was in January 1986 nfc title game bears shutout the rams 24-0 on their way to winning the super bowl against new england.

Great pull.

If anyone is a believer in history repeating itself, Pats n Bears super bowl anyone?

@undermysac

 Weather forecast 17 degrees fyi

this should be an easy rams victory against that Bears D. Rams will put up a lot of points. Caleb will make mistakes and not be able to keep up as a  die hard SC fan I watched him fall apart at the worst times forcing passes. Same will happen this weekend. Rams -3 1/2 is a gift. 

I watched him at usc too.

He's kind of had 2 full nfl seasons and 1 play off game since then.

The rams showed their weakness on defense this weekend.  They could easily fold in the 4th quarter like the packers did (I wouldn't count on that though).

Here's a nice scheduling quirk that favors the Bears.

It will be the Rams 4th road game in 5 weeks. Take em back to week 13, 6th road game in 8 weeks, where there were 3 trips to the east coast.

It will be the Bears 5th home game in 6 weeks.

None of the players will enjoy playing in that weather. Unless the Rams defense flips a switch, they have allowed teams to put up points willy nilly on the road. I'm liking Da Bears chances.

Good Luck @undermysac

you were right.. Special teams is VERY important in the playoffs.. look at how much it came into play with the results in the wild card round..        

Kudos.. 

I think the Rams win this game - their have a solid front on defense and too many weapons and too much experience for the Bears.

@undermysac

 On with you with the Bears +3.5 but if the opportunity presents itself with Bears being down by double digits again then I will no doubt hammer it live for the ML. For some reason, Bears juju is just on point this season.

Not only is their defensive front good, but so is their o line.

This does scare the shit out of me, cause if they control the line of scrimmage all day long, it's gonna be a long day.

Too bad that the Jaguars kicker failed us, Cam Little missing a 54 yarder which is not a hard field goal for him normally. 

Then ofcourse Liam Coen got cute, fucked around and found out how important 3 points can be in a nfl playoff game. Going for it on 4th down from the 9...

You win some, you lose some 

@GElmokia

I think the Rams win this game - their have a solid front on defense and too many weapons and too much experience for the Bears.

Yep, a lot of people had and felt the same kind of thought before the past bears game and made s foolish mistake and bet against them due to the same reasoning with inexpierance inclinations and then what became of the outcome? .....a Chicago victory.

This team is special, very special and the addition of several key pieces including and not limited to their coach Ben Johnson made them exceptionally competitive to whomever they play ....tread carefully 

Greenbay 2 missed field goals     Lost 27-31

Jacksonville 1 missed field goal   Lost 27-24

Eagles missed extra point in field goal range 

lost 23-19

Ben Johnson was TE coach for the fins and lions, before he became lions OC, and then bears HC.   He selected TE Colston Loveland with their 1st pick in the 2025 draft.   He has emerged as one of their primary threats.   With Saturday’s win over the packers Loveland became the first rookie tight end since the merger to post 90-plus receiving yards in three consecutive games.

Loveland 60+ receiving yds +110 @DK

Good luck Sac.  

@undermysac

 Sac, be honest without emotion. How much of this play is homer subconsciously?