Posted:
#26
@vanzack
Ur correct i just want the winner for today 
but thanks for the long-winded answer nonetheless 
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Rams / Cardinals - Monday Night Wild Party....
Posted:
#27
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by Supersharpone: @vanzack I am planning 10 units on this game. Are you as confident on the ML as the spread? Even though you mentioned ML in your writeup not sure if thats also your official play. In order to really be a "super sharp one"... You should know the difference between winning TODAY on ONE GAME vs winning more than you lose in your next 1,000 games. I am not here to give a winner today. I am here - and have been here - to give winners LONG TERM. So you ask "am I as confident in the spread as the ML"? How could I possibly be as confident in taking +3.5 vs not taking +3.5? I am more confident that the +3.5 wins TODAY than the ML, but.... The line is always the SPREAD + THE PRICE. People get hung up on just the spread, but the price is equally and inextricably important. The ML is just a different spread with a different price. Assuming your spread at 3.5 -105 is a 20 cent line, and the ML at +160 is also a 20 cent line - then there is no real difference LONG TERM if you bet the spread today or the ML. But SHORT TERM there is. You have more of a chance of winning this one bet taking +3.5 than the ML. I know this probably doesnt answer your question because 99% of covers only wants todays winner - they dont think about long term - they want a winner and they want it now. But I play long term. And when you play long term - you begin to realize that winning a bet today is secondary to winning money over the course of a longer period of time.
Quote Originally Posted by Supersharpone: @vanzack I am planning 10 units on this game. Are you as confident on the ML as the spread? Even though you mentioned ML in your writeup not sure if thats also your official play. In order to really be a "super sharp one"... You should know the difference between winning TODAY on ONE GAME vs winning more than you lose in your next 1,000 games. I am not here to give a winner today. I am here - and have been here - to give winners LONG TERM. So you ask "am I as confident in the spread as the ML"? How could I possibly be as confident in taking +3.5 vs not taking +3.5? I am more confident that the +3.5 wins TODAY than the ML, but.... The line is always the SPREAD + THE PRICE. People get hung up on just the spread, but the price is equally and inextricably important. The ML is just a different spread with a different price. Assuming your spread at 3.5 -105 is a 20 cent line, and the ML at +160 is also a 20 cent line - then there is no real difference LONG TERM if you bet the spread today or the ML. But SHORT TERM there is. You have more of a chance of winning this one bet taking +3.5 than the ML. I know this probably doesnt answer your question because 99% of covers only wants todays winner - they dont think about long term - they want a winner and they want it now. But I play long term. And when you play long term - you begin to realize that winning a bet today is secondary to winning money over the course of a longer period of time.
Respectfully disagree. 99% of the clowns on covers that post comments want winners NOW. You have many more followers that lurk and don't post. These lurkers have money management skills. Win or lose. Thanks for what you do. 
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Posted:
#29
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by psu12015: Looking forward to your Niners/Packers write up. I see the line at 5.5. I will have it up by Wed. Hopeful for the return of the defensive injuries to Bosa and Warner. I do like the 49ers, just a question of how much. GL
Quote Originally Posted by psu12015: Looking forward to your Niners/Packers write up. I see the line at 5.5. I will have it up by Wed. Hopeful for the return of the defensive injuries to Bosa and Warner. I do like the 49ers, just a question of how much. GL
If Bosa comes back from that I would be surprised...That was vicious...
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Posted:
#30
You would have to think taking the dog tonight would be a safer pick, especially with the history of dogs covering on wildcard weekends. But this super wildcard weekend has turned that upside down with favs destroying the dogs. (except for the 49ers beating my Boys) But it was the most exciting game so far. Look for an exciting game tonight as well, which would tend to make me want to take the point also. But just my thought, makes me want to go opposite of what I feel safe with and take the Rams minus the points. Good luck with your wagers
0
Posted:
#33
Quote Originally Posted by Unclebenelli:
Great Thread. Thanks Van I am on AZ for these and a couple other spots, may do a write up, may Just say, see Vanzack's post.
Great Thread. Thanks Van I am on AZ for these and a couple other spots, may do a write up, may Just say, see Vanzack's post.
Everybody's favorite Uncle making an appearance!
Glad to hear we are on the same side.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Posted:
#35
Quote Originally Posted by Gregga55:
You would have to think taking the dog tonight would be a safer pick, especially with the history of dogs covering on wildcard weekends. But this super wildcard weekend has turned that upside down with favs destroying the dogs. (except for the 49ers beating my Boys) But it was the most exciting game so far. Look for an exciting game tonight as well, which would tend to make me want to take the point also. But just my thought, makes me want to go opposite of what I feel safe with and take the Rams minus the points. Good luck with your wagers
You would have to think taking the dog tonight would be a safer pick, especially with the history of dogs covering on wildcard weekends. But this super wildcard weekend has turned that upside down with favs destroying the dogs. (except for the 49ers beating my Boys) But it was the most exciting game so far. Look for an exciting game tonight as well, which would tend to make me want to take the point also. But just my thought, makes me want to go opposite of what I feel safe with and take the Rams minus the points. Good luck with your wagers
This post is a roller coaster. Reverse reverse reverse psychology!
Good luck tonight - whatever you decide.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Posted:
#38
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by Gregga55: You would have to think taking the dog tonight would be a safer pick, especially with the history of dogs covering on wildcard weekends. But this super wildcard weekend has turned that upside down with favs destroying the dogs. (except for the 49ers beating my Boys) But it was the most exciting game so far. Look for an exciting game tonight as well, which would tend to make me want to take the point also. But just my thought, makes me want to go opposite of what I feel safe with and take the Rams minus the points. Good luck with your wagers This post is a roller coaster. Reverse reverse reverse psychology! Good luck tonight - whatever you decide.
Quote Originally Posted by Gregga55: You would have to think taking the dog tonight would be a safer pick, especially with the history of dogs covering on wildcard weekends. But this super wildcard weekend has turned that upside down with favs destroying the dogs. (except for the 49ers beating my Boys) But it was the most exciting game so far. Look for an exciting game tonight as well, which would tend to make me want to take the point also. But just my thought, makes me want to go opposite of what I feel safe with and take the Rams minus the points. Good luck with your wagers This post is a roller coaster. Reverse reverse reverse psychology! Good luck tonight - whatever you decide.
I'm reading the tea leaves now. Like in a game of Uno, if the reverse card comes up 3 times, the opposite of what was started becomes the standard. So you're saying the Rams are the play are you? Of course you are.
Everybody, it's a reverse curse. Don't fall for the Cardinals head fake. Vanzack is really on the Rams!
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Posted:
#41
Quote Originally Posted by BigPapa21:
Quote Originally Posted by Supersharpone: Well, maybe ur right. well said
Quote Originally Posted by Supersharpone: Well, maybe ur right. well said
Some great points were made. Must ponder them until game time.
I have the Rams because I did 2 crazy parlays i didnt think would still be alive at this point but they are. I'm thinking of possibly hedging, BUT I think maybe Staff finally gets a playoff win. QBs on the road making 1st playoff start so far 0-3 this round and not a good spot overall.
Cards have gone in the tank since Nuke got hurt. They lead the league in fumbles.
Having said that, I have lost almost every Cards bet for or against I made this season. Could not get them right. Even in week 1, had the Over when they played Titans.
Only needed 1 point in the 4th quarter to hit and neither team scored the entire 4th quarter when does that happen.
I like the Over in this game. 2 young aggressive coaches, pass oriented offense. 2 safeties out for the Rams. 2 good long range kickers. 1st MNF wild card. Could be a barn burner.
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Posted:
#46
@Getty3
Pretty sure Vanzak is definitely on the Cards, and while I respect his handicapping skills, its one of those games where most of the people I gamble with want the Cards. I don't really like betting the favorite tonight after all but one fav covered so far this weekend. But I am betting the Rams to win and cover. Just a gut feeling. So a small play for me.
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