NFL Season: +27.49 units NFL Playoffs: 4-1 +9.45 units
**Cards +3.5 (2 units)
I wrote this on Wed of last week.... And am pretty much sticking with it.
50/50 game with wildly inconsistent teams. Give me the points. Might want to sprinkle some alt spreads at big + juice as I wouldnt be surprised with a blowout - for either team.
Cards / Rams: -3.5 off of -4, this seems like the number it will stay until kickoff
Mirror image teams with one who is 8-1 on the road, and the other 5-3 at home. There is no home field advantage when the Rams play - their players were caught on open mics wondering why there were so many SF fans there last week. Rams secondary is banged up and the Cards should be able to take advantage - but to be fair the Cards offense is either on or off - very rarely in between so who knows. Both of these teams are schitzophrenic, hard to predict - and very similar. Give me points and ML in what should be not necessarily a close game - but a 50/50 winner.
GL all
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
1
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
NFL Season: +27.49 units NFL Playoffs: 4-1 +9.45 units
**Cards +3.5 (2 units)
I wrote this on Wed of last week.... And am pretty much sticking with it.
50/50 game with wildly inconsistent teams. Give me the points. Might want to sprinkle some alt spreads at big + juice as I wouldnt be surprised with a blowout - for either team.
Cards / Rams: -3.5 off of -4, this seems like the number it will stay until kickoff
Mirror image teams with one who is 8-1 on the road, and the other 5-3 at home. There is no home field advantage when the Rams play - their players were caught on open mics wondering why there were so many SF fans there last week. Rams secondary is banged up and the Cards should be able to take advantage - but to be fair the Cards offense is either on or off - very rarely in between so who knows. Both of these teams are schitzophrenic, hard to predict - and very similar. Give me points and ML in what should be not necessarily a close game - but a 50/50 winner.
I am planning 10 units on this game. Are you as confident on the ML as the spread? Even though you mentioned ML in your writeup not sure if thats also your official play.
0
@vanzack
I am planning 10 units on this game. Are you as confident on the ML as the spread? Even though you mentioned ML in your writeup not sure if thats also your official play.
@vanzack I am planning 10 units on this game. Are you as confident on the ML as the spread? Even though you mentioned ML in your writeup not sure if thats also your official play.
In order to really be a "super sharp one"... You should know the difference between winning TODAY on ONE GAME vs winning more than you lose in your next 1,000 games.
I am not here to give a winner today. I am here - and have been here - to give winners LONG TERM.
So you ask "am I as confident in the spread as the ML"? How could I possibly be as confident in taking +3.5 vs not taking +3.5? I am more confident that the +3.5 wins TODAY than the ML, but....
The line is always the SPREAD + THE PRICE. People get hung up on just the spread, but the price is equally and inextricably important. The ML is just a different spread with a different price.
Assuming your spread at 3.5 -105 is a 20 cent line, and the ML at +160 is also a 20 cent line - then there is no real difference LONG TERM if you bet the spread today or the ML. But SHORT TERM there is. You have more of a chance of winning this one bet taking +3.5 than the ML.
I know this probably doesnt answer your question because 99% of covers only wants todays winner - they dont think about long term - they want a winner and they want it now. But I play long term. And when you play long term - you begin to realize that winning a bet today is secondary to winning money over the course of a longer period of time.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
5
Quote Originally Posted by Supersharpone:
@vanzack I am planning 10 units on this game. Are you as confident on the ML as the spread? Even though you mentioned ML in your writeup not sure if thats also your official play.
In order to really be a "super sharp one"... You should know the difference between winning TODAY on ONE GAME vs winning more than you lose in your next 1,000 games.
I am not here to give a winner today. I am here - and have been here - to give winners LONG TERM.
So you ask "am I as confident in the spread as the ML"? How could I possibly be as confident in taking +3.5 vs not taking +3.5? I am more confident that the +3.5 wins TODAY than the ML, but....
The line is always the SPREAD + THE PRICE. People get hung up on just the spread, but the price is equally and inextricably important. The ML is just a different spread with a different price.
Assuming your spread at 3.5 -105 is a 20 cent line, and the ML at +160 is also a 20 cent line - then there is no real difference LONG TERM if you bet the spread today or the ML. But SHORT TERM there is. You have more of a chance of winning this one bet taking +3.5 than the ML.
I know this probably doesnt answer your question because 99% of covers only wants todays winner - they dont think about long term - they want a winner and they want it now. But I play long term. And when you play long term - you begin to realize that winning a bet today is secondary to winning money over the course of a longer period of time.
We could get into that argument that the spread only matters 17% of the time in the nfl...where the dog losses but covers.
It is in fact harder to pick the su winner than most think. When we get so hung up on a spread that always costs -110(give or take), in the long run it's not as profitable to be always paying tax.
If you like the fav, lay the spread, if you like the dog lay the ML. But this is a hard method to stick to. I myself am saying it and still don't adhere to it all the time.
2
We could get into that argument that the spread only matters 17% of the time in the nfl...where the dog losses but covers.
It is in fact harder to pick the su winner than most think. When we get so hung up on a spread that always costs -110(give or take), in the long run it's not as profitable to be always paying tax.
If you like the fav, lay the spread, if you like the dog lay the ML. But this is a hard method to stick to. I myself am saying it and still don't adhere to it all the time.
Hot Forum Topics
