"Playoffs???!!!" Tech angles

Good day....it's that time again.  We'll see how it goes....we'll make some SDQL queries based on a few years of data....follow or fade, 90% of bettors are going with their gut, which is fine by me.

We've mentioned it in the past....historically Saturday games have favored home teams and Sunday games have favored road teams....."why?".....I don't know....I'm sure someone here will think they have the answer.

1)  Home teams Saturday playoffs first round....27-18-2 ATS, 26-25 straight up.

     Home teams Sunday.....17-33-1 ATS, 29-18 straight up.

playoffs=1 and p:playoffs=0 and H and day and op:playoffs=0 (gimmethedog.com)

2)  Home dogs playoffs first round that won less than 8 games last season.

  a)  on Saturday.....6-1 ATS (9.57), 5-2 straight up (5.0)......Bears, Panthers

  b)  on Sunday......3-6 ATS (-1.78), 2-7 straight up (-5.44)  VERSUS Jaguars

4)  Home favorites first round that won less than 8 games the previous season....8-24 ATS, 3-11 ATS on Sunday (-6.79)....VERSUS Patriots

5)  Home dogs that won less games last season than their present opponent won last season...first round of playoffs...

  a)  on Saturday....4-1-1 ATS (+8.67).....Bears, Panthers

  b)  on Sunday....2-5-1 ATS (-4.75), 1-7 straight up (-8.75)

6)  Home favorites that won less games last season than their present opponent won last season....3-14 ATS overall...1-8 ATS on Sunday games (-10.39)....VERSUS Patriots

7)  Teams that missed the playoffs the season prior.....

  a)  Home teams....12-30-1 ATS (-4.48).....VERSUS Bears, Jaguars, Panthers, Patriots

  b)  Away teams....43-41-1 ATS....49ers

8)  Away teams on Sunday that have won more than 3 out of their last six games....28-14-1 ATS (+3.6), 22-21 straight up (0.7).....Bills, 49ers, Chargers

9)  Away teams on Saturday that have won 3 or less games out of their past six....8-12-1 ATS....VERSUS Packers, Rams.

Plays:

1)  Panthers +10'

2)  Bills pik

3)  Chargers +3'

10)  First round away teams on Sunday when the total is less than 47....28-10 ATS (+4.6), 21-18 straight up (+1.8)....49ers, Chargers

welcome back.

do you see any value in this query?

season>=2023 and PO=1 and surface=grass and week=19

(0-12) Under the total by 8.2 pts

We've agreed to disagree before....I don't like queries with two years of data....if it works for you, go for it,...make a million....

BOL  Indigo

11)  Playoffs first round, team with the better average ats margin/game.....

  a)  home on Saturday....10-6-1 ATS (+5.21)....ON Bears

  b)  home on Sunday ...10-23 ATS (-5.56), 16-17 straight up (+0.03)....VERSUS Patriots, Jags

  c)  away on Saturday...12-16-1 ATS (-0.59), 12-17 straight up (-2.97)....VERSUS Rams

  d)  away on Sunday....18-9-1 ATS (+1.6), 14-14 straight up (+0.4) ON 49ers 

The recent 2 years of data is often more significant than 20 years because the trend involves current players and coaches, the longer the history the more irrelevant it becomes.

The key to succeeding with SDQL is to identify the trends early and ride them as long as you can before they fail.

@Indigo999

You asked my opinion and I gave it...I don't agree with your premise.

That would be team specific trends. These are not team specific.

They are spot specific. 

Meaning over time certain spots have done well, has nothing to do with players or coaches.

Different players and coaches can not beat the spot. Longer periods are more accurate based on sample size.

Do you make wagers based solely on these tech angles? It seems odd that you don't factor in any coaching data, QB info, special teams info, etc.

Your perception of reality is different than mine, as it is with everyone else in existence.

"The problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are so sure of themselves, with wiser men  so full of doubt."

Fuckin love it

12)  Home teams that won 5 or 6 out of their last six home games, first round of the playoffs....

  a)  Saturday home teams.....11-9-1 (+1.0), 13-8 straight up (5.9).....Bears

  b)  Sunday home teams.......8-17 (-5.98), 13-12 straight up (-0.52)....VERSUS Jaguars, Patriots

"Cherish those that seek the truth, but beware of those who find it."..........Voltaire

I am with you on the LAC.

Good luck and welcome back.

I am not here to argue what I think is relevant and what isn't.....if you resonate with I put out, use it if you think if it is advantageous......if you don't, disregard or fade.

"Reality can be beaten with enough imagination.".......Mark Twain

13)   First round Sunday home playoff teams that have missed the playoffs the past two seasons....3-17 ATS (-7.4), 6-14 straight up (-5.5)....VERSUS Patriots, Jaguars

playoffs=1 and p:playoffs=0 and op:playoffs=0 and tpS(playoffs)=0 and tppS(playoffs)=0 and H and day=Sunday (gimmethedog)

Thanks a lot, Indigo, for posting all of this information. 

Am gonna tell you the problem with all this sdql stuff is that you can create so many queries where you endup having both sides in a game picked, so you really end up back at square 1 trying to figure out which query to use.

Hey if it works for some of you, congrats.  Just know that every query that picks one side, somebody else made a query that picks the other side.

Bust thou bookies folks

Thanks for keeping me informed......

There is no argument, simply trying to understand your logic, because given the scenario I presented I'm hitting the 12-0 trend 100% of the time until it fails.

Again, uncovering early and riding the wave until it fails is where the big money is made.

As I've said, I am not debating with you on  your logic, and you are also not convincing me that I would consider playing this myself......let it go.

In actuality your angle is 6-0 as you are counting both the home and road team in the same game.

14)  A team that has an average covering margin of at least 3 points/game season-to-date.

  a)  Home teams on Sunday....7-16 ATS (-4.48), 10-13 straight up (+0.52)...VERSUS Jags, Pats

  b)  Road teams on Saturday...8-7-2 ATS (+1.97), 10-7 (+0.94)....Rams