110-81 ATS on the season.....as I mentioned in last week's thread, there has been no home field advantage for round one of the playoffs, however in the past the top two teams had a bye and as of last year only the first seed has one.
a) Home divisional favorites in the playoffs that beat their present opponent the last time they played have been 1-6 ATS in the first round.....VERSUS Bills, 49ers, Bengals
b) Home divisional favorites in the playoffs that beat their present opponent twice during the regular season....1-5 ATS in the first two rounds and 1-3 in round one......VERSUS 49ers
c) Round one home playoff teams that won less than 9 games their previous season have gone 6-22-1 ATS, 8-21 straight up....VERSUS Vikings, Jaguars
d) Round one Saturday away dogs have been 15-14 ATS (12-12-2 if they missed the playoffs last season) and 18-10 ATS on Sunday, 12-7 ATS if they missed the playoffs last season....ON Ravens, Giants and Dolphins
e) Round one away dogs that won their last game.......24-12 ATS...ON Seahawks, Dolphins
110-81 ATS on the season.....as I mentioned in last week's thread, there has been no home field advantage for round one of the playoffs, however in the past the top two teams had a bye and as of last year only the first seed has one.
a) Home divisional favorites in the playoffs that beat their present opponent the last time they played have been 1-6 ATS in the first round.....VERSUS Bills, 49ers, Bengals
b) Home divisional favorites in the playoffs that beat their present opponent twice during the regular season....1-5 ATS in the first two rounds and 1-3 in round one......VERSUS 49ers
c) Round one home playoff teams that won less than 9 games their previous season have gone 6-22-1 ATS, 8-21 straight up....VERSUS Vikings, Jaguars
d) Round one Saturday away dogs have been 15-14 ATS (12-12-2 if they missed the playoffs last season) and 18-10 ATS on Sunday, 12-7 ATS if they missed the playoffs last season....ON Ravens, Giants and Dolphins
e) Round one away dogs that won their last game.......24-12 ATS...ON Seahawks, Dolphins
110-81 ATS on the season.....as I mentioned in last week's thread, there has been no home field advantage for round one of the playoffs, however in the past the top two teams had a bye and as of last year only the first seed has one. a) Home divisional favorites in the playoffs that beat their present opponent the last time they played have been 1-6 ATS in the first round.....VERSUS Bills, 49ers, Bengals b) Home divisional favorites in the playoffs that beat their present opponent twice during the regular season....1-5 ATS in the first two rounds and 1-3 in round one......VERSUS 49ers c) Round one home playoff teams that won less than 9 games their previous season have gone 6-22-1 ATS, 8-21 straight up....VERSUS Vikings, Jaguars d) Round one Saturday away dogs have been 15-14 ATS (12-12-2 if they missed the playoffs last season) and 18-10 ATS on Sunday, 12-7 ATS if they missed the playoffs last season....ON Ravens, Giants and Dolphins e) Round one away dogs that won their last game.......24-12 ATS...ON Seahawks, Dolphins
THX indigo, if you don't mind how do you query (c)?
110-81 ATS on the season.....as I mentioned in last week's thread, there has been no home field advantage for round one of the playoffs, however in the past the top two teams had a bye and as of last year only the first seed has one. a) Home divisional favorites in the playoffs that beat their present opponent the last time they played have been 1-6 ATS in the first round.....VERSUS Bills, 49ers, Bengals b) Home divisional favorites in the playoffs that beat their present opponent twice during the regular season....1-5 ATS in the first two rounds and 1-3 in round one......VERSUS 49ers c) Round one home playoff teams that won less than 9 games their previous season have gone 6-22-1 ATS, 8-21 straight up....VERSUS Vikings, Jaguars d) Round one Saturday away dogs have been 15-14 ATS (12-12-2 if they missed the playoffs last season) and 18-10 ATS on Sunday, 12-7 ATS if they missed the playoffs last season....ON Ravens, Giants and Dolphins e) Round one away dogs that won their last game.......24-12 ATS...ON Seahawks, Dolphins
THX indigo, if you don't mind how do you query (c)?
Wow. Hard to fathom fading the 49ers.. I could see Dolphins maybe covering can they cover 3 in a row vs Bills? Liking Giants to keep it close and Ravens I will bet it without a doubt. Interesting queries keep it up Indi
Wow. Hard to fathom fading the 49ers.. I could see Dolphins maybe covering can they cover 3 in a row vs Bills? Liking Giants to keep it close and Ravens I will bet it without a doubt. Interesting queries keep it up Indi
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999: 110-81 ATS on the season.....as I mentioned in last week's thread, there has been no home field advantage for round one of the playoffs, however in the past the top two teams had a bye and as of last year only the first seed has one. a) Home divisional favorites in the playoffs that beat their present opponent the last time they played have been 1-6 ATS in the first round.....VERSUS Bills, 49ers, Bengals b) Home divisional favorites in the playoffs that beat their present opponent twice during the regular season....1-5 ATS in the first two rounds and 1-3 in round one......VERSUS 49ers c) Round one home playoff teams that won less than 9 games their previous season have gone 6-22-1 ATS, 8-21 straight up....VERSUS Vikings, Jaguars d) Round one Saturday away dogs have been 15-14 ATS (12-12-2 if they missed the playoffs last season) and 18-10 ATS on Sunday, 12-7 ATS if they missed the playoffs last season....ON Ravens, Giants and Dolphins e) Round one away dogs that won their last game.......24-12 ATS...ON Seahawks, Dolphins THX indigo, if you don't mind how do you query (c)?
I don't remember exactly what I did, but this is close enough...."PRSW" means previous regular season wins
playoffs=1 and p:playoffs=0 and HF, HD and day and PRSW<9
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999: 110-81 ATS on the season.....as I mentioned in last week's thread, there has been no home field advantage for round one of the playoffs, however in the past the top two teams had a bye and as of last year only the first seed has one. a) Home divisional favorites in the playoffs that beat their present opponent the last time they played have been 1-6 ATS in the first round.....VERSUS Bills, 49ers, Bengals b) Home divisional favorites in the playoffs that beat their present opponent twice during the regular season....1-5 ATS in the first two rounds and 1-3 in round one......VERSUS 49ers c) Round one home playoff teams that won less than 9 games their previous season have gone 6-22-1 ATS, 8-21 straight up....VERSUS Vikings, Jaguars d) Round one Saturday away dogs have been 15-14 ATS (12-12-2 if they missed the playoffs last season) and 18-10 ATS on Sunday, 12-7 ATS if they missed the playoffs last season....ON Ravens, Giants and Dolphins e) Round one away dogs that won their last game.......24-12 ATS...ON Seahawks, Dolphins THX indigo, if you don't mind how do you query (c)?
I don't remember exactly what I did, but this is close enough...."PRSW" means previous regular season wins
playoffs=1 and p:playoffs=0 and HF, HD and day and PRSW<9
Last season and 2001 were the only two seasons that the first round of the playoffs took place on week 19....those home teams went 8-2 ATS those two seasons, winning straight up by an average of 12 points/game.
All other seasons the first round of the playoffs where neither team had a bye those home teams went 32-42 ATS, losing to the pointspread by 1.53 points/game and winning by an average of 1.65 points/game.
H and playoffs = 1 and op:playoffs = 0 and p:playoffs=0 and week
Obviously, I am bucking what happened last season and consider the long-term trend to be more predictive......you'll have to decide yourself what you consider to be most important. After the first round of the playoffs last season, remember that all the playoff games were decided by 3 points.
Last season and 2001 were the only two seasons that the first round of the playoffs took place on week 19....those home teams went 8-2 ATS those two seasons, winning straight up by an average of 12 points/game.
All other seasons the first round of the playoffs where neither team had a bye those home teams went 32-42 ATS, losing to the pointspread by 1.53 points/game and winning by an average of 1.65 points/game.
H and playoffs = 1 and op:playoffs = 0 and p:playoffs=0 and week
Obviously, I am bucking what happened last season and consider the long-term trend to be more predictive......you'll have to decide yourself what you consider to be most important. After the first round of the playoffs last season, remember that all the playoff games were decided by 3 points.
After the game when the 49ers demolished the Cardinals in Mexico City a few weeks back I bet the 49ers at +342 for two units to win the NFC......tt looks smart now as the 49ers have had the top defense AND offense in the entire league since week 8....however we all know that what counts is cashing tickets.
For how great the 49ers looked yesterday, they barely got by the Raiders the week before....that is life in the NFL.....it make me feel uneasy that I am backing has got it rolling going into the playoffs as the axiom, "it's how you're playing now" that the media puts out is bogus....I'd rather they would've put up a stinker in December, rather than in January.
I can remember some really dominant teams during the regular season that got beat in the playoffs......some examples.....
1) Oakland Raiders beat the Redskins in the Super Bowl when the Redskins had put up record points in the regular season....the Redskins got smoked in the Super Bowl when Marcus Allen ran riot all over them.
2) Those same Redskins upset the dominant Dolphins in the strike season when John Riggins ran all over the Dolphins.
3) Peyton Manning's dominant Colts start out 13-0, got beat by Steelers, as the Steelers up 3, fumble (Jerome Bettis) at one yard line in the last minute....the Colts' defensive back picks it up and is running it in for the winning score when Big Ben makes a game saving tackle at midfield....the Colts, much less dominant the next season beat the Bears in the Super Bowl.
4) Unbeaten Patriots get beat by the Giants (who had lost 6 or 7 regular season games) in the Super Bowl.
5) Minnesota Vikings set offensive records for most points scored, get beat in the NFC championship by the Falcons when their kicker who hadn't missed a kick the entire season misses a game tying field goal in the 4th quarter.
6) Dominant Packers and Brett Favre get beat by the Broncos as 10 point favorites in the Super Bowl...the Broncos are dominant the next season and win back to back Super Bowls with Terrell Davis running wild.
After the game when the 49ers demolished the Cardinals in Mexico City a few weeks back I bet the 49ers at +342 for two units to win the NFC......tt looks smart now as the 49ers have had the top defense AND offense in the entire league since week 8....however we all know that what counts is cashing tickets.
For how great the 49ers looked yesterday, they barely got by the Raiders the week before....that is life in the NFL.....it make me feel uneasy that I am backing has got it rolling going into the playoffs as the axiom, "it's how you're playing now" that the media puts out is bogus....I'd rather they would've put up a stinker in December, rather than in January.
I can remember some really dominant teams during the regular season that got beat in the playoffs......some examples.....
1) Oakland Raiders beat the Redskins in the Super Bowl when the Redskins had put up record points in the regular season....the Redskins got smoked in the Super Bowl when Marcus Allen ran riot all over them.
2) Those same Redskins upset the dominant Dolphins in the strike season when John Riggins ran all over the Dolphins.
3) Peyton Manning's dominant Colts start out 13-0, got beat by Steelers, as the Steelers up 3, fumble (Jerome Bettis) at one yard line in the last minute....the Colts' defensive back picks it up and is running it in for the winning score when Big Ben makes a game saving tackle at midfield....the Colts, much less dominant the next season beat the Bears in the Super Bowl.
4) Unbeaten Patriots get beat by the Giants (who had lost 6 or 7 regular season games) in the Super Bowl.
5) Minnesota Vikings set offensive records for most points scored, get beat in the NFC championship by the Falcons when their kicker who hadn't missed a kick the entire season misses a game tying field goal in the 4th quarter.
6) Dominant Packers and Brett Favre get beat by the Broncos as 10 point favorites in the Super Bowl...the Broncos are dominant the next season and win back to back Super Bowls with Terrell Davis running wild.
7) Dominant Bills get beat by the Giants (defense coached by Belichick) on a missed 47 yard field goal in the last seconds in the Super Bowl.
8) Chiefs begin ascension to the top with Mahomes and are favored in the AFC championship game over the Patriots and a game clinching interception is negated by a defensive lineman lining up offsides in the dying minutes.
9) Rams "greatest show on turf" lose as 14 point favorites to the Patriots, and it is later revealed that the Patriots hired people to videotape the Rams' preparation for the Super Bowl. This begins the long saga of the Patriots' run, with, how do you say it?..... questionable/illegal tactics that doesn't seem to touch that franchise.....like there is a guardian angel protecting the New England Patriots....there is the tuck rule game, Deflate Gate, the inexplicable decision making by the Atlanta Falcons in the Super Bowl when they had the game in the bag, and probably quite a few that we have not heard about.
There's plenty more....a dominant regular season doesn't guarantee anything....it's almost like regression in the regular season,...everything tends to even out.
I would not put it past someone like the Seahawks to beat the 49ers, as it hardly ever happens that teams have dominant wins in every game in a playoff run........that is not the sole reason I'm betting the Seahawks, but that bet is also a hedge on my 49ers conference championship bet with a 10 point middle opportunity,....obviously it'd be wonderful if the 49ers won the game by 10 or less points.
7) Dominant Bills get beat by the Giants (defense coached by Belichick) on a missed 47 yard field goal in the last seconds in the Super Bowl.
8) Chiefs begin ascension to the top with Mahomes and are favored in the AFC championship game over the Patriots and a game clinching interception is negated by a defensive lineman lining up offsides in the dying minutes.
9) Rams "greatest show on turf" lose as 14 point favorites to the Patriots, and it is later revealed that the Patriots hired people to videotape the Rams' preparation for the Super Bowl. This begins the long saga of the Patriots' run, with, how do you say it?..... questionable/illegal tactics that doesn't seem to touch that franchise.....like there is a guardian angel protecting the New England Patriots....there is the tuck rule game, Deflate Gate, the inexplicable decision making by the Atlanta Falcons in the Super Bowl when they had the game in the bag, and probably quite a few that we have not heard about.
There's plenty more....a dominant regular season doesn't guarantee anything....it's almost like regression in the regular season,...everything tends to even out.
I would not put it past someone like the Seahawks to beat the 49ers, as it hardly ever happens that teams have dominant wins in every game in a playoff run........that is not the sole reason I'm betting the Seahawks, but that bet is also a hedge on my 49ers conference championship bet with a 10 point middle opportunity,....obviously it'd be wonderful if the 49ers won the game by 10 or less points.
We are seeing some reverse line movement in the playoff games...if you believe in such things. I'm on the fence and have no strong opinion on whether reverse line movement is a thing, or not.
With reverse line movement we are assuming that there are some demigod handicappers out there that see things that everyone else doesn't see that the bookmaker respects enough not to go against these savant bettors. In the NFL sides I haven't seen line movement as being predictive indicator...the VSIN people have stated that line movement in totals downward is predictive on UNDERs. I have not gotten into the totals realm of handicapping enough to notice, but you know what?........now that I am aware of it, I'll start studying it a bit. As far as sides go, the line moved sharply upwards in the Packers' favor last night and we all know how that turned out.
Line movement has moved opposite what the public is betting in the case of the Seahawks and Dolphins and stayed steady despite overwhelming public support for the Bengals. I hate the word "sharp", but I will say there is a method in the bookies' madness and the line moves according to how bookmakers want it to move and those lines have not gone the way popular opinion would dictate that it "should".
Bookmakers take a side too.....the idea that they are balancing their action is a myth.
A long, long time ago (in Barry Sanders' and Chris Spielman's time), the Lions were playing the Eagles in the first round of the playoffs and the Lions had crushed it the last part of the season. They were about 3 point road favorites....I took the Eagles and Philly won something like 58-37. The bookie I dealt with said to me after the game that he took around 185 bets on the game....I was the only one to take the Eagles.....so there you go.
We are seeing some reverse line movement in the playoff games...if you believe in such things. I'm on the fence and have no strong opinion on whether reverse line movement is a thing, or not.
With reverse line movement we are assuming that there are some demigod handicappers out there that see things that everyone else doesn't see that the bookmaker respects enough not to go against these savant bettors. In the NFL sides I haven't seen line movement as being predictive indicator...the VSIN people have stated that line movement in totals downward is predictive on UNDERs. I have not gotten into the totals realm of handicapping enough to notice, but you know what?........now that I am aware of it, I'll start studying it a bit. As far as sides go, the line moved sharply upwards in the Packers' favor last night and we all know how that turned out.
Line movement has moved opposite what the public is betting in the case of the Seahawks and Dolphins and stayed steady despite overwhelming public support for the Bengals. I hate the word "sharp", but I will say there is a method in the bookies' madness and the line moves according to how bookmakers want it to move and those lines have not gone the way popular opinion would dictate that it "should".
Bookmakers take a side too.....the idea that they are balancing their action is a myth.
A long, long time ago (in Barry Sanders' and Chris Spielman's time), the Lions were playing the Eagles in the first round of the playoffs and the Lions had crushed it the last part of the season. They were about 3 point road favorites....I took the Eagles and Philly won something like 58-37. The bookie I dealt with said to me after the game that he took around 185 bets on the game....I was the only one to take the Eagles.....so there you go.
Bookmakers take a side too.....the idea that they are balancing their action is a myth.
A long, long time ago (in Barry Sanders' and Chris Spielman's time), the Lions were playing the Eagles in the first round of the playoffs and the Lions had crushed it the last part of the season. They were about 3 point road favorites....I took the Eagles and Philly won something like 58-37. The bookie I dealt with said to me after the game that he took around 185 bets on the game....I was the only one to take the Eagles.....so there you go.
Great post
"Three People Can Keep A Secret, IF Two Of Them Are Dead" ~ Benjamin Franklin
Bookmakers take a side too.....the idea that they are balancing their action is a myth.
A long, long time ago (in Barry Sanders' and Chris Spielman's time), the Lions were playing the Eagles in the first round of the playoffs and the Lions had crushed it the last part of the season. They were about 3 point road favorites....I took the Eagles and Philly won something like 58-37. The bookie I dealt with said to me after the game that he took around 185 bets on the game....I was the only one to take the Eagles.....so there you go.
@Indigo999 I look for the 49ers and/or Bill's to cover the spread. I love the Giants to win outright . I believe the Ravens will cover at a minimum!
Yes, oughta be a facinating weekend....the whole Lamar Jackson situation is disconcerting.....he's never been severely injured really and now when there is a contract issue he's out for multiple games, the metaphysics of it seems off.
There's been research on those that don't pay their dental bills,....they have a much higher incidence of continued dental issues than those that pay.
This whole exchange-for-services thing doesn't seem right in the Ravens/Jackson scenario....like he could be punishing the Ravens for the lack of a contract or the universe has intervened, or whatever.
@Indigo999 I look for the 49ers and/or Bill's to cover the spread. I love the Giants to win outright . I believe the Ravens will cover at a minimum!
Yes, oughta be a facinating weekend....the whole Lamar Jackson situation is disconcerting.....he's never been severely injured really and now when there is a contract issue he's out for multiple games, the metaphysics of it seems off.
There's been research on those that don't pay their dental bills,....they have a much higher incidence of continued dental issues than those that pay.
This whole exchange-for-services thing doesn't seem right in the Ravens/Jackson scenario....like he could be punishing the Ravens for the lack of a contract or the universe has intervened, or whatever.
Line has skyrocketed in the Bills/Dolphins game with news that Tua is out. I have still have my doubts about the Bills, as they've had a difficult time covering at home and only covered in a must-win game against the Pats on the back of two special teams touchdowns. I think Miami runs the ball and bootlegs Thompson in play action and could keep it close. Away dogs in round one of the playoffs that outrush their opponent have gone 25-5 ATS and Miami can run the ball when they decide they will, the Bills still have to account for the two stud Miami receivers.
Buying back on the Bills is not an option as I NEVER make plays where I could get middled, and in this case there's 2.5 points between my line and the present line. I'll take the 2 unit loss but I'm not willing to risk 4 units in this situation by now taking the Bills and having the game land on 12/13.
Lamar Jackson also almost certainly out. I'll tease the Bengals along with the Giants. Even if Huntley is the qb, the Ravens will more than likely outrush the Bengals, so I wouldn't put it past them to stay in it with the Bengals. Here we're hoping to get a four point middle that goes over the key numbers of 3, 4,6 and 7.
Plays.......adding:
5) Teaser Bengals -2.5 and Giants +9 -125, 2 units
Line has skyrocketed in the Bills/Dolphins game with news that Tua is out. I have still have my doubts about the Bills, as they've had a difficult time covering at home and only covered in a must-win game against the Pats on the back of two special teams touchdowns. I think Miami runs the ball and bootlegs Thompson in play action and could keep it close. Away dogs in round one of the playoffs that outrush their opponent have gone 25-5 ATS and Miami can run the ball when they decide they will, the Bills still have to account for the two stud Miami receivers.
Buying back on the Bills is not an option as I NEVER make plays where I could get middled, and in this case there's 2.5 points between my line and the present line. I'll take the 2 unit loss but I'm not willing to risk 4 units in this situation by now taking the Bills and having the game land on 12/13.
Lamar Jackson also almost certainly out. I'll tease the Bengals along with the Giants. Even if Huntley is the qb, the Ravens will more than likely outrush the Bengals, so I wouldn't put it past them to stay in it with the Bengals. Here we're hoping to get a four point middle that goes over the key numbers of 3, 4,6 and 7.
Plays.......adding:
5) Teaser Bengals -2.5 and Giants +9 -125, 2 units
f) Away playoff dogs that lost their previous two road games have been 13-6-1 ATS (+3.83), 11-9 straight up (-2.35), average line +6.2, average score 24.7-27.1......Dolphins, Giants, Ravens
Those away dogs in the above situation have gone 7-2 OVER on Sunday games by an average of 11 points/game.
This moves to 7-2 ATS (+3.5), 6-3 straight up (-1.89) in the first round...average line +5.4, average score 21.3-23.2
AD and playoffs = 1 and tS(W@A, N=2) = 0.0 and p:playoffs=0
f) Away playoff dogs that lost their previous two road games have been 13-6-1 ATS (+3.83), 11-9 straight up (-2.35), average line +6.2, average score 24.7-27.1......Dolphins, Giants, Ravens
Those away dogs in the above situation have gone 7-2 OVER on Sunday games by an average of 11 points/game.
This moves to 7-2 ATS (+3.5), 6-3 straight up (-1.89) in the first round...average line +5.4, average score 21.3-23.2
AD and playoffs = 1 and tS(W@A, N=2) = 0.0 and p:playoffs=0
Quote Originally Posted by Buffalobob89074: @Indigo999 No hope for Teddy to start? Is he out also? As far as I know, he is questionable......
Skylar Thompson is starting. Bills gonna be resting players by the 4th qtr. They should win by 21+ easily. Damar Hamlin is back home, was released from Buffalo General this morning. Micah Hyde was back at practice today. He won't play Sunday, but the fact he is even practicing is amazing. This game is gonna get ugly.
I love your posts, so just wanted to share what I know being a Bills STH.
Quote Originally Posted by Buffalobob89074: @Indigo999 No hope for Teddy to start? Is he out also? As far as I know, he is questionable......
Skylar Thompson is starting. Bills gonna be resting players by the 4th qtr. They should win by 21+ easily. Damar Hamlin is back home, was released from Buffalo General this morning. Micah Hyde was back at practice today. He won't play Sunday, but the fact he is even practicing is amazing. This game is gonna get ugly.
I love your posts, so just wanted to share what I know being a Bills STH.
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