I actually expect the sides percentage to go up slightly and the totals percentage to go up a little more significantly.
Been very busy lately - just got time to run the numbers. I'll post the rankings and score projections tomorrow night some time or as early as possible. Some early Week 14 plays are below - probably an add or two to come throughout the week as well.
2** Tennessee +5.5 2** Cincinnati -3 Cleveland -5.5 Arizona +10.5 Baltimore/Washington Under 47.5 Dallas/Cincinnati Under 46 Houston/New England Over 52
I actually expect the sides percentage to go up slightly and the totals percentage to go up a little more significantly.
Been very busy lately - just got time to run the numbers. I'll post the rankings and score projections tomorrow night some time or as early as possible. Some early Week 14 plays are below - probably an add or two to come throughout the week as well.
2** Tennessee +5.5 2** Cincinnati -3 Cleveland -5.5 Arizona +10.5 Baltimore/Washington Under 47.5 Dallas/Cincinnati Under 46 Houston/New England Over 52
Looking good again Sharp!!! Anyway you can post your projected scores for the games? Plugging in the numbers I got from my local last Sunday vs your projections I could have hit 10 outta 13 just betting solely on statistics, very interesting!!
Looking good again Sharp!!! Anyway you can post your projected scores for the games? Plugging in the numbers I got from my local last Sunday vs your projections I could have hit 10 outta 13 just betting solely on statistics, very interesting!!
Looking good again Sharp!!! Anyway you can post your projected scores for the games? Plugging in the numbers I got from my local last Sunday vs your projections I could have hit 10 outta 13 just betting solely on statistics, very interesting!!
Looking good again Sharp!!! Anyway you can post your projected scores for the games? Plugging in the numbers I got from my local last Sunday vs your projections I could have hit 10 outta 13 just betting solely on statistics, very interesting!!
congrats, great season thus far sharp!! Quick question, your projection shows Seattle beating Arizona by 13 yet you are on the Cards +10.5 this has me a little confused. Thanks, keep up the great work
congrats, great season thus far sharp!! Quick question, your projection shows Seattle beating Arizona by 13 yet you are on the Cards +10.5 this has me a little confused. Thanks, keep up the great work
congrats, great season thus far sharp!! Quick question, your projection shows Seattle beating Arizona by 13 yet you are on the Cards +10.5 this has me a little confused. Thanks, keep up the great work
The projected scores are based off my projected stats for each game - from what I've found best correlates to points scored and with what weights, etc, etc. The problem with statistical projections models is that they "add up" all their different projections over a certain average for each category, and come up with a total. This creates problems - if game flow is far from average, for example, these "add up" models will be way off. This is almost impossible to adjust though, as using anything besides a basic average to add up across each category will more than likely just create more noise in the model. So, I make my plays off my projections as a whole, rather than adding each separate category. I think this holds especially true for games with large spreads, such as the Arizona game. If Arizona doesn't pass the number of times you'd expect them to, to try to keep the score low and give themselves a better chance to win with their poor offense for example, the "added up" projections are likely to be off. Likewise for Seattle, if they're up by a couple scores and decide to run the ball and eat the clock up, which isn't where their biggest advantage in this game is. In either case, it's best to use every stat possible, integrated together. To summarize, some plays (the majority of the time in games with large spreads) that I make might differ from my projections (I don't make plays based off these projection, but rather the stats behind them), simply because I'm factoring in a game flow adjustment, indirectly. What I mean by indirectly, is that I don't adjust my stats or projections, or simply add an arbitrary advantage to Arizona because of the large spread (I think Denver will cover the 10 in Oakland, even though they're only projected to win by 2 more than Seattle). I'm just using past results that I've observed with the stats that I've projected. I hope this makes sense and didn't get too redundant or wordy. Best of luck this week.
congrats, great season thus far sharp!! Quick question, your projection shows Seattle beating Arizona by 13 yet you are on the Cards +10.5 this has me a little confused. Thanks, keep up the great work
The projected scores are based off my projected stats for each game - from what I've found best correlates to points scored and with what weights, etc, etc. The problem with statistical projections models is that they "add up" all their different projections over a certain average for each category, and come up with a total. This creates problems - if game flow is far from average, for example, these "add up" models will be way off. This is almost impossible to adjust though, as using anything besides a basic average to add up across each category will more than likely just create more noise in the model. So, I make my plays off my projections as a whole, rather than adding each separate category. I think this holds especially true for games with large spreads, such as the Arizona game. If Arizona doesn't pass the number of times you'd expect them to, to try to keep the score low and give themselves a better chance to win with their poor offense for example, the "added up" projections are likely to be off. Likewise for Seattle, if they're up by a couple scores and decide to run the ball and eat the clock up, which isn't where their biggest advantage in this game is. In either case, it's best to use every stat possible, integrated together. To summarize, some plays (the majority of the time in games with large spreads) that I make might differ from my projections (I don't make plays based off these projection, but rather the stats behind them), simply because I'm factoring in a game flow adjustment, indirectly. What I mean by indirectly, is that I don't adjust my stats or projections, or simply add an arbitrary advantage to Arizona because of the large spread (I think Denver will cover the 10 in Oakland, even though they're only projected to win by 2 more than Seattle). I'm just using past results that I've observed with the stats that I've projected. I hope this makes sense and didn't get too redundant or wordy. Best of luck this week.
1) What numbers point to Tennesse for you? First game with new OC was a dud last week and they are on the road as well, under a TD spread. Not sure Indy will be down even with that large emotional comeback last week as they are fighting like dawgs for a playoff spot. Your reasoning please sir.
2) Cleveland at home... Just curious is this because the stats are pointing there or bc theres a good chance the chiefs dont show up after everything that happened in KC last weekend.
Thanks for your input Sharp, been with ya for 3 weeks now and I believe I'm speaking for the community when I say thank you for sharing your work and picks with us. BOL mate!
1) What numbers point to Tennesse for you? First game with new OC was a dud last week and they are on the road as well, under a TD spread. Not sure Indy will be down even with that large emotional comeback last week as they are fighting like dawgs for a playoff spot. Your reasoning please sir.
2) Cleveland at home... Just curious is this because the stats are pointing there or bc theres a good chance the chiefs dont show up after everything that happened in KC last weekend.
Thanks for your input Sharp, been with ya for 3 weeks now and I believe I'm speaking for the community when I say thank you for sharing your work and picks with us. BOL mate!
I actually expect the sides percentage to go up slightly and the totals percentage to go up a little more significantly.
Been very busy lately - just got time to run the numbers. I'll post the rankings and score projections tomorrow night some time or as early as possible. Some early Week 14 plays are below - probably an add or two to come throughout the week as well.
2** Tennessee +5.5 2** Cincinnati -3 Cleveland -5.5 Arizona +10.5 Baltimore/Washington Under 47.5 Dallas/Cincinnati Under 46 Houston/New England Over 52
I actually expect the sides percentage to go up slightly and the totals percentage to go up a little more significantly.
Been very busy lately - just got time to run the numbers. I'll post the rankings and score projections tomorrow night some time or as early as possible. Some early Week 14 plays are below - probably an add or two to come throughout the week as well.
2** Tennessee +5.5 2** Cincinnati -3 Cleveland -5.5 Arizona +10.5 Baltimore/Washington Under 47.5 Dallas/Cincinnati Under 46 Houston/New England Over 52
First, grats on a great season so far (break your leg lad).
Second -thanks for sharing your tools of the trade in form of detailed rankings and score predictions.
Mostly me and you are on the same page, but I have some reservations about the Over on MNF. I strongly urge you to reconsider that pick as MNF is not subject to usual capping tools. MNF is usually most betted event in sports on a regular season and most bettors tend to back the favorites and over which forces the books and NFL take collaborative action in an opposite direction and if you'll go back and check the outcomes of MNF games - you'll find out that the logical outcomes based on stats and overall performance have nothing to do with actual results.
I could go on and on detailing each and every MNF but I will just sample the last one which resulted in unpopular dog's win and unpopular under. You'll find the same pattern going deeper in the past as well.
GL on all your picks lad!!
It just proves I was right to mention at your thread that you're absolutely serious capper contrary to the image you're trying to project with your joker like approach. GL Mick!
First, grats on a great season so far (break your leg lad).
Second -thanks for sharing your tools of the trade in form of detailed rankings and score predictions.
Mostly me and you are on the same page, but I have some reservations about the Over on MNF. I strongly urge you to reconsider that pick as MNF is not subject to usual capping tools. MNF is usually most betted event in sports on a regular season and most bettors tend to back the favorites and over which forces the books and NFL take collaborative action in an opposite direction and if you'll go back and check the outcomes of MNF games - you'll find out that the logical outcomes based on stats and overall performance have nothing to do with actual results.
I could go on and on detailing each and every MNF but I will just sample the last one which resulted in unpopular dog's win and unpopular under. You'll find the same pattern going deeper in the past as well.
GL on all your picks lad!!
It just proves I was right to mention at your thread that you're absolutely serious capper contrary to the image you're trying to project with your joker like approach. GL Mick!
Mick and Sharp are the real deal, records and explanations to prove it as well. If anyone ever bets on Mick being a gentleman, I would definitely fade that bet!
Mick, Sharp, two of the best on the forums, keep up the good work, BOL this week!
Mick and Sharp are the real deal, records and explanations to prove it as well. If anyone ever bets on Mick being a gentleman, I would definitely fade that bet!
Mick, Sharp, two of the best on the forums, keep up the good work, BOL this week!
I need some help with my picks ive betting and getting killed this year. Here is what i like on a 4 pick parlay my bookie numbers are.
Washington -1
Kansas city +6
Chicago -3
Atlanta -3
e another 3 pick parlay
Tennessee +7
Miami +10
Arizona +11
I also have another 4 Pick Parlay
Tampa Bay -7
under 42 bills vs rams
under 45 cowboys vs bengals
under 51 lions vs packers
HELP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You dont have to do parlays you know...Pick your best games and bet them straight up. Then throw in some parlays and teasers. If done right, you seldom lose big and more generally make a modest profit (best bets hit, most parlays lose) and can hit that big score when everything comes together.
I need some help with my picks ive betting and getting killed this year. Here is what i like on a 4 pick parlay my bookie numbers are.
Washington -1
Kansas city +6
Chicago -3
Atlanta -3
e another 3 pick parlay
Tennessee +7
Miami +10
Arizona +11
I also have another 4 Pick Parlay
Tampa Bay -7
under 42 bills vs rams
under 45 cowboys vs bengals
under 51 lions vs packers
HELP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You dont have to do parlays you know...Pick your best games and bet them straight up. Then throw in some parlays and teasers. If done right, you seldom lose big and more generally make a modest profit (best bets hit, most parlays lose) and can hit that big score when everything comes together.
You dont have to do parlays you know...Pick your best games and bet them straight up. Then throw in some parlays and teasers. If done right, you seldom lose big and more generally make a modest profit (best bets hit, most parlays lose) and can hit that big score when everything comes together.
I feel ya ttplays thanks for that knowledge.... But which one of my parlays looking good what should i take off or switch
You dont have to do parlays you know...Pick your best games and bet them straight up. Then throw in some parlays and teasers. If done right, you seldom lose big and more generally make a modest profit (best bets hit, most parlays lose) and can hit that big score when everything comes together.
I feel ya ttplays thanks for that knowledge.... But which one of my parlays looking good what should i take off or switch
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.