NFL WILDCARD WEEKEND BETTING TRENDS

NFL

Wild Card Round

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Trend Report
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Cleveland @ Houston
Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games at home
Houston is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Cleveland

Miami @ Kansas City
Miami
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Miami's last 16 games on the road
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami

Pittsburgh @ Buffalo
Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Buffalo's last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh

Green Bay @ Dallas
Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay

LA Rams @ Detroit
LA Rams
LA Rams is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
LA Rams is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Detroit
Detroit is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games at home

Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games on the road
Philadelphia is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games on the road
Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games at home
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

Saturday: 13 January 24 | 16:30 NRG Stadium
FEATURED PICK INFORMATION

The Browns have an implied probability of 58.68% to win the first-round playoff matchup based on the moneyline that has been set. Cleveland is 10-0 SU in its last 10 games against an opponent in the AFC South Division. Houston is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games against an opponent in the AFC North Division. The Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. Dunkel's Pick: Cleveland (-3).

Cleveland Browns
RANKING
Dunkel Ranking:5
Dunkel Rating:137.770
Dunkel Pick:(-3) Over
DUNKEL PREDICTION
Browns
Winning Margin: -9.5
Total Score: 49
VEGAS PREDICTION
Browns
Winning Margin: -3
Total Score: 44

Houston Texans
RANKING
Dunkel Ranking:9
Dunkel Rating:128.385

Saturday: 13 January 24 | 20:00 Arrowhead Stadium

Miami Dolphins
RANKING
Dunkel Ranking:7
Dunkel Rating:135.330
Dunkel Pick:(+3.5) Under
DUNKEL PREDICTION
Dolphins
Winning Margin: -2.5
Total Score: 34
VEGAS PREDICTION
Chiefs
Winning Margin: -3.5
Total Score: 44

Kansas City Chiefs
RANKING
Dunkel Ranking:10
Dunkel Rating:132.928

Sunday: 14 January 24 | 13:00 Highmark Stadium

Pittsburgh Steelers
RANKING
Dunkel Ranking:13
Dunkel Rating:131.609
DUNKEL PREDICTION
Bills
Winning Margin: 13
Total Score: 39
VEGAS PREDICTION
Bills
Winning Margin: -10
Total Score: 36

Buffalo Bills
RANKING
Dunkel Ranking:3
Dunkel Rating:144.638
Dunkel Pick:(-10) Over

Sunday: 14 January 24 | 16:30 AT&T Stadium

Green Bay Packers
RANKING
Dunkel Ranking:14
Dunkel Rating:130.988
DUNKEL PREDICTION
Cowboys
Winning Margin: 14
Total Score: 40
VEGAS PREDICTION
Cowboys
Winning Margin: -7.5
Total Score: 50

Dallas Cowboys
RANKING
Dunkel Ranking:6
Dunkel Rating:144.943
Dunkel Pick:(-7.5) Under

Sunday: 14 January 24 | 20:00 Ford Field

Los Angeles Rams
RANKING
Dunkel Ranking:15
Dunkel Rating:134.216
Dunkel Pick:(+3) Under
DUNKEL PREDICTION
Lions
Winning Margin: 1
Total Score: 47
VEGAS PREDICTION
Lions
Winning Margin: -3
Total Score: 52

Detroit Lions
RANKING
Dunkel Ranking:4
Dunkel Rating:135.150

Monday: 15 January 24 | 20:15 Raymond James Stadium

Philadelphia Eagles
RANKING
Dunkel Ranking:8
Dunkel Rating:139.123
Dunkel Pick:(-3) Over
DUNKEL PREDICTION
Eagles
Winning Margin: -19
Total Score: 47
VEGAS PREDICTION
Eagles
Winning Margin: -3
Total Score: 44

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
RANKING
Dunkel Ranking:12
Dunkel Rating:120.201

Great info. GL 

@Fuse

 Thank you Fuse, always appreciate your comments and posted plays, Enjoy a very happy, healthy and prosperous New Year!

TREND: Underdogs are 20-10 in wild-card games since 2017, and 13-17 outright; at least one underdog has won outright in each season. Analysis: This makes sense. The public has spent 18 weeks watching mediocre teams lose and fully expects the favorites to cruise, so lines may be pushed up arti

Wild Card Round

Saturday’s games

Browns (11-6) @ Texans (10-7)
— Cleveland is in playoffs for third time since their reboot in 1999.
— Browns’ last playoff spot was 2020; they split two playoff games that year.
— Browns won four of their last five games; last week’s loss didn’t matter.
— Flacco is 113-87 as an NFL starter, 10-5 in playoff games.
— Browns are 1-2 ATS as road favorite TY, 5-12 since 2013.
— Cleveland is 7-3 SU in last 11 games overall.
— Browns are 8-0 giving up less than 24 points, 3-6 allowing 24+.
— Browns are 4-5 ATS TY in games with spread of 3 or loss points.
— over is 5-1 in last six Cleveland games.
— Coach Stefanski has 38-31 career record, 1-1 in playoffs.
— AFC North favorites are 19-9-1 ATS outside the division.


— Houston is 7-3 in its last ten games SU.
— Texans are 6-3 SU on road at home TY.
— Houston is 13-15-1 ATS last 29 games as a home dog, 2-2 TY.
— Last seven games, Texans are +7 in turnovers (10-3).
— This is Texans’ first playoff spot since 2019.
— Houston is 4-6 all-time in playoff games, 4-2 at home.
— Texans are 8-5-1 ATS in last 13 games with spread of 3 or loss points.
— Texans are 2-6 when they allow 20+ points.
— under is 5-3 in their last eight home games.
— Rookie QB Stroud is 9-6 as an NFL starter; this is his first playoff game.
— Rookie HC Ryans is 10-7 this year; obviously, this is his first playoff game.
— AFC South underdogs are 13-14 ATS outside the division.


— Browns won here 36-22 Christmas Eve, but Stroud didn’t play.
— Cleveland won last four series games.
— Browns won 27-14 in Houston LY, 36-22 this year.
— Since 2012, #5-seeds who were road favorites at #4-seeds are 5-2 ATS.


Dolphins (11-6) @ Chiefs (11-6) (-4.5)
— Dolphins are 2-3 SU in last five games, after a 9-3 start.
— Miami is 1-5 SU vs teams that made the playoffs.
— Favorites are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games.
— Miami scored 30+ points in eight of 11 wins; 18.5 ppg in losses.
— Last five games, Miami is +6 in turnovers.
— Dolphins haven’t won a playoff game since 2000.
— Miami lost its last five playoff games SU.
— Under McDaniel, Miami is 9-13 ATS as an underdog (0-5 TY).
— under is 4-1 in their last five games.
— Star WR Hill used to play for the Chiefs.
— Tagovailoa is 32-19 as an NFL starter, 0-0 in playoffs.
— Miami made playoffs LY; Skylar Thompson was QB in that game.
— coach McDaniel is 0-1 in playoff games.
— AFC East underdogs are 7-13-1 outside the division.


— Chiefs won three of last four games, after a 2-4 skid.
— KC scored one offensive TD in last two games; Mahomes DNP LW.
— Chiefs kicked eight field goals last two weeks.
— Chiefs are 1-4 SU vs teams that made the playoffs (win was vs Miami).
— Chiefs haven’t had a plus turnover game since Week 6.
— In last 11 games, Chiefs are minus-11 in turnovers (6-17)
— Since 2019, Chiefs are 10-2 in playoff games, winning 2 Super Bowls.
— Under is 9-3-1 in their last 14 games.
— coach Reid is 22-16 in playoff games, 12-7 with KC.
— Mahomes is 85-25 SU as an NFL starter, 11-3 in playoffs.
— AFC West favorites are 13-15 ATS outside the division.


— Weather forecast: frigid night, temps near zero. Very cold.
— Chiefs beat Miami 21-14 in Germany, back in Week 8 (was 21-0 at half).
— Chiefs won last four series games; their last loss to Miami? 2011.
— Teams split last four meetings played in Arrowhead.
— Last six years, #6-seeds are 9-3 SU vs #3-seeds in this round.

Sunday’s games

Steelers (10-7) @ Bills (11-6) (-10)
— Steelers won last three games, in QB Rudolph’s only ’23 starts.
— Rudolph is 8-4-1 as an NFL starter; this is his first playoff start.
— Steelers scored 13.4 ppg in last five games Rudolph didn’t start.
— Last three games, Pittsburgh converted 19-42 on third down.
— Steelers are 5-3 SU on road this year.
— Pittsburgh is 22-12 ATS last 34 games as a road dog (3-2 TY).
— Steelers haven’t won a playoff game since 2016.
— Pittsburgh lost last four playoff games, giving up 42.8 ppg.
— Four of last last Steeler games went over the total.
— coach Tomlin is 8-9 SU in playoff games,
— AFC North underdogs are 7-6-1 ATS outside the division.


— Buffalo is 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS since its bye week.
— Only one of those five wins was by more than seven points.
— Bills are 9-0 giving up 20 or less points, 2-6 giving up more than 20.
— Last seven games, Buffalo has a +5 turnover ratio.
— Last six games, Bills ran ball for 152.8 yards/game.
— Bills are 4-5 ATS as a home favorite this year.
— Buffalo outscored last six foes 102-47 in first half.
— Four of their last six games went over the total.
— Josh Allen is 67-34 as an NFL starter, 4-4 in playoff games.
— Bills are 4-3 in playoffs last three years, 4-1 at home.
— coach McDermott is 4-5 in playoff games.
— AFC East favorites are 8-12-1 ATS outside the division.


— Two head coaches were roommates in college.
— Buffalo won three of last four series games.
— Steelers lost 38-3 here, in Week 5 last year.
— Last three years, #2-seeds are 4-2 ATS vs #7-seeds in this round.


Packers (9-8) @ Cowboys (12-5)
— Packers are 6-2 SU/5-3 ATS in its last eight games.
— Packers are 14-7 ATS last 21 games as a road underdog (3-3 TY).
— Green Bay outscored last seven foes 112-51 in first half.
— Last six games, Packers are +5 in turnovers (9-4)
— Packers are 6-5 TY in one-score games.
— Green Bay is 3-3 SU vs teams that made the playoffs
— Last six games, Green Bay is 58-115 (50.4%) on third down.
— since 2014, Packers are 6-6 in playoffs, but that was with Rodgers at QB.
— Jordan Love is 9-9 as an NFL starter; this is his first playoff start.
— Over is 7-2 in their last nine games.
— LaFleur is 58-30 as an NFL coach, 2-3 in playoffs.
— NFC North underdogs are 13-9-2 ATS outside the division.


— Dallas won seven of its last nine games SU.
— Cowboys are 8-0 SU/6-2 ATS as a home favorite TY.
— Dallas scored 15.8 ppg in losses, 35.8 ppg in wins.
— Dallas is 3-4 SU vs teams that made the playoffs
— Cowboys are +16 in turnovers in wins, minus-7 in losses.
— since 1998, Dallas is 4-11 in playoff games (2-3 since 2018)
— Dallas split its last six home playoff games.
— QB Prescott is 75-45 as an NFL starter, 2-4 in playoff games.
— Four of last five Dallas games stayed under the total.
— McCarthy won a Super Bowl coaching Green Bay.
— McCarthy is 11-10 in playoff games, 1-2 with Dallas.
— NFC East favorites are 9-10-2 ATS outside the division.


— Green Bay won seven of last eight series games.
— Dallas lost 31-28 in OT at Lambeau last year.
— Packers won last three visits to Dallas, scoring 37-35-34, with Rodgers at QB.
— Last three years, #2-seeds are 4-2 ATS vs #7-seeds in this round.

Rams (10-7) @ Lions (12-5)
— Rams are 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS last eight games.
— LA is 2-6 SU vs teams that made the playoffs
— Rams are 4-0 giving up 16 or less points, 6-7 giving up 19+ points.
— Rams are 9-3 when they run ball for 92+ yards, 1-4 when they don’t.
— Rams were outscored 98-46 in 2nd halves of their losses.
— Stafford is 102-110-1 as an NFL starter, 28-17 with LA.
— Before that, Stafford was Detroit’s QB for 12 seasons.
— Stafford is 4-3 in playoff games, 4-0 with the Rams.
— Rams won their last five games in domed stadiums.
— under McVay, Rams are 77-48, 7-3 in playoff games.
— Six of Rams’ last seven games went over the total.
— NFC West underdogs are 12-8-1 ATS outside the division.


— Lions are in playoffs for first time since 2016.
— This is Detroit’s first home playoff game in 30 years.
— Lions’ last playoff win was in 1991.
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 9-4 ATS as home favorite (5-3 TY).
— Under Campbell, Lions are 35-15-1 ATS overall.
— Goff is 68-53-1 as an NFL starter, 24-23-1 with the Lions.
— Before that, he started for the Rams for five years.
— Last four games, Detroit is +6 in turnovers
— Last four games, Lions held opponents to 62.5 rushing yards/game.
— Lions are 9-1 when they score 26+ points, 3-4 when they don’t.
— over is 10-4 in their last 14 games.
— NFC North favorites are 12-7-1 ATS outside the division.


— Teams split their last six meetings.
— In the ’21 game, Lions ran onside kick/fake punt in first 5:00 of game.
— LA won that game 28-19, outscoring Lions 11-0 in 4th quarter.
— Lions’ GM Holmes came to Detroit from the Rams.
— Last six years, #6-seeds are 9-3 SU vs #3-seeds in this round.


Monday’s game

Eagles (11-6) @ Buccaneers (9-8)
— Philly QB Hurts has sprained middle finger on passing hand.
— Eagles are 1-5 SU/0-6 ATS in last six games.
— Eagles are 6-2 SU vs teams that made the playoffs
— Philly is 11-1 when it scores 21+ points, 0-5 if they don’t.
— Last seven weeks, Philly gave up 30.9 ppg.
— Last five games, Philly is minus-8 in turnovers.
— Eagles are 3-3-1 ATS as a road favorite this year.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 36-19 SU, in 2-2 in playoffs.
— Hurts is 36-19 as an NFL starter, 2-2 in playoffs.
— Under is 4-0 in Eagles’ last four road games.
— Eagles are minus-11 in turnovers in their losses (+2 in wins).
— NFC East favorites are 9-10-2 ATS outside the division.


— Tampa Bay won/covered five of its last six games.
— Bucs are 1-5 SU vs teams that made the playoffs
— Tampa Bay is 4-4 SU at home TY, 1-2 ATS as a home dog.
— Tampa Bay is 10-5-1 ATS last 16 games as a home dog.
— Bucs are 2-7 when they allow more than 18 points.
— Bucs are 7-1 when they allow less than 18 points.
— Last three years, Tampa Bay is 5-2 in playoff games.
— Bucs won Super Bowl in 2002/2020; in between, they were 0-2 in playoffs.
— Tampa Bay’s last three games stayed under the total.
— Mayfield is 41-47 as an NFL starter; 1-1 in playoffs, 9-8 with Bucs.
— Bowles is 43-59 as an NFL coach, 0-1 in playoff games.
— NFC South underdogs are 10-16 ATS outside the division.


— Eagles (-5) won 25-11 in Tampa back in Week 3.
— Philly ran for 201 yards, outgained Bucs 472-174.
— Tampa Bay won four of last five series games.
— Since 2012, #5-seeds who were road favorites at #4-seeds are 5-2 ATS.

GREEN BAY (9 - 8) at DALLAS (12 - 5) - 1/14/2024, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 34-20 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 34-20 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
DALLAS is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 294-245 ATS (+24.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 294-245 ATS (+24.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 79-55 ATS (+18.5 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 85-57 ATS (+22.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

LA RAMS (10 - 7) at DETROIT (12 - 5) - 1/14/2024, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 87-121 ATS (-46.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
DETROIT is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season.
DETROIT is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
DETROIT is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

BIG A & MARC L WILDCARD GOY’S

LIONS

PHILADELPHIA (11 - 6) at TAMPA BAY (9 - 8) - 1/15/2024, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 2-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

PITTSBURGH (10 - 7) at BUFFALO (11 - 6) - 1/15/2024, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 47-27 ATS (+17.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 105-70 ATS (+28.0 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games in January games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-1 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Bills vs. Steelers Betting Records & Stats

• Buffalo has an average point total of 45.9 in their contests this year, 7.4 more points than this game's over/under.
• The Bills have covered the spread seven times in 17 games with a set spread.
• The Bills have won 71.4% of their games as moneyline favorites (10-4).
• Buffalo has played in three games as a moneyline favorite with odds of -550 or shorter and won each of them.

• Steelers games this season have had a combined scoring total higher than 38.5 points in eight of 17 outings.
• Pittsburgh has a 38.8-point average over/under in their outings this season, 0.3 more points than this game's total.
• The Steelers are 10-7-0 against the spread this year.
• This season, the Steelers have been the underdog 10 times and won six of those games.
• Pittsburgh has not entered a game this season with longer moneyline odds than +400.
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Bills vs. Steelers Betting Insights & Trends

• Buffalo has one win against the spread, and is 3-0 overall, over its last three contests.
• In Buffalo's past three contests, it has gone over the total twice.
• The Bills have outscored their opponents by a total of 140 points this season (8.2 per game), and opponents of the Steelers have outscored them by 20 points on the year (1.2 per game).

• Pittsburgh is unbeaten against the spread and 3-0 overall over its last three contests.
• In their past three games, the Steelers have hit the over twice.
• The Bills have outscored their opponents by a total of 140 points this season (8.2 per game), and opponents of the Steelers have outscored them by 20 points on the year (1.2 per game).
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Eagles vs. Buccaneers Betting Records & Stats

• Philadelphia's games this year have an average point total of 46.3, 3.3 more points than this matchup's over/under.
• The Eagles are 6-8-3 against the spread this season.
• The Eagles have won 71.4% of their games as moneyline favorites (10-4).
• Philadelphia has a 10-4 record (winning 71.4% of its games) when it has played as a moneyline favorite of -150 or shorter.

• The Buccaneers have combined with their opponent to score more than 43 points in five of 17 games this season.
• The average over/under for Tampa Bay's contests this season is 41.3, 1.7 fewer points than this game's point total.
• The Buccaneers have gone 11-6-0 against the spread this year.
• The Buccaneers have entered the game as underdogs 11 times this season and won five, or 45.5%, of those games.
• This season, Tampa Bay has won three of its seven games when it is the underdog by at least +125 on the moneyline.

Eagles vs. Buccaneers Betting Insights & Trends

• Philadelphia has not covered the spread and is 1-2 overall over its last three games.
• Philadelphia has hit the over twice in its past three games.
• The Eagles have scored just five more points than their opponents this year (0.3 per game), and the Buccaneers have outscored opponents by 23 points (1.4 per game).

• Tampa Bay has covered the spread twice and is 1-2 overall over its last three games.
• In their past three games, the Buccaneers have not hit the over once.
• The Eagles have outscored their opponents by only five points this season (0.3 points per game), and the Buccaneers have put up 23 more points than their opponents (1.4 per game).