NFL WEEK 4 ......................2025

Thanks ..........

week --- 0-1, lost .55 units

This game was a classic example of a team regressing in pts per plays margin while still winning the game.

Something I did talk about.

And covering the spread, it was the small line made this possible, a SU win was going to be a cover.

Seahawks fall from .290 to .226 after posting a .047 pts per plays margin VS Zona.

A .226 is still not sustainable long term.

Seahawks pretty much dominated this game. They really showed something this game.

According to PR II this was the most dominate game Seahawks have played this season even more dominating then they're 44-13 win over Saints. Not that close really.

But what is typical, Seahawks way over-scored they're play on the field VS Saints making it seem more dominate but since that is not sustainable they now way under-scored they're play on the field.

This is how it works, so something for people to try and understand, things regress. They're play on the field did not regress only they're scoring based on that play.

But they're play is going to regress, it is coming and soon.

I've charted this kind of stuff for over 20 years.

Looks like Seattle will be in the top 5 after 4 weeks in pts per plays margin.

Most every year at least 3 of the top 5 will make the playoffs. And a good number of times it will be 4 teams of the top 5.

They look like a pretty good team.

PR II --- 8.56

That is a good solid playoff team but not a SB champ. 

But it is early , I think they regress soon , then we'll see where they stand as they've had a run of good games which will be off-set by a poorer game or 2.

other system ..........

Falcons +1.5 over Wash --- .55 units

looks like this line is dropping or juiced so seems like 1.5 might be the best line i can find with my books.

I'll  wait out the others.

I'll  post all the picks at the end of thread when all have been made.

Back Teams lost by 28 or more playing a team won by 17 or more is 58% supports my other system.

@theclaw

 I love 13 point teasers most people don’t like them cause all it takes is one to screw me but to get 13 points off the original line In the NFL is huge I got 

balty +8.5 mnf had to sweat that one pack +7 ties lose and Balty vs chiefs +10.5 Detroit vs clev +4 

I’ve been hitting these the past 7of 9 years had my best season was last year cause I was middling games like Monday night I took Detroit +4.5 and hit first 3 weeks hoping for another good week 

also got Seminoles +6 to Hoosiers +6 to pack +6.5 to Detroit +4 

1991 Redskins .46 Points per Play
2018 Chiefs .57 Points per Play

There's probably more.  I just looked these two up because I knew they were exceptional.

That is not true.  The query is simple and straightforward:

p:margin < -27.5 and op:margin > 16.5

SU:  32-55-1 (-5.4,36.8%)

ATS:  47-40-1 (0.5,54.0%)

Neither 54.0% ATS nor an average margin of 0.5 points provides any confidence.  Adding "and H and -3.2 < line < 3.2" make the ATS 5-5.

Nothing to see here.

Good luck this week.

I used to love 13 point teasers as well. The problem was that they were so favorable that the books started raising the juice on them. I was paying -120. Then I saw books raise to -130 and -140. And some books made it a rule that you could only tease 2 totals. I loved teasing totals to like over 24.5.

Figures though. When I was playing teasers, I think I saw the only time ever where there was 0 points scored in the second half. It wasn't snowing or anything either. 

I don't play teasers at all anymore. In fact, I actually try to put together teasers sometimes to see which game will bust them. 

You looking at the wrong stat Jimmy.

I am talking about margin not only offense.

Offense - defense = margin

2018 KC margin was .184 after the playoffs and about .165 before the playoffs.

It is very difficult for a team to finish regular season over .200.

The 2007 Pats 16-0 one of the more dominate teams finished regular season around .254.

In no world will Seattle sustain .290.

2013 SB Champs Seattle did finish above .200 likely similar to the 2007 Pats.

Something is wrong dog. Can you really trust these data-bases ?

That was posted on a you tube channel, I wrote it down right away so as to get it correct because it sounded like a decent regression indictator.

I will try to run the query at a different  database and see what it says..............

Yes that is alot of extra points for sure. And the nice thing is you can hit those often.

I used to play ML parlays on the home teams in the NBA.

Mostly 2 or 3 team parlays trying to get close to or a little better then even money. Sometimes I needed 3 teams do get there. Never played 4, try to be conservative to increase my chances of not losing my money.

People go for big odds because they think they'll  hit big but they lose alot before hitting if they hit at all.

I could have strong runs hitting many days in a row.

How many teams did you need to play to get -120 ?

Jayden and the reciver ruled out so Falcons become the favorite. 

I did get the best of the lines. Maybe, maybe not as to whether it matters .

@theclaw

 Wouldn’t the Saints fall into this category as well?

I believe it was Bovada/Bodog at the time. 4 team, 13 point teaser at -120 odds, no restrictions on totals. 

Another reason to love Peyton Manning at the time. I think he only lost outright like once when Colts were -13 or so. 

Looks like they're -140 now on Bovada. And -150 on Bet Online. 

Yep. Going  back to 2010 only 2 teams were so bad as to finish below (-.200). 

That was in 2011 and 2012 and 1 team was (-.204) barely over (-.200)

Saints(-.264)

Titans (-.236)

Or something close to these. 

These teams will regress most likely. But when they will is difficult to know unless they have some strong regression indicators.

There is no real extreme performances that could make it predictable   according  to my methods anyway.

It could very well come in the 2cd half of the season. 

It's  the Bounce Factor ...................

Rams -3.5 (+100) over Colts --- 1 unit

Colts playing on a unsustainable level. Most likely they will fall soon.

This method is a 2 game fade on Colts if they don't regress VS Rams we fade them again while adding units to the play.

Other system ...................

Bucs +3.5 over Eagles --- 1.1 units

Seems all my plays except Packers are on the same side as sharp players I see on you tube.

I don't know if that is a good thing or a bad thing though.

2 more plays to add later or tomorrow  morning. 

I got the exact same results (ATS: 47-40-1 (0.5,54.0%) at Killer Sports as I got at Gimme the Dog.  I would love to see verification of any 58% query with an average ATS or OU margin of at least 58% with a minimum sample size of at least 20 games.

That should be "with an average ATS or OU margin of at least 3 points".

@theclaw

 Good Luck Claw ......like the Rams and Bucs as well.