YTD (NFL): 5-5 ATS (BIG PLAY!!!: 1-2 ATS)
First of all, let us never forget this day almost 25 years ago. To any of you who were subject to loss or PTSD from having been in/around the mass killing at the WTC, I join you in having this engrained in my life forever and I send you my sympathy if today poses a challenge.
As for the wagering side, last week was probably one of the strangest weeks in my NFL betting cycle. I hopefully attribute that to it being the first week but I won on the Philly FH OVER, laid off the LAC/KC game which I would have lost on, and then came back with a horrid 0-3 morning in the NFL kickoff, losing a total of FIVE units b/c two of those plays were BIG PLAYS! I couldn't get back on for the afternoon games b/c I was at Chase Field with crummy wifi, then hammered out the Ravens FH and the Vikings FG, but only normal plays to ensure I am not completely lost this year. Which I'm happy to say I'm not.
Today's game will be telling on my end because I think this line is a bit of joke. I know, there are many handicappers split on this and the Commanders were pretty good on the road last year (5-3) in the regular season but 5-5-1 ATS overall on the road. But they also took a lot of teams by surprise and I do not think that will happen tonight. Micah Parsons is going to be as motivated as ever and coming out on TNF is a great party for him to be a part of. The Commanders beat up on the lowly Giants last week but this is an entirely different situation and a different quarterback. Because of this, I believe the Washington defense didn't get tested the way people are perhaps sizing them up.
As for GB, it was a walloping on all levels and raises the questions for the Lions as to whether the loss of Ben Johnson as OC was the reason or maybe the Packers defense is actually pretty solid. Well, we will find out tonight. I do not think that McLaurin is in game shape and I was always wary of Deebo who seems to get underrated more than most other players given his production. But the Washington offense is NOT better than that of the Lions and the Packers were good against the TE last year so I think Ertz is less of a factor. I think the big square off is in between the trenches, as both RB's will have some work cut out for them.
The line of 3 seems pretty fair but they are saying if this game was played on a neutral field that the teams would be even. I just can't get my hands around that because I don't think that's the case. I'm not sure you see a blowout but, if one were to happen, it would be by the Packers. No other way to play this game...
GREEN BAY (-3)
Keeping this as a regular play for now I'm good with winning and focusing on the really big ones this upcoming weekend. Have to sort out my college football difficulties as well so probably need to spend some time there. I will be going back to posting in soccer which has always been good to me. As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...
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