YTD (NFL): 7-4-1 ATS (BIG PLAY: 1-0 ATS)
Decent first week aided by the BIG PLAY win and then the MNF over. I feel like the line movements are somewhat similar here as the team that I think will be victorious has the line movement in an opposite direction. For sure this game is in Miami and they are good at home but not unbeatable. Josh Allen vs. Miami on the other hand...11-1 against Miami in the last 12. No real point in putting the ATS number because in this case he is getting points and has owned the Dolphins. Allen has also routinely had success against Miami, throwing for at least two touchdowns in all 13 of his career starts against the Dolphins. So I do not see how this game will stay UNDER and I also don't think the Bills are going to come out sleep walking again.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Bills have done an excellent job in the past of containing the focal point of Miami’s passing attack: Tyreek Hill. The perennial All-Pro has been limited to receiving lines of 7/69/0, 7/82/1, 3/58/0, 9/69/1 and 2/33/0 in his five games against Buffalo since being traded to the Dolphins. The Miami defense has had no such luck against Allen and while he profiles similar to Trevor Lawrence, who had some early success last week vs. the Miami D, he is MUCH better, do not kid yourselves.
Rain might be in the forecast but I don't think that will stop Buffalo who can also run the ball effectively. I realize the Miami RB Achane is potentially not going to suit up so that's another tip of the scales to Buffalo. But I'm not overthinking this one, historical precedence takes over and when Miami can beat Buffalo is when Miami can be taken as a serious contender for the AFC East. No other way to play tonight:
BUFFALO (+3) -130...BIG PLAY!!!
OVER 23.5 FH (BUFFALO/MIAMI)
Just as I had predicted last week with Pittsburgh, I will do the same with Buffalo and sprinkle a bit on the ML. This will NOT count to the record and if the BIG PLAY loses it will be a double loss (or double win after it cashes). I know you might ask well if you think they will win outright why pay the extra juice and that's b/c the 3 in this game could be very very useful. I'm ok paying a bit more to back the favorite that usually owns the dog. It's like when the Ravens play Miami, they seem to always end up victorious. Think the same result happens here.
I'm sure there are many good handicappers you follow but make sure to do your own research. As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...
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