Regarding packers...
I cannot remember the last time my model spit out a 5 unit play. It did on the Packers this week. I had to scale it down because of what I feel I know about Willis, but if this was later in the season it would be a huge play for me. Week 2, Willis.... Makes it 2.5 but I am going to feel stupid if the Pack come out and run them out of the stadium for not betting more.
Texans... This is the last week you get them undervalued IMO. If they come out and lay it on the Bears - you are going to be paying a premium. Good - maybe great - matchup for the Texans against Chi.
GL Sunday
Pack thoughts above in previous post...
Panthers are a hold your nose and bet situation. Too many points - and too much overreaction to last week. Could the Panthers be as bad as last week? Yes. If they are, they will get blown out again. But the Chargers are not a complete team, and laying 5 on the road to a team that has serious weaknesses on both sides of the ball either means the Panthers are a historically bad team or they cover. I will take my chances. Last week diminished my overall on Carolina, but not to the point of this just yet.
@vanzack
Agree. Dameco Ryans is a defense coach. Went back and watched whole Bears/Titans game. Both. Caleb Williams and Will Levis looked erratic in the pocket. Both have sub par offensive lines and were running for their lives. Both had negative plays where they didn’t set their feet and made dangerous passes.
was the Titans D just good, or is Williams just looking like a game #1 rookie? A little of both I think. I think the Texans are going to put some pressure on him and he’ll struggle on the road.
Texans will be on Williams all night. Lets see what the rookie can do.
A little bit difficult because there are so many injuries on the Rams. So this is more me and less statistics driven than most numbers I come out with... But I have Cards -3.5.
The Patriots seem like a week one overreaction. I know the Patriots led, or 30th something, the league in one score outcomes last season, but they only average 15 ish points per game.
Is the Patriots defense good enough to hold Seattle to less than that? Was Cincinnati really a great barometer considering they didn't show up on offense? They never really tried to wear down the defense. Yes Mayo may have conditioned the team well. But being in "football shape" is a thing for a reason.
My fear is once the rest of the league gets geared up and playing 100% New England's lack of talent will rear it's ugly head again... I know Seattle won't be at 100% either, but 16-20 points to win doesn't seem outlandish to me.
I bet right away this week as I was in reno and dont bet online.
So I went with the following - have these in some ats parlays and ml parlays
chargers -6 lots of points but just a play on how bad bryce young was - qb take herbert vs young
niners -5 and -5.5 this is strictly a play on how well niners played and going against darnold and addison out - qb take purdy vs darnold
kc -6 kc had a ton of weapons compared to the bengals - concern is reid is conservative at times - qb take mahomes vs burrows
colts -3.5 This is tough one but I like what i saw in richardson - qb take richardson vs willis (though line coming down worried love will play)
eagles -6.5 Cousins screwed the pooch for me in a two way parlay that last interception was typical cousins - tough call on qb here but eagles better team
So opposite you vanzack on a couple
Van, just curious what your take is on the Browns and Bengals.
I know some sharp guys on both. The argument is that Watson, as horrible as he looked, was without his two starting tackles against a good Cowboys pass rush, with Jerome Ford who is a backup RB.
The argument for the Bengals is that they always show up in Arrowhead vs the Chiefs. Andy Reid is coming off a mini buy (10 days rest) and his record is very good in this situation so it gives me pause but 6 points feels like a lot in this game. Curious what your thoughts are.
I would be on the Browns also, if anyone. But I cannot bet on Watson until I see something. They have OLine injury issues still - and I want no part of Watson under pressure - because Jax can bring it. But they probably will be able to run, and keep it close. Njoku out also. Just too much uncertainty for me.
Although I understand the argument for the Bengals - I just cant do it. Those wrist videos of Burrow have me spooked. Pass.
I just cant do it with the Packers w Willis even though I do feel its the right play. Probably could stomach it at 3.5 although i still decided no bet but not at 2.5.
I do like the Panthers and Texans plays. Chicago won a fluky game that was handed to them after producing no offense. I dont see that offense changing much in one week. Texans should be able to roll.
Panthers might be that bad, but there is no way the Chargers should be laying 5 or 6 on the road to anyone. I had the game at a flat 3.
Good luck sir
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