*** NFL Sunday Ticket *** Week 4

Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys

These teams couldn't have gone in opposite directions in terms of perception any more than they did this past weekend. However it's important to note who these teams faced. The Commanders lost ugly, but did so against the Eagles who are currently -1600 to make the playoffs, and +305 to win the NFC. In fact, the Eagles are the favorite to win the NFC at the moment by oddsmakers. We bet Philly -6 last weekend expecting they would handle Washington - they are a very elite team this year and a team we added a lot of futures on this season in the NFC (along with Green Bay). It's not all that bad losing to that type of team, even if the score was lopsided, as many teams will suffer the same when facing them. Just ask the Vikings two weeks ago.

The Cowboys on the other hand, beat the NY Giants. A team that was fortunate to be 2-0 heading into the weekend, and a team that is +250 to make the playoffs at the moment. Dallas is getting a ton of praise for beating a terrible team, but let's not forget they are still playing with a backup QB - behind a roster that got worse in the off-season. 

The Commanders were embarrassed this past Sunday letting their QB get sacked 9 times. Part of that was the offensive line being manhandled by the Eagles front, and the other part was Carson Wentz holding onto the ball too long because his receivers couldn't get separation. Well, the Eagles have two shut down corners Darius Slay and James Bradberry playing behind a ferocious front. The Cowboys starting cornerbacks are Trevon Diggs and Anthony Brown, who are currently ranked 70th and 95th in terms of cornerback play this season. I expect Ron Rivera to make adjustments this game with quicker passes which should work against a worse secondary, and improved play by an offensive line that will be extremely focused after letting their QB get smacked all game last Sunday. They will also be making a move at the center position to Nick Martin as they've shown confidence in him in practice lately and want to try and see if he's an upgrade over Wes Schweitzer who got destroyed last week. Martin is someone that played as Wentz center in college together so there should be familiarity already. 

This spread is an overreaction to recent events, and I'll happily jump on Washington in this game as I expect them to win straight up.

Sunday:

1. Commanders +3.5 -118 (6x) +150 (1x)
2. Commanders TT Over 19.5 -108 (1x)
3. Colts -3 -135 (5x)

Teaser:

1. Commanders +10 / Colts +3 -130 (4x)
   
   NFL YTD: 17-3 ATS +46.75 Units
   

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts

The Titans under 9 season wins was our biggest future bet this off-season for good reason. They had a very overrated 12-5 record last season, and got worse in the off-season trading away their #1 WR AJ Brown. Despite that, we took them +2.5 last week against the Raiders as it was a terrific spot for them off the 41-7 beatdown to the Bills. Coming into this week, I expect the Titans to revert to the norm of being an overrated team.

The Titans went 2-0 against the Colts a season ago, but it wasn't thanks to Derrick Henry. The Colts are dominant against the rush and held him to 181 yards on 56 carries in the two games, for a low 3.4 yards per carry. Through three weeks this season, they are #2 in rush defense DVOA. Instead it was AJ Brown going off in one game for 155 yards on 10 receptions and 1 TD that sealed the deal, and Carson Wentz imploding that cost them in the other.

I expect Indy's offense to look better this week as they go from facing the Chiefs who are 2nd in QB pressure rate, to facing a Titans team who is 14th. For a slow and immobile QB like Matt Ryan, that is a big difference. I don't expect Ryan to get sacked 5 times and get hit 10 times again like last weekend. The Colts also get their top linebacker Shaq Leonard back just in time who will be making his season debut. I look for a comfortable win by Indy in this one.

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Rare LC sighting. Now we just need Mr. Bator to come out.

Waddup Ballin

@LeagueCapper

Nice to see you LC! 

BOL 

Hey, LC. Good to see you back. 17-3 is pretty darn hot. Any way you can document this?

Thanks CC, likewise

All my plays and writeups are documented, can find them quite easily

@BallingLikeNE

 What about PHIXER!!   :)

GL everyone

Stay hot LC  

Welcome back!

That's rare my guy. Best run I had about 5 years ago was 30-5. Never will replicate that again, but wow man. 

Thanks for the thoughts and plays. I'm leaving both games alone personally. 

Good Luck 

Good to see you back LC...

One of the best on here! 

@Stex84

LC, Mr. Bator, Phixer, 714Cuzzin, Beginner Boy, Scalabrine and all the other OGs that made this  forum worth visiting. 

@LeagueCapper

Thanks for insight, and a great 

record also 

@Awesompossum

 clown