Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
These teams couldn't have gone in opposite directions in terms of perception any more than they did this past weekend. However it's important to note who these teams faced. The Commanders lost ugly, but did so against the Eagles who are currently -1600 to make the playoffs, and +305 to win the NFC. In fact, the Eagles are the favorite to win the NFC at the moment by oddsmakers. We bet Philly -6 last weekend expecting they would handle Washington - they are a very elite team this year and a team we added a lot of futures on this season in the NFC (along with Green Bay). It's not all that bad losing to that type of team, even if the score was lopsided, as many teams will suffer the same when facing them. Just ask the Vikings two weeks ago.
The Cowboys on the other hand, beat the NY Giants. A team that was fortunate to be 2-0 heading into the weekend, and a team that is +250 to make the playoffs at the moment. Dallas is getting a ton of praise for beating a terrible team, but let's not forget they are still playing with a backup QB - behind a roster that got worse in the off-season.
The Commanders were embarrassed this past Sunday letting their QB get sacked 9 times. Part of that was the offensive line being manhandled by the Eagles front, and the other part was Carson Wentz holding onto the ball too long because his receivers couldn't get separation. Well, the Eagles have two shut down corners Darius Slay and James Bradberry playing behind a ferocious front. The Cowboys starting cornerbacks are Trevon Diggs and Anthony Brown, who are currently ranked 70th and 95th in terms of cornerback play this season. I expect Ron Rivera to make adjustments this game with quicker passes which should work against a worse secondary, and improved play by an offensive line that will be extremely focused after letting their QB get smacked all game last Sunday. They will also be making a move at the center position to Nick Martin as they've shown confidence in him in practice lately and want to try and see if he's an upgrade over Wes Schweitzer who got destroyed last week. Martin is someone that played as Wentz center in college together so there should be familiarity already.
This spread is an overreaction to recent events, and I'll happily jump on Washington in this game as I expect them to win straight up.
- Commanders +3.5 -118 (6x) +150 (1x)
- Commanders TT Over 19.5 -108 (1x)
- Colts -3 -135 (5x)
- Commanders +10 / Colts +3 -130 (4x)
NFL YTD: 17-3 ATS +46.75 Units