**** NFL Sunday Analysis ****

Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints

The Bears have a great defense and an even better run defense. I think its safe to say the Saints won't find much running room against Chicago's front 7. That seems alright though since the Saints have Drew Brees right? Unfortunately, he'll be without his top two wide receivers Colston and Lance Moore. The Bears had 5 sacks last week and should be able to continue the pressure against Brees and try and slow him down (a little). As you saw last week, the Saints couldn't muster up any pressure on Rodgers without stud defensive end Will Smith who will be out this game as well. Cutler took some sacks in week 1 and still came out with a 30-12 victory but he was going up against John Abraham and Ray Edwards two very good defensive linemen. The Saints have no solid pass-rusher and Cutler should have even more time in the pocket this week. Also we can all agree that the Saints run defense is sub-par. Forte should hit the 100-yard mark early in this game and I expect the Bears to control the clock with their running game versus Brees aerial attack. The Saints are coming off a huge emotional loss to the Packers opening night coming 1 yard away from a possible victory. I'm sure they still have that game in the back of their head and won't be 110% focused on this game like they'll need to be to cover a 7 point spread.
Pick: Bears +7

Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Redskins

Rex Grossman is coming off one of the best performances of his career. He went 21-34 for 305 yards two touchdowns and 0 picks. Mike Shanahan is known for sculpting average quarterbacks into solid QB's within his system. As you saw last week, the Cardinals have huge issues in their secondary and just surrendered the most passing yards ever to a rookie QB. Kevin Kolb's numbers are also a mirage, he piled up most his yardage on blown coverages by the Panthers. The Redskins have a much better defense and should create chaos for Kolb. The Cardinals are 1-5 (L6) when traveling to the east coast for a 1 PM game. I expect a very comfortable victory for the Skins.
Pick: Skins -4

Green Bay Packers @ Carolina Panthers

This is a sandwich game if i've ever seen one. Packers played the Saints hard and came out with an exhilarating victory in their post SB opener against the Saints. In week 3 they go to soldier field to face divisional rivals the Chicago Bears who will be out for blood after being eliminated from the playoffs by the packers last year. The Panthers are looking much better with a huge upgrade at the QB position and a fired up Steve Smith who is thrilled to have a QB with a huge arm again. Who here is willing to say the packers will get up to play the lowly panthers and lay -10 on the road when they'll be looking ahead to next week's game against the Bears? Pfffft....
Lean: Panthers (Although the Panthers D blew 1 too many coverages against the Cardinals last week for me to like them enough for a play)

Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts

The Browns just lost to the Bengals due to the fact that Hillis couldn't find any running room making it extremely hard for Colt McCoy to get into any kind of rhythm with 3rd and long situations every possession. Fortunately for the Browns the Colts have a sub-par run defense which should make things easier on McCoy. One thing I like about the Colts in this game is they are a veteran team that just got blown out by a divisional rival. The score is not indicative of how the game played out either. Collins was responsible for turnovers very early in the game that led the Texans to a fast 17-0 beginning that basically ended the game before it started. I like the colts getting points at home against a young QB in McCoy.
Pick: Colts +3

Rest to come later with official picks.

@ Browns&Colts

Call it a hunch but Browns will be able to run on the Colts run D. I think the Colts players are not throwing in the towel yet but they know this is not the same Colts team without PM.

@ Zona&Skins

There are alot of ppl that think Kolb is not the answer when Zona signed him. I know this by reading the forums. Kolb put up solid #s and he wasn't tested. Zona offense is solid IMHO, I just question their secondary. This should be a FG game at best. Gun to my head, I will bite on Zona +4. I don't trust Grossman but I think Kolb will be alright with Fitz catching the ball. Skins have a good D but Kolb filled in for Vick LY when he was hurt in the matchup. The familarity will provide a confident boost going into Skins stadium imho.

 

BOL......

i like the plays except for GB @ Car..

i can see GB looking ahead to wk 3.. and i can see smith/newton playing well at home..

but its still hard to put u money with the cats vs the most explosive offense in NFL

no play for me or i might tease GB with Pit or NYJ.

NO plays well at home but -6.5 seems high for a game vs da Bears.

Ari never played well on east coast early games.

and this is a good spot for the colts (@ home against clev).

BOL

Your giving me 2nd thoughts on my small play on the Cards, hmm.....on the opposite side of your Colts, good luck either way...................

Capper-Good write-up. I love the Washington pick.

Here is my theory on the NO/Chic. game. All GOOD teams do not lose the first 2 games of the season. Look at last year. Atl., Indy., Jets, Phila. and SD lost the first game of the season last year and won the second. They know how to adjust. Thus I like NO, Atl., and Indy.

Good luck to all

You'll go broke with this kind of thinking. Anything can happen in the NFL and as you can see I have the bears +7 not bears ML.

LIKE THE WRITE UP,,,HAVE SKINS IN A PARLAY WITH RAIDERS,

BOL THIS WK

GL. Whats your reasons for picking Oakland? I saw them play very sloppy on monday with tons of penalties. Denver played awful and still had a chance to win their in the end. Also oakland on a short week.

I would have considered the Panthers before Beason got hurt. You can't count on that defense to stop the Pack even a single time. As soon as he got injured, AZ walked all over them. They have almost not shot of stopping an offense like GB.

With you on Bears, against you on Skins. BOL

Like em all except Panthers...Rodgers always looks focused no matter who he is going to play in the following weeks. A sub par performance may be enough to cover. Newton hasn't faced a defense or blitz scheme like the packers yet...will be a good test.

Love the write ups League

Being in the Bay Area myself, I watched the entire MNF game vs Denver as well and I agree. Last MNF was a big game for the Raiders. Divisional game winning streak on the line(and if nothing else... a heated divisional game AT Denver. Raiders play better on the road in thier division), First game for new HC, national stage on MNF as well.

In this next game at Buffalo I can easily see the Raiders having a letdown. Add to that McFadden hurt his shoulder and a few WR's got banged up as well, Boss(TE) coming off injury, 1pm East Coast start for West coast team also.

Raiders pass defense is weaker this season and Bills look like they will be throwing the ball more this season.

And, as you mentioned, it's a short week for Oakland.

Yep... I can see the Bills (who play tougher at home) pulling out this one by a TD or at least 4 points.

Good Luck on all your plays LC.

GL as well. Will post rest of analysis tomorrow.

With you on Panthers and Colts. Best of Luck League.

San Diego Chargers @ New England Patriots

Did anyone see rookie Nate Solder pancake Cameron Wake? Boy was that awesome to watch. The Patriots are slim at the offensive line position this week with the injury to Dan Connolly but as long as noone else goes down, Brady should have all the time in the world to pick apart SD's defense. SD has a much better defense than the dolphins but it doesn't look like anyone will slow down Tom Brady this year without a monstrous pass rush which SD definitely lacks now that their stud defensive lineman is out. As for the patriots defense, they still have some kinks to work out. They are trying to move to a more 4-3 approach because of their offseason additions but Belichick said it could take a few weeks for it to all mold together. If Henne can throw for 400+ yards, then im sure as hell Philip Rivers will be able to as well. Rivers is much better in the redzone than Henne and with a stellar defense I think they can at-least make this game close. Philip Rivers is 12-4 ATS as an underdog in his career. San diego's spread was moved up due to public's overreaction to Brady's 500+ yards. SD shouldn't be laying 7 to anyone.
Pick: Chargers +7

Cincinatti Bengals @ Denver Broncos

The Bengals have a very underrated defense to this point. They held Peyton Hillis to just 57 yards and 3.4 YPC last week. I expect them to totally shutdown Denver's running game. You know what that means... third and long situations for an unwanted QB Kyle Orton. This guy sucks and after last week's chanting for Tebow, his confidence has to be at an all time low. While the Bengals will shutdown the Broncos' running game, the same cant be said about the Bengals who have a very good offensive line which will open up tons of running room for Cedric Benson against Denver's sub-par front. One surprising stat for an average HC in Marvin Lewis: Marvin Lewis is 9-4 against the spread in the second of his back-to-back road games. I believe the wrong team is favored in this one.
Pick: Bengals +4

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans

90% on the spread and 91% on the Ravens ML. I couldn't disagree more. While this lean could be bias I have to lean on the Titans. Two years ago in the playoffs the Ravens won a controversial game after time expired on the clock. The Ravens got a lucky win they shouldn't have. The Ravens also sprained Chris Johnson's ankle after bending him over backwards in an attempt to slow him down. Very dirty play might I add. I don't think these two teams have played since and I see a huge revenge factor favoring Chris Johnson and the Titans in this one. The Titans were eliminated from the playoffs that game when they clearly should have won the game. I expect the Titans to come out with 110% effort in this one and a lot of unhappy Ravens backers after this one.
Pick: Titans +6

to you as well.

Spot on!! Always enjoy reading your breakdowns.  I'm already on Wash, Buff, SD, Det, and Indy.  Leaning Philly in the night game, GL

Man, I don't know how many game winners you will actually pick but..............you sure do write pretty.

[Quote: Originally Posted by luckyly]

LIKE THE WRITE UP,,,HAVE SKINS IN A PARLAY WITH RAIDERS,

BOL THIS WK

DONT LKE TEAMS THAT SCORE OVER 40 PTS..I THINK THE BETTER DEFENCE WINS HERE,,

Not sure how a game two years ago has any relevance on today's game. The TN offense is based on two players. Hasselbeck is immobile so there will be a lot of pressure on him. If TN cannot get the run started early, it will be a long day for them. Also, CJ even stated in an interview earlier this week that the hit that removed him from that game was clean. Ravens superior in almost every aspect. I like the UNDER more than a side.