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NFL Sunday - Time Change Edition....

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Legend
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Posted: #26

Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:

Quick question    Do you have a reason or method between a 3.5 unit bet vs a 2.5 unit vs a 1.75 unit etc etc  A system?  Or a gut feeling?  Value?  What fuels the small differences in your wager sizes?

Staking for me is 80% system driven.  Lots of factors like projected margin of victory and standard deviations.  The other 20% is my eyes.

peace_5

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
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Posted: #27

Quote Originally Posted by smellybunty:

-2.75?

Half on cheap -3, half on expensive -2.5.  Averages to 2.75.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
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Posted: #28

Dam, I was thinking Boys, gonna need to take a second look.

Fine season you're having.an_cheers

 
Captain
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Posted: #29

Damn VAN, I'm opposite of Philly and Houston an_speechless, I do have Colts 1st half though.

Dak and the Cowboys really really need this one and I'm betting ML they get it bigsmile 

GL an_cheers

"At 50, everyone has the face they deserve" -George Orwell
 
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Posted: #30

@vanzack

 What's your reasoning with the Saints Van? The history of the Saints when they are a big favorite,it doesn't turn out good..They are a good underdog team..I know the Bears are bad  bur are the Saints really tht better?

 
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Posted: #31

Van, surprised to see the pick on the Rams.

Does this suggest you trust a ( most likely) backup QB for the Rams to carve out the GB defense  ?   Seems to me a huge wildcard.  Interested to hear your thoughts.. 

 
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Posted: #32

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Quote Originally Posted by brn2loslive2win: @vanzack    Hey van. I know you’ve talked a lot about trying to isolate games where you think the spread won’t be a factor. So I’m curious as to why Philly is your play of the day? I like them as well but I’m surprised to see it’s at the top of your list today. What is the average margin of victory in your sims? 9.5 with a low SD Good number

wow! Can’t wait to see how it plays out. Fly eagles fly! peace_5

 
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Posted: #33

@vanzack

 peace_5

 
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Posted: #34

GL today Van...I love the Birds today...the only thing I don't like is Lamb in the slot and the eagles are weak there. But nothing is perfect the eagles have the better team overall with both Lines probably the leagues best...

 
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Posted: #35

@vanzack

 Good Luck looking a bit rough although still early in the morning.

@glyde69

 Very good questions, curious myself. I remember seeing somewhere he do not play anything he believes is a one score game or close game, and he makes no action wagers. Would love to catch why the unit size differences.

Be Honest, Keep a Clean record, and lets make some MONEY!
 
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Posted: #36

@Rush51

 Was thinking this myself, the Rams are equally bad, Love got to be better than whoever is starting for the rams.

@shortdog32

 Bears are bad, although such a big number to cover.

Will be fun to see how these plays out.

Be Honest, Keep a Clean record, and lets make some MONEY!
 
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Posted: #37

wow Vanz with a 0-4 start an_speechless

I do have to question your Saints play with such a big number, I saw that you hate giving up NFL BIG point spreads.

Pats are bad with Mac Jones.

I too thought Texans were a good team, but after losing in Carolina last week it made me chance my mind.

The Rams were a big head scratcher without their starting QB, they pretty much had zero chance to move the ball let alone score.

If we talk football I like Eagles at home but this spread is so fishy.

Colts and Pathers is tough mainly Colts are finding ways to lose and Pathers got it done last week.

Would love to hear some of your insights on a few of these playspeace_5

Be Honest, Keep a Clean record, and lets make some MONEY!
 
Captain
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Posted: #38

You’ve lost your MoJo bro. 

 
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Posted: #39

ouch on the Texans game Vanz!! an_speechless

Be Honest, Keep a Clean record, and lets make some MONEY!
 
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Posted: #40

@ActionMagnet

 Lot of head scratching plays if you follow Vanz weekly, taking a big spread isnt his style, you had the Browns with a stout D but he went with the NO Saints with bad coaching and while I haven't seen T bag last week playing the Chargers some say he played better than Herbert.

 

The Rams I would love to HEAR!! He said 20% is his eyes, I truly what made him feel like the Rams were a play today.

 

Pats with Mac Jones another one.

 

I truly felt like there were a bunch of better games to cap this week.

 

Hope he wins his last 2 for some damage control, never want to see an elite poster lose like this

Be Honest, Keep a Clean record, and lets make some MONEY!
 
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Posted: #41

Bounce back big dawg! Didn't mean to sound I am questioning your capping skills, more I am a big fan would want to pick your brain on a couple of selections today.

Be Honest, Keep a Clean record, and lets make some MONEY!
 
MVP
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Posts: 15818
Posted: #42

@Taipei-Tony

 Wow you just have all the answers AFTER the game don't you? Why don't you bless us with your clairvoyance BEFORE the games start? Better yet start posting plays and keep a record

 
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Posted: #43

@Bigdoubleplay

 I posted a couple of times, and always open for conversations, this dude is good, just want to pick his brain, that's all, nothing more!

Be Honest, Keep a Clean record, and lets make some MONEY!
 
Legend
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Posted: #44

Quote Originally Posted by ActionMagnet:

You’ve lost your MoJo bro.

And you never had any peace_5

 
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Posted: #45

Here come all the morons who have no money management discipline. 

All this man does is give consistent winners year after year. Losing weeks happen to the best. And guess what. He is consistently the best. 

Appreciate you sharing week after week. 

 

 
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Posted: #46

@vanzack

 

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Quote Originally Posted by smellybunty: -2.75? Half on cheap -3, half on expensive -2.5.  Averages to 2.75.

this was dead on the txn...

 
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Posted: #47

@Taipei-Tony

 Clown...

 
Legend
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Posted: #48

SNF

BENGALS -1.5 (3 units)

GL all

an_cheers

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #49

@vanzack

 You da Man Van….thanks always! 

The impossible only takes longer….
 
 
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Posted: #50

@vanzack

 I love that play...my man...lets get itpeace_5bigsmile

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