NFL season in review and some Super Bowl Ponderings

Overall I finished on the plus side of the ledger at 3.8 units, but it was an up and down year, capped off by a decent playoff run (5-3 ATS, +5.9 units). The highlight of the year was a ten unit winner on the Steelers +4 over the Ravens in the last game of the regular season (won outright, 26-24), but that was offset by a pair of five unit bad beats, both involving the Colts.

In Week 12 I had the Chiefs -3' over the Colts, but despite dominating in total yardage (494 to 255), first downs (33-10), total plays (91-50) and time of possession, the Chiefs sputtered in the red zone and committed two costly turnovers, in a 23-20 win in OT.

In Week 17 I was on Indy +5' over Jacksonville and lost when the Jags booted a 53 yard field goal with just 24 seconds left to win 23-17. Two losses, each by half a stinking point and a 21 unit swing! 

College football was my bread and butter this year, and combined with the NFL I'm up 22.5 units. Now we're down to one game left in the 2025 season. Super Bowl info and thoughts to follow.

Thanks Boise for your contributions this year.  I really enjoyed reading your opinions all season long.

@Cooler999

The current line is Seattle -4' and the total sits at 45'. According to my power ratings the Seahawks SHOULD be a one point favorite. Having said that, there's no question the 'Hawks have played the tougher schedule, going 8-2 SU and ATS against teams that finished with a winning record, including playoff games. By contrast, New England went 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS using the same criteria. 

The Seahawks have won nine straight games, including playoffs, led by a dominant defense. Sam Darnold is coming off his best performance in a couple of months, passing for 346 yards and three scores in the NFC Championship game. But in the ten games before that he threw just ten TD passes and was intercepted nine times! In fact, his 20 turnovers led the NFL this season! A key loss for Seattle is RB Zach Charbonnet who was injured against the 49ers, and Darnold has been dealing with an oblique issue.

New England has won 16 of their last 17, including playoffs, and in their last five games have allowed a grand total of 46 points! Drake Maye was the NFL's pass efficiency leader, posting an impressive 113.5 rating. His numbers weren't as good in three playoff wins against top notch defenses, and he was sacked five times in each game. The 15 sacks allowed during that three game stretch was the most in playoff history. The key with Maye is keeping him in the pocket. In the regular season and playoffs combined he's rushed for 591 yards at 4.65 yards a carry, and he iced the AFC championship game with a bootleg scramble. He has a banged up shoulder but should be good to go.

Here's where things get interesting. Super Bowl underdogs of THREE POINTS OR MORE are 16-32 SU and 23-23-2 ATS all time. In the first 28 Super Bowls the numbers were 7-18 SU and 9-16 ATS with three games having lines of less than three points. Then, enter free agency and the salary cap, the great NFL equalizer. Over the next seven years those underdogs were 1-6 SU and 2-3-2 ATS. 

It's over the last 24 years where you can really see how free agency and the salary cap have impacted the game. In those 24 Super Bowls, eight had a line of less than three points. In the other 16 games the dogs have barked to the tune of 8-8 SU and 12-4 ATS! That includes the Patriots overtime win over Atlanta in which the Falcons blew a 28-3 lead with some piss poor clock management. That game was instrumental in changing the overtime rules to ensure that each team got a possession, something the Falcons didn't get in that OT loss.

Breaking it down even further: SUPER BOWL UNDERDOGS OF FOUR POINTS OR MORE THIS CENTURY ARE 6-7 SU AND 11-2 ATS, INCLUDING SEVEN STRAIGHT COVERS! I haven't decided whether to bet this game or not, because I'm rooting for Seattle, but I'm definitely leaning dog here. If nothing else I may just play a four way teaser.

As always all opinions are welcome here. 

Out of 59 Super Bowls two ended in a push, betting wise. Of the other 57, 50 of the straight up winners also covered the spread. So whoever you go with ya might wanna sprinkle some on the money line. 

And forget what I posted regarding a 4 way teaser. Those seldom win. There's a reason they're called "TEASERS". I saw something a few years ago. Not sure exactly how it went, but it was something like this: "If you want to make a straight bet, Vegas welcomes you with open arms. If you wanna bet a parlay, they'll send a cab for you. If you wanna play a teaser, they'll send you a limo." 

I love teasers but the 13 point teasers not the 7 point those blow 

GL B8 

Any time you have a winning year regardless how small is a very good year Boise..............

Some interesting info . Yes I have seen similar  Posted on you tube in regards to all the dogs covering.

So I took a deeper look into it.

First, during this period we had an unusual period in terms of weak statistical  teams that got hot at the right time and made the SB and every one of these teams covered in the SB, except the Titans who pushed on the closing line but the line was +7.5 most of the week so easily possible to cover on that weak statistical  team.

I was in Vegas and backing the Rams, I waited a number of days to get the line down to 7 but then I found it at the Gold Coast -6.5 and bought it to -6.

We don't have that here in this year's game.

Of the remaining 9 teams were stronger statistical teams with a line of -4 or better.

Now get this Boise, using my SB line which is PR I  defense adjusted, giving additional  pts for the better defense.

My SB lines had a lean on 8 dogs of those remaining 9 statistical stronger teams with a line of -4 or better.

And some of those dogs the line was off by 14 pts and more, now get this. The dog not only covered but covered my line as well which was off by 14 pts and more to the books line.

Look, last year Eagles defense adjusted line was -12.57, Eagles were a +1.5 dog, line of by 14 pts. 

Ridiculous Boise how far many lines were off by, and Eagles covered by line winning by 18 pts.

Looky here, 2002 Bucs my SB line Bucs -15.31, Bucs were a +4 dog, line once again Ridiculous, off by 19 pts Boise.

Bucs covered my line winning by 27 proving once again my line was far superior to the books line.

2009 Saints my SB line , Saints -9.79, Saints +5, off again by over 14 pts, and as usual for this period Saints covered my line winning by 14.

Again proving how far off the books lines were during this period.

I can keep going, 2004 Eagles my SB lines. Eagles -1.15, Eagles +7 dog, line off by 8 pts.

Eagles did lose by 3 but got the cover. One of the rare games during this period that did not cover my line.

2017 Eagles my SB line -3.36 , Eagles a +5.5 dog. Off by over 8 pts, and Eagles covered my line, winning by 8.

Even games not -4 or better line 2013 Seahawks, my SB line Sea -12.5, Seahawks +1.5 off again by 14 pts. Seahawks roll by 35 pts covering my line easily .

As you can see these lines were so far off as many of these dogs should have been  the favorites and not a small favorite hence why the dogs did so well.

Do you think my SB line is on the Pats big ?

My SB line has a Lean on the Seahawks not Pats.

Alot more i could post on this period that all points to the Seahawks.

You can see why the dogs did so well. With the 4 weak statistical  teams making the SB with lines +4 or better.

So that makes 9 remaing dogs of +4 or better.

My SB line was on 8 of those 9 dogs, only favorite was 2015 Panthers.

I did not have all 8 dogs the favorite but many of them and by big amounts so all those dogs covering is somewhat deceptive.

It is not what it seems. Many of those dogs should of been the favorite but that is not the case with the Pats. They are a true dog. And a larger dog the the Vegas line but not by alot.

Since 1978 when my SB line has  a better then -2 favorite they are 25-10 SU. 

A -2 favorite or less is 3-7 SU.

Hence the 2004 Eagles -1.15 losing but still covering and the only team  did not cover my line.

Teams that win SU usually cover just like you stated Boise.

GL  either way always a class act @Boisestateand8 

@undermysac 

 @kidd22 

 @Fuse  

 @theclaw I've really enjoyed your threads this year Claw! Thanks for the historical breakdown. It's cool that we reach many of the same conclusions, albeit by different means.

 @Macwestie1  Mac, you're a class act! We MAY be on the same side in this game, if I decide to play it. Still pondering, but it seems like too many points. 

Best of luck guys in this last game of the football season! 

Ahhh, what the hell;

3* Patriots +4' over Seahawks - Gotta go with the disrespected dog here. I can't ignore the 11-2 ATS trend this decade of Super Bowl underdogs getting four or more points. My power ratings say Seattle -1. This game kinda reminds me a little bit of Super Bowl X. Dallas had the better QB with Staubach, but Pittsburgh was a little better on defense and in the run game. If the Pats offensive line doesn't get Drake Maye killed I think they can keep it close. Same score as SB X.  21-17, Seahawks. 

I don't do prop bets, but given the Patriots' pass protection issues (15 sacks allowed in three playoff games), DeMarcus Lawrence might be worth a look as Super Bowl MVP at +8000 on the money line. Another site has him at +10,000. 

3* Patriots +4' Seahawks were the better team by far. Drake Maye looked like a deer in the headlights at times. Congrats Seattle fans! See y'all next season.