Overall I finished on the plus side of the ledger at 3.8 units, but it was an up and down year, capped off by a decent playoff run (5-3 ATS, +5.9 units). The highlight of the year was a ten unit winner on the Steelers +4 over the Ravens in the last game of the regular season (won outright, 26-24), but that was offset by a pair of five unit bad beats, both involving the Colts.
In Week 12 I had the Chiefs -3' over the Colts, but despite dominating in total yardage (494 to 255), first downs (33-10), total plays (91-50) and time of possession, the Chiefs sputtered in the red zone and committed two costly turnovers, in a 23-20 win in OT.
In Week 17 I was on Indy +5' over Jacksonville and lost when the Jags booted a 53 yard field goal with just 24 seconds left to win 23-17. Two losses, each by half a stinking point and a 21 unit swing!
College football was my bread and butter this year, and combined with the NFL I'm up 22.5 units. Now we're down to one game left in the 2025 season. Super Bowl info and thoughts to follow.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Overall I finished on the plus side of the ledger at 3.8 units, but it was an up and down year, capped off by a decent playoff run (5-3 ATS, +5.9 units). The highlight of the year was a ten unit winner on the Steelers +4 over the Ravens in the last game of the regular season (won outright, 26-24), but that was offset by a pair of five unit bad beats, both involving the Colts.
In Week 12 I had the Chiefs -3' over the Colts, but despite dominating in total yardage (494 to 255), first downs (33-10), total plays (91-50) and time of possession, the Chiefs sputtered in the red zone and committed two costly turnovers, in a 23-20 win in OT.
In Week 17 I was on Indy +5' over Jacksonville and lost when the Jags booted a 53 yard field goal with just 24 seconds left to win 23-17. Two losses, each by half a stinking point and a 21 unit swing!
College football was my bread and butter this year, and combined with the NFL I'm up 22.5 units. Now we're down to one game left in the 2025 season. Super Bowl info and thoughts to follow.
The current line is Seattle -4' and the total sits at 45'. According to my power ratings the Seahawks SHOULD be a one point favorite. Having said that, there's no question the 'Hawks have played the tougher schedule, going 8-2 SU and ATS against teams that finished with a winning record, including playoff games. By contrast, New England went 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS using the same criteria.
The Seahawks have won nine straight games, including playoffs, led by a dominant defense. Sam Darnold is coming off his best performance in a couple of months, passing for 346 yards and three scores in the NFC Championship game. But in the ten games before that he threw just ten TD passes and was intercepted nine times! In fact, his 20 turnovers led the NFL this season! A key loss for Seattle is RB Zach Charbonnet who was injured against the 49ers, and Darnold has been dealing with an oblique issue.
New England has won 16 of their last 17, including playoffs, and in their last five games have allowed a grand total of 46 points! Drake Maye was the NFL's pass efficiency leader, posting an impressive 113.5 rating. His numbers weren't as good in three playoff wins against top notch defenses, and he was sacked five times in each game. The 15 sacks allowed during that three game stretch was the most in playoff history. The key with Maye is keeping him in the pocket. In the regular season and playoffs combined he's rushed for 591 yards at 4.65 yards a carry, and he iced the AFC championship game with a bootleg scramble. He has a banged up shoulder but should be good to go.
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The current line is Seattle -4' and the total sits at 45'. According to my power ratings the Seahawks SHOULD be a one point favorite. Having said that, there's no question the 'Hawks have played the tougher schedule, going 8-2 SU and ATS against teams that finished with a winning record, including playoff games. By contrast, New England went 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS using the same criteria.
The Seahawks have won nine straight games, including playoffs, led by a dominant defense. Sam Darnold is coming off his best performance in a couple of months, passing for 346 yards and three scores in the NFC Championship game. But in the ten games before that he threw just ten TD passes and was intercepted nine times! In fact, his 20 turnovers led the NFL this season! A key loss for Seattle is RB Zach Charbonnet who was injured against the 49ers, and Darnold has been dealing with an oblique issue.
New England has won 16 of their last 17, including playoffs, and in their last five games have allowed a grand total of 46 points! Drake Maye was the NFL's pass efficiency leader, posting an impressive 113.5 rating. His numbers weren't as good in three playoff wins against top notch defenses, and he was sacked five times in each game. The 15 sacks allowed during that three game stretch was the most in playoff history. The key with Maye is keeping him in the pocket. In the regular season and playoffs combined he's rushed for 591 yards at 4.65 yards a carry, and he iced the AFC championship game with a bootleg scramble. He has a banged up shoulder but should be good to go.
Here's where things get interesting. Super Bowl underdogs of THREE POINTS OR MORE are 16-32 SU and 23-23-2 ATS all time. In the first 28 Super Bowls the numbers were 7-18 SU and 9-16 ATS with three games having lines of less than three points. Then, enter free agency and the salary cap, the great NFL equalizer. Over the next seven years those underdogs were 1-6 SU and 2-3-2 ATS.
It's over the last 24 years where you can really see how free agency and the salary cap have impacted the game. In those 24 Super Bowls, eight had a line of less than three points. In the other 16 games the dogs have barked to the tune of 8-8 SU and 12-4 ATS! That includes the Patriots overtime win over Atlanta in which the Falcons blew a 28-3 lead with some piss poor clock management. That game was instrumental in changing the overtime rules to ensure that each team got a possession, something the Falcons didn't get in that OT loss.
Breaking it down even further: SUPER BOWL UNDERDOGS OF FOUR POINTS OR MORE THIS CENTURY ARE 6-7 SU AND 11-2 ATS, INCLUDING SEVEN STRAIGHT COVERS! I haven't decided whether to bet this game or not, because I'm rooting for Seattle, but I'm definitely leaning dog here. If nothing else I may just play a four way teaser.
As always all opinions are welcome here.
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Here's where things get interesting. Super Bowl underdogs of THREE POINTS OR MORE are 16-32 SU and 23-23-2 ATS all time. In the first 28 Super Bowls the numbers were 7-18 SU and 9-16 ATS with three games having lines of less than three points. Then, enter free agency and the salary cap, the great NFL equalizer. Over the next seven years those underdogs were 1-6 SU and 2-3-2 ATS.
It's over the last 24 years where you can really see how free agency and the salary cap have impacted the game. In those 24 Super Bowls, eight had a line of less than three points. In the other 16 games the dogs have barked to the tune of 8-8 SU and 12-4 ATS! That includes the Patriots overtime win over Atlanta in which the Falcons blew a 28-3 lead with some piss poor clock management. That game was instrumental in changing the overtime rules to ensure that each team got a possession, something the Falcons didn't get in that OT loss.
Breaking it down even further: SUPER BOWL UNDERDOGS OF FOUR POINTS OR MORE THIS CENTURY ARE 6-7 SU AND 11-2 ATS, INCLUDING SEVEN STRAIGHT COVERS! I haven't decided whether to bet this game or not, because I'm rooting for Seattle, but I'm definitely leaning dog here. If nothing else I may just play a four way teaser.
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