@MRxKrazz
Well written post. Gotta give you credit where credit is due.
I'm going to be straight with you because I feel like you put time into that and are being straight with me....
I've been doing this at covers in one way or another for about 25 years. Before the last 5 years or so, there were lots of things we take for granted now that were arguments on covers. We used to debate things like key numbers, is juice important, martingale systems, just elementary shit. And now the sports gambling population has a certain base education that it didn't have before.
I mentioned that because it's an example of the evolution, or the learning, that has greatly benefited me personally and one of the reasons I still post here. I have learned so much from being on covers. It's almost sad to me what the site has become, because it wasn't ever like this. It wasn't a pick or handicapping based site, there was a lot of theory and sometimes stupid discussions about everything having to do with sports betting. At some point covers decided to take a turn and dedicate itself towards more handicapping.
So today's version of covers really doesn't fit what I can do a good job of providing. I think I'd be a great teacher of gambling studies, but it's hard to make a write-up that is true and not just a narrative of 100 plus plays a year in the NFL. It's just not what I do well, partly because I don't believe there is value in it... Because if my model says the ram should be a four-point favorite over the dolphins and therefore a 2 and 1/2 point spread means a three-unit play, reduced by a half unit because of my current form, That's not typically what people want to hear around here.
But that's the truth. The Rams in my model were 4 Tonight, The dolphins have a lot of negative indicators in this game mainly on the defensive side, and therefore it's a two and a half point play.
I have about 60,000 posts here over the years, and I would say 55,000 of them were before 3 or 4 years ago. I don't get the enjoyment I used to get in debating the intricacies of the week to week NFL, because most people here bet differently than I do. There have been a very select few that have engaged me on the things that I have brought up that I do. Things like modeling, statistics, traction reports, adjusted stats, things like that. That's boring stuff.
So yeah, the old vanzack would write up long narratives supporting my position, but it became a situation where the more talented debater would win those discussions rather than the content of what was written. I don't like that, and I don't think it's productive, and I think write-ups often detract from better results because they are so enticing.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
That’s Great! Wish I did that! I still don’t understand it and the cows out of the barn now!
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