MVP

@brn2loslive2win

 The best way I heard it put was by Nick Wright.  He said, like I have before, one bad game late in the season should not take away from all of the good games just because it came at the end of the season.

He said, for example, if you just shuffled up all of the games and presented them in a random order that Stafford would easily come out on top.

I think that is a good way to look at it.

But it is hard as a human to not have a bit of recency bias.

@Raiders22

 I’m not sure how other books handle it but the retail books offer live in game wagers on all of the awards markets. And yes, one touchdown or interception sways the market drastically!! Wild stuff.

@Raiders22

 Yup I’ve heard Nick Wright’s argument on this exact point and it’s a good one. Again it’s insane to me that the books move the odds on this stuff knowing that the ultimate outcome is decided by the entire body of work. And even though the voters certainly will have some recency bias, a lot of them are intelligent people. They know that they can’t just base the award on the Rams/Falcons game for example. 

As Paul Howard says on Follow the Money, you have to handicap the voters in order to win in the awards market. Their are voters that have, while not revealing their choice, publicly made comments about the way they see the award being won.

@brn2loslive2win

 I agree.  But for sure if Stafford had had a mediocre or bad game yesterday he would not win it.

@Raiders22

 The thing is that Stafford didn’t really do anything that special yesterday. The stats were great with 4 TDs and 0 turnovers, but in reality he did exactly what was expected against the Cardinals. And Maye did exactly what he was expected against the Dolphins with less impressive overall stats. In any event the fact that Stafford was around +250/+275 before kickoff and now sits at -150 is just incredible. I guess the stats really do matter. And if that’s the case it’s Stafford in a landslide.

Yes.  I wonder how the odds jumped after each TD he threw yesterday.

But it all shook out when he hit the numbers that only Rodgers and Brady had.  And he did it at 42.

Very, very solid year.

@Raiders22

 Here’s an interesting question- does Stafford still become the favorite with only 3 TDS? How bout 5 TDS and an interception?

@Raiders22

 The age is one of the most underrated parts if you ask me. If you’re out there slinging it like that and playing for a superbowl with grey hairs on your head there’s something to be said for that. It also contributes to the conversation about Mayes rushing stats. Of course he’s got more, he’s 14 years younger.

@brn2loslive2win

 Sorry, Lisa Su just came out to give her speech and I had to pay very, very , very close attention!

When she came out wearing her blue jacket I knew my day was made!!

@brn2loslive2win

Yes, that is what I was asking -- if you knew what odds were after 1st and 2nd TD.

I think with 4/1 or 5/1 he still wins.  As long as they won the game and he did not throw more than 9 in a season.

Yes. It is a quasi-career award maybe as I said above.  They 'feel' Maye will have more chances.  Sadly, that is not always the case with young guys.

@Raiders22

 Believe it or not after the second td he was still a big dog. Maye was still a -350 favorite. After the third td it was better but surprisingly not by much with Maye still a significant favorite. It was similar in the timeline to when Maye threw his only TD of the day. Once Stafford threw the 4th TD the odds went wild (as did I. Another 1 yarder lmao!!) At that point it shifted to around -115 for Stafford and has gotten higher and higher since. 

I have one wager at +275 for $1,000. When Stafford had 2 TDS and Maye 1, they were offering me a cashout for $800. Since the game has ended one of the books I use will pay me over $2,000 to cash out that bet right this second.

@brn2loslive2win

 Cool.  I feel I got a good number then.  I have +250.

@Raiders22

 +250 is awesome 

@brn2loslive2win

I THINK MAYE WILL WIN IT. STAFFORD HAD A GOOD TEAM TO START WITH MAYE DIDNT.REMEMBER WHAT MVP MEANS WITHOUT STAFFORD AND A LEGIT GOOD QB LAR WOULD STILL BE IN THE PLAYOFFS. PATS WOULN NOT BE IN PLAYOFFS WITHOUT MAYE.ON A SIDE NOTE HOW DID THEY LOSE TO VEGAS.

@usarmy69-71

 I am not so sure that is correct about NE not making the playoffs without Maye.  They would have to have a QB that would lose 4 more games with that easy schedule.  That would have to be an awful QB by that reasoning.  

I know people say it is supposed to be the MVP on a team; others say it should be the MVP of the league.  Still others say it should be called “MVPOTTWTBR” - Most Valuable Player on the Team With the Best Record.

But you cannot really compare and contrast which guy would do better on the other's team or how each team would do with another random QB.  Each team may have different systems and supporting casts that a team builds all around a particular QB.

The situation this year is a bit unique.  The best QB, when he is healthy, that would likely fit well enough in both systems is Burrow.

It is very hard to think Burrow would exceed the numbers Stafford put up this year on that team.  But it is very easy to see him putting up better numbers than Maye did on that team.

So, I think it has to be more than just who won the most.  That is why Nix and Darnold were not considered strong candidates.  Lawrence only started playing well midway through the season.

It should be a combination of several things, W/L record, SoS, numbers put up etc.

It should not simply go to the best 'game manager' if a team has a great defense and other good supporting casts.

Nix at least had some great comebacks.  But you can argue why did he keep falling behind.

If the mvp really was the most valuable player to a team I don’t think it’s Stafford or Maye. With the team that the rams have I believe they could have the same record with multiple different quarterbacks. 

How many wins would buffalo have if not for Josh Allen? 4? 5? 

What would the 49ers season have been like if you replaced CMC with the average rb? 

The NFL MVP award is a joke and it has been for years. It’s basically the best quarterback award unless another player does something historical. When you consider all of the variables, Stafford was the best quarterback this season.

@brn2loslive2win

 People have made that argument as well.  I get it.  
This year Allen is not playing like he has.  Maybe the injuries are affecting him.  
But do you really think with their schedule Trubisky is only winning 4 or 5 games. 
 
But I get that certain players make their offense really click. 

@brn2loslive2win

I have a rant about McCaffrey.

I think McCaffrey is a good bit overrated as a RB.

He is the type of player that will help you kill a team when you are winning.  But I do not think he can really carry a team, at least now.

So, I could not see him as a league MVP.

I sort of wonder how much better their running game would be with Robinson instead of CMC.

He averaged 3.9 Y/A and 2.6 YAC/att.

Robinson 4.3 and 3.0.

BT+MT/A for CMC was 12.2% for Robinson it was 22.8%.

PE/Play for CMC was -.053 for Robinson it was .113.

WAR CMC was -.5  Robinson .3

I think the team is using him like they think he is as effective as he has been in the past, plus all of the money they paid him.

That is why the 49ers have such an awful rushing attack.

They actually had a negative PE/Play of -.03. Only the Browns and Raiders were worse.

They are one of the very few teams that have to SET the run up with the pass.

He does have great hands and is good as a safety valve for Purdy.

Very, very, very few RBs should ever have a ball thrown to them.  He is one that should.

I think if they lose in the playoffs it is because they are ‘forcing’ CMC to be too much of the offense.

So, no, I do not think he should be considered as an MVP.

He is fun to watch and maybe they can make it work with him in the playoffs more effectively than they did in the regular season.  Because in the playoffs a team is more apt to NEED a running game to carry the offense or set up the pass.

That is my rant. 

@Raiders22

 When CMC was with the Panthers he was unstoppable, in his prime. 

At 29 years old now, his tread is a bit lower for sure.

Also, there are games where it feels like Shanahan almost tried to run him into the infirmary. 25+ touches where he took shot after shot.

I still remember the game where his dad broke his leg vs the Giants on MNF. Frigin gruesome 

@undermysac

 He has been good in SF.  Just not as good this year.  
You are right about running him into the ground. That was my point about their use of him. 

I do not recall his dad breaking his leg.  
I remember Theisman breaking his.  

But by far the worst was Napoleon MacCallum.  

I remember his dad taking a huge hit once across the middle.  But do not remember the leg break.  
Ugh!  Those are always awful. 

@Raiders22

 With Trubisky at qb I don’t see more than 5 wins for Buffalo. That’s hypothetically 7 more wins because of one player. Just my opinion of course.

Although advanced stats might not think CMC has that much impact, he’s got over 2100 scrimmage yards on the season. The only player better is Bijan if I’m not mistaken. So there you go. Great case for Bijan to be the most valuable player to his team. 

Again I just think the award is silly at this point. There’s a case to be made for many players yet it’s been a two horse race for a good part of the season. Phenomenal opportunity to make money though if you pay very close attention.

@Raiders22

 Sorry. I just realized what I wrote and of course didn’t account for the fact that trubisky won them the week 18 game. Just trying to make a point anyway.

@brn2loslive2win

 Got it.  
Just the impact he has is overrated to me. 
Sure, they use him a LOT and in various ways.  So he will get numbers.  I am simply pointing out they are not effective numbers.  I think several RBs of used the exact same way in that offense would have much better numbers.  

But you are right that he is very valuable to them. 
I agree with Bijan also. 
Didn’t he have the most percentage of his team’s offense this year.