MRxKRAZZ NFL week #1

Your Dallas lean is stupid, and I'll say so every day until September. Name one rational area in which Dallas is worse other than Running Back. 

Great to see you, Krazz. Those two months gonna be way too long.

Regarding the Cowboys, I have to side with porcelainfist here. Many people are underestimating them, but in fact they will be a better team than they were in 2014. They will have a much improved defense and their offense is gonna be rolling. It doesn't matter if Murray or Randle/DMC are running behind the best offensive line in the league.

Looking forward to some nice discussions

I agree with your NY Giants lean. 

Hey theclaw. I don't really understand the logic behind your intention. I would gladly get to know the math behind that regression model. Is it historic correlation between margin & win percentage?

Not considering overtime, they had the 5th-best true margin (off. ppg - def. ppg). The other four teams were GB, NE, SEA & DEN. There wasn't a huge difference between the Cowboys and the Patriots (0.9). Each of those five teams finished 12-4.

The only winning game they should have lost was at St. Louis. That would have made them a 11-5 team instead of 12-4. Their defense was really bad and everyone knows that. Despite their bad defense, they went 12-4 or atleast would have went 11-5.

Now they improved their defense significantly and upgraded the already-best offensive line in the league with La'el Collins and you say they will regress because they had 1.4 wins more than they should in 2014? That doesn't make any sense.

Regarding the game against the Giants, the Cowboys will literally dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides. I don't know the recent update of JPP, but I think there is a huge probability he won't play in week 1, so just tell me how the Giants want to get pressure on Tony Romo? He will have a field day. And the pass rush of Dallas - even without Hardy - should be enough to cause problems for Eli Manning who will have a worse offensive line than last year with Ereck Flowers starting at LT.

"Name one area where DAL improved?"


First off, this is going to be a very nice thread with some quality discussions

Offensive line: La'el Collins, a guy who would have been a top-15 pick without the witness interview, and he isn't even a starter. Chaz Green from Florida adds some depth as well. How are the Giants gonna get pressure on Romo? I don't believe JPP will be ready in week one.

CB: Remember, it will be the first year the number six pick of the 2012 draft, Morris Claiborne, will start the season with a full training camp and without an injury (if nothing happens until September). The Cowboys should feel like getting a new guy, a starter. Byron Jones shouldn't have been a first rounder IMO, but due to his freakish athleticism, he brings a new dimension into nickle packages and the CB depth. After pre-season we will know more about his game on the field.

DE: Jeremy Mincey played very good down the stretch in 2014 and the Cowboys just added Randy Gregory and Greg Hardy who will be missing four games. Starting in week 5, the Cowboys will have a very very dangerous front-seven with a DE-rotation of Mincey, Hardy & Gregory. Mincey and Hardy should bring enough pressure from the edges to cause troubles at the soft NYG offensive line. Ereck Flowers will start LT for the injured Beatty, and will have a matchup against Randy Gregory. Gregory already won that matchup in 2014, when Nebraska played Miami.

LB: McClain is suspended, but with the return of Sean Lee, their LB position will be improved come week five.



Sorry for double-post, but sometimes this quote-option gets stupid.

My initial take to this game is that the Giants can cover at +6, even more so at +7.  The Giants are on double revenge heading into McAdoo's second year.  The Giant's offense should be more comfortable running McAdoo's west coast shotgun no-huddle offensive system.  Giants have a o-line that is being re-shuffled because of the big loss at left-tackle, William Beatty, but it's not that much of a disadvantage.  The routes the receivers run are short to intermediate, giving Eli enough time to pass before the rush even gets to him.   I still haven't looked deeper into the fundamentals of NYG/DAL match-up, but that's just my initial take. 

Like the giants lean, in a division rivalry game 5.5 is too much to give.  The over is the best bet in that game though.

nyg dal games usually have high totals. could be a shootout

The only game that could have been lost that was won was the game against the Giants, a game in which Romo stood pat waiting for 8 seconds. I think the big thing you have to ask yourself is, where did the Giants improve?

also, the Texans game, forgot about that. That's one where they had to go to overtime to put up 20 or they would have fallen curse to their 17 or under curse.

Let me add something: if we take away the Redskins and Cardinals games in which Tony Romo was hurt (Redskins) or didn't play (Cardinals), the Cowboys scored 17 points or less against SF, HOU & PHI. Against Detroit in the playoffs, it was also a typical 17-point game if the Cowboys wouldn't have converted some fourth downs during the comeback. What did all four teams have in common at the time of the games? A very good pass rush. In those four games, Tony Romo was sacked 14 times for a loss of 110 yards. Can the Giants pass rush without JPP cause so much trouble against that Cowboys o-line? I don't think so.

Quote Originally Posted by porcelainfist:

The only game that could have been lost that was won was the game against the Giants, a game in which Romo stood pat waiting for 8 seconds. I think the big thing you have to ask yourself is, where did the Giants improve?

They lost their left tackle on an already shaky offensive line. You say that the West Coast offense NEGATES the loss of a Left Tackle? That's simply not true. 

If you think their first round pick Erick Flowers is going to fill the void, good luck with that, he was beat like a rented mule last year by none other than Cowboys first year DE Randy Gregory. 

You probably think I'm some Dallas homer, but that is certainly not the case. You can see my leans for every game's over under and spread here:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=102123238

I think you'll find that my film studies of every team show how dedicated I am to researching these players. 

Anyways, it doesn't matter because in my personal life I'm staying away from a 6 point spread. I will be betting the over and betting it huge. But I'm telling you guys, it is not the Cowboys offense that I am worried about blowing my bet for me and not putting up points, it is the Cowboys defense being much better than last year that makes me worry about my bet. I can see myself being heartbroken that the game ends something like 31-17 and I'm left holding the bag. 

How about this for a Dallas Cowboys stat... did you know that in the regular season, they were held to 17 or less points in EVERY loss?

And saying that Sean Lee being in the lineup is a negative is... well... absolutely out of left field. 

"In a West Coast no huddle, uptempo Shotgun offense with short to intermediate throws, Eli doesn't need time for his receivers to go vertical since that's not what the routes require from his receivers.  The routes are short and horizontal utilizing the quickness from ODB & Cruz.  If this offense required time for Eli so his receivers go vertical, then I would strongly agree a solid left-tackle and o-line would be highly beneficial.  "   Agreed, plus the addition Shane Vereen for quick screens will help as well.  The Giants coaches know the line is suspect and they will work around that,  Teams can still win by finding a way to work around their weak areas.   All the experts say the giants o-line is horrible they won't be competitive.  Sounds like last season when most experts said the Cowboys defense is really bad they won't be able to win. So the Cowboys took there weakness out of the game by running the ball and controlling the clock, thus limiting the time on the field for the suspect defense.  The result was the cowboys going 12-4, which very few expected.

So, you don't think that an NFL defense would just go cover two or press man to take away the short throws? 

Bottom line, more money is put on cowboys every year than any other team. nfc east rivalry game, gimme the dog+points. Yellow flags insure a cover

That's not what I said. I'm referring to the Giants base offense.

I'm sure the Giants would love to pay back the Cowboys in a big way in a double revenge. Road teams usually get the best of it in this series. 

There are better games then the Giants v Boys to bet on here gentleman. I'm a long time Giants fan and obviously follow the NFC east closely and it's a crap shoot I wouldn't touch either side.

Divisional games are difficult to cap to begin with but throw a team like my unpredictable Giants in the mix and anything can happen. Id lean Cowboys ATM but I'm definitely staying away here, Maybe bet the over, but even then these teams still love to pound the rock.....Ugh just stay away.

Since 1989, a underdog of more than 5 points in a divisional game within the NFC East is 98-95 ATS.

So it's not too much to give I guess.