Well, here's my read on the game sans the goofy ratings i've transcribed above.
Sometimes the player ratings gives me a good read on certain games. MNF seems to be the hardest to decipher sometimes. Not everything is in place, meaning -- a certain team have to suck for the other team to dominate, sometimes in both aspects of the game; either the key offensive players will suck or that team's defense will suck.. For example, the Chargers/Steelers game on Sunday night where the Steelers dominated on offense and defense.
Last night i made a thread heading that read: "The Steelers are winning this one for sure" based on these quarterback ratings:
Philip Rivers B-/C+
Ben Roethlisberger B+
Yes, folks. Sometimes its that easy. All i had to do was fade the quarterback whom i think will not perform well and i've found my winner. Last night, was not a good night to back Philip Rivers.
But tonight's QB ratings doesnt' tell me anything. Do i fade the protege or the master?
Aaron Rodgers A+
Brett Favre C+
Neither marks is better than the other according to my experience monitoring my grading system. These are good grades, meaning both QB's will be sharp tonight. So, in essence, this could be a good spot to take the Over; besides the heavy affluence of high scoring games for MNF.
My rating system aside, back in my fledgling days before i learned how to read biorhythm and astrology charts, my praxis for picking winners for primetime games was simply -- look towards backing the home team first. Simply put, its just damn tough to play on the road.
Its my belief that the Metrodome is one of the toughest and loudest place to play besides the Seahawk's Qwest Field. The crowd is crazy like any other stadium but all the raucousness comes with full acoustic architecture, a plethora of strategically placed PA's (speakers), and a Viking horn.
Given this venue and a legend like Brett Favre for primetime coverage, i will add extra importance of home-field advantage for this game.
Since i can't get a read on what quarterback i should fade, my next step is looking at each QB's supporting cast. That would be the QB's weapons -- the RB's and receivers. But for this matchup, i glanced beyond that and picked on what i think will be the key factor for tonight: the O-Lines.
I asked these questions:
1) Can the Packers O-Line protect Aaron Rodgers?
Answer: Yes, but not w/o lots of problems. The Vikings defense is amongst the top 5 and they have bonafide sack-masters at both ends; noticeably a dude named Jared Allen. Ray Edwards also have 2 sacks to match Jared Allen's.
Looking at these ratings, i really think the Packers O-Line will have trouble containing the Williams sisters and the DE's.
RT C- Allen Barbre; RG B- Josh Sitton; C C- Jason Spitz; LG B-/C+ T.J. Lang; LT C+ Daryn Colledge
Bad rating for Babre, low bio reading for Sitton, likewise bad rating for the center Spitz. And the Packers will be subbing 2 new left-guards tonight. Daryn Colledge looks fine with a slightly above average rating.
And now i take a look at Aaron Rodgers' offensive weapons.
RB C Ryan Grant; FB C- John Kuhn; WR C- Donald Driver; WR C- Greg Jennings; WR C-/D- Jordy Nelson; WR B+ James Jones; TE B+ Donald Lee; TE C- Jermichael Finley
Looks like it'll be a dull night for the Packers offense.
The Under/Over for Ryan Grant's rushing yards tonight is set at over 66½ +105, under under 66½ -135.
Thats A LOT of juice for the Under. I'll take that Under.
Well thats pretty much all i need to know to support my theory for taking the home team on Monday nights. Aaron Rodgers could be sharp today; but it takes more than 1 person to complete a play. If his receivers aren't making the catches... he isn't throwing completions. And if Ryan Grant isn't running well, that will limit the passing game.
If i take a look at the otherside, the Vikings' offense against the Packers defense, i might find reasons to contradict my theory. So, to keep it shorter than sweet...
My pick: Minnesota Vikings minus the points.
And here is why i don't like the Over for this game even though there are strong trends for Overs on MNF. Reason: one team might not score enough.