Im here to ruin the Bengals Broncos game.

Market snapshot and setup

Here we go. Monday night in Denver, Mile High air, national TV, and the books are hanging Broncos minus 7.5 like this Denver team is some kind of powerhouse. Newsflash, they are not. The total is in the mid 40s, so the market expects a grind, but somehow Denver is supposed to win this thing by more than a touchdown. That smells like value all day.

Yes, Joe Burrow is out, and yes, that matters. But the market already knows this and the line has adjusted. Jake Browning takes over, and while nobody’s confusing him with prime Peyton Manning, he doesn’t need to be Superman to cover. Just be Clark Kent and hand the ball to Mixon, throw a couple slants to Chase, and let the defense do its job. Noah Fant is out, which isn’t great, but Cam Taylor Britt is back in the secondary which is a huge plus against Denver’s receivers.

Denver? They’ve got their rookie Bo Nix, and Payton is babysitting him through games. This isn’t the Greatest Show on Turf we’re talking about, it’s dink and dunk with training wheels.

Denver can’t stay on schedule. Their early down numbers are trash. They get stuck in third and long, then Payton calls some half-baked play and punts. That’s not the recipe for blowing out anyone, let alone a team that can still punch you in the mouth with talent.

Bo Nix is shaky

Sure, he’s mobile and throws a pretty ball when things are clean, but as soon as he gets pressured, he turns into “checkdown Charlie.” His efficiency numbers are near the bottom. You want to lay more than a touchdown with that guy? Couldn’t be me.

The public is piling on Denver like it’s free money. That’s usually when you run the other way. When the books are comfortable sitting at 7.5 with all that Bronco money, you know sharp bettors are sitting pretty with Cincinnati tickets.

Last week looked ugly because of turnovers, not because this defense forgot how to play. With Cam Taylor Britt back, Lou Anarumo has his chess piece in the secondary again. This group knows how to ugly up a game. Regression from five turnovers? Yeah, I’ll take my chances.

Browning doesn’t have to reinvent the wheel. Just chuck it to Ja’Marr Chase a dozen times, run some quick game, screens, RPOs, and keep Denver’s pass rush honest. You can’t tell me Chase, Higgins, and Mixon aren’t enough to move the chains.

Broncos pass rush is scary, but it’s not everything

Yeah, Denver gets after the quarterback. But pressure without points is just wasted cardio. If they stall out on their own drives, that pressure just leads to a lower-scoring slugfest, and slugfests are where underdogs shine.

The Broncos haven’t been blowing people out. They’ve been scraping by. And the Bengals aren’t scared of Denver — they’ve beaten them in recent meetings. This isn’t uncharted territory.

Keep it simple. Quick passes, chip the edge rushers, screens to Mixon and Brown, and let Gesicki eat some seam routes with Fant out. The bar isn’t set high here. No turnovers, a few long drives, and suddenly this 7.5 looks fat.

Payton is going to try play action, but if Cincinnati can win first down and force Nix to actually beat them on third and long, this thing gets real ugly for Denver real quick.

Altitude is always a talking point, but it’s not like Cincinnati players are going to forget how to breathe. Thin air helps long field goals, which ironically keeps the Bengals inside the number because three is better than zero.

And the number itself? Sitting at 7.5, with spots of 8 out there if you shop. You don’t turn down free hooks in the NFL.

This game is a street fight. Browning doesn’t have to be a hero, he just has to not be a villain. If the Bengals avoid an early disaster, they’ll hang around. Denver’s offense isn’t built to run away and hide. By the fourth quarter, this thing is sitting right around one score, and you’re sitting on the right side of the ticket.

Bengals plus 7.5

Take the points, laugh at the public, and enjoy watching Denver sweat while you cash.

“Just hand the ball to Mixon”

You have really done your homework on this one great read….

Joe mixon is currently on IR for the Houston Texans . 

Mixon has been off the team a few years... I dont trust Browning, and he just cant chuck it around to chase when PS2 owns him. I will give you that Nix sucks as well. Let see a 6-3 game . Someone wins. Hope that not the QB ints (6-3)    

Still looking around but, let the defense do it's job?

Just from an eye test, Cinci is easily one of the worst defenses in the league.

Burrows and a high-powered offense was the only thing keeping them in games.  They literally have to drop 30-40+ to stand a chance of winning anything similar to what Detroit was before their defense improved.  Same with what we're seeing now with Ravens defense, etc.

Not saying they won't, because the NFL is weird like that and teams that are shit tier will randomly show up and hold teams down like Giants did yesterday with the Chargers.

@JimmyGape

LOL MY BAD I MISNAMED MIXON AS BROWN OF COURSE I KNOW HES ON THE TEXANS

Was still thinking of Mixon for some reason, it happens

I have Denv -4 alt in a lotto 9T mixed soccer tenny par last leg, licking my chops,,,I just think Cinnys QB might be the downfall, hope we middle!

@JimmyGape

Ngl dude, I stopped reading after you typed out "...and hand the ball to Mixon"

@JimmyGape

 Come on, man...

Seems like the spot is right for Denver coming home after that tough loss against the Chargers and missed opportunities. Cincy has a horrible defense. Seems like it should be a get right spot for denver offense and I'm not sure if Cincy can get past 20. If Denvers offense sputters again though Cincy could cover 27-20. I dont see a lot of value. I had to pick a side in my pickem league and went with Denver but I am considering changing it.

@ppmbryan

 Whoa lol

@Yanasaur

 Stick w Denv...

Alas. Also Jamaar Chase is WR and Chase Brown is the rb Supreme. Man o man. One of my favorite all time comedians is Chevy Chase. Is he on Covers?

5 turnovers from Browning last week just has me so scared he has 2 INTs this week at vital times of this un and kills a chance at a cover.

Lol; "With Cam Taylor Britt back, Lou Anarumo has his chess piece in the secondary again."

Lou and Mixon are gone; it's hard to take you seriously when you're not up to speed with the current rendition of the Bengals.

The reason the spread is that big is the broncos D is very good and they will probably be all over browning all night. But it’s the nfl so time will tell 

@JimmyGape

put  25k on  the bengals  

For some reason my brain was stuck in the past on this write up thinking of old players, weird. I gotta start getting more sleep or something.

Is this a good of a play as your   

That went 0 for 2?