HUGE PLAYS FOR SUNDAY FUNDAY

Why does everyone start shit with each other constantly. It's so exhausting.

The required win rate for profit at -110 odds is approx. 53%

The required win rate for profit at -120 odds is approx. 56%

By buying points he has changed his required win rate for profit by about 3%

This can also be factored into his +ev calculations if he desires....

For example if he had the jags covering +5.5 60% of the time then at +5.5 -110 he has a + ev play of about 7%...and 0% chance for a push..he wins or loses

If he buys to 6.0 his +ev play now sits at around 4% and he now has a potential for his money back if it falls on 6.

Now is the insurance worth it? He says yes others say no

Can he win 56% of the time at -120? 

Can he win 53% of the time at -110?

Is he just getting lucky when he is buying points?? He says 2 of his wins came from buying from +3.0 to +3.5...he wouldn't have lose either of those as he would have pushed...but it didn't generate profit as opposed to pushes.....is that luck or a skill in identifying the right times to buy points....

Interesting topic

Finally, someone who's showing a level of understanding.

Games are highly "influenced" now more than ever.

Football IQs have dropped significantly.

Coaches used to make bonehead decisions once in a while, now it seems like a prerequisite to be a coach.

Betting on this league has become very challenging which means you have to implement strategies when it makes sense to increase your chances of winning.

I havent done any market research, but at Pinnacles you pay around 0.5 to 0.8 percentage points more vig on the alternative lines than on the main line. While this isnt nothing, it is not that big of a deal as the last two pages do suggest.

It had been touched in another thread quite some time ago, that there is some chance that bookies might not have caught up on NFL teams making more agressive and better ingame decisions- in a way that there are shifts within the distribution of winning margins. Hence, some points could be under- or overvalued by bookies- but I doubt there is any significant edge to be found here given the (albeit small) extra juice.

I share the disappointment about the theoretical background of SportsIntuiton though, or his willingsness to share it.

And counterproductive.

There is a difference between "winning" a game - which is what you like to anecdotally point to - and BEING PROFITABLE over many games.

Not sure if you are purposely ignoring that fact or not - but pointing out when you win a single game is totally irrelevant.  The relevant factor is what you are paying for that, and your profit.

@vanzack

 Perhaps you would be better served taking this discussion here:

 https://www.covers.com/forum/systems-strategies-79

@vanzack

 I think the buying of points on every bet is because of the way he keeps his record. Example. Monster NFL play of the year. My record is 10-6 on these plays( but no one knows I laid so much juice on my losers that im actually losing for the year)It’s obvious his goal is to go pro

@SportsIntuition

 Good luck!!!!!

@ETWINS

 I'm already a "pro", meaning that I have personally and successfully bet football for 20+ years.

This is hard for anyone to do so I feel blessed that I've been able to do it.

The LAST thing I would ever do is become a tout.

Touts are the scum of the earth.

I prefer just betting, winning and living life to the fullest with my beautiful wife.

That's what life is about.

Well said and I look at many that say they are winning in prop bets. Only to look and the juice is -180 or higher, many times. You better have a incredible winning record if the majority of the plays are at that high of a vig.

@O-K-Man

@MilkyBeard

 So true 

The funny thing is many dogs I pick do actually win outright.

18-8-1 NFL

23-14 CFB

3-1 "GOY"

64% through 64 games.

Let's hope it continues.

@vanzack

 You come off bitter and clownish with your post, anyone in the money mgmt business practices hedging their bets only a novice or clueless fool doesn’t hedge

@Picks2winby

@rhgambler

Smart investors hedge especially when there is big money on the line.

Word salad.  Yummy Yummy.

Van, dont bother asking.  I still say if you need to buy a 1/2 point, that means the pick you are making isnt very strong and really should look for another one

@vanzack

 I hated it when the one asshole was constantly in your thread about your "juice" and "accurate units". Don't be that guy.

@SportsIntuition

 You do not have to explain yourself to no one. You do a great job. If everyone just mind their own business, everything would be so much better. Thanks for your selections. I certainly appreciate them.

Ignore the noise SI. Good luck with all your plays

@MilkyBeard

@lueelue