Posted:
#26
"GOY": PATRIOTS ML [-120]
Bill gets #300. The situational stars have aligned perfectly for him. I can see the Pats pulling away for a double digit win.
2
HUGE PLAYS FOR SUNDAY FUNDAY
Posted:
#27
Quote Originally Posted by RUM151:
@Eprince no not true, its about the numbers, 3 4 6 7 10 11 5-8-9 12 would never buy
@Eprince no not true, its about the numbers, 3 4 6 7 10 11 5-8-9 12 would never buy
I asked the same question yesterday about buying points on every play? I have bought points on all the numbers you mention here but that's it. SI just bought the Steelers from +4.5 to 5 and I don't see any reason to do that. Even the Jags from +5.5 to +6 is something I would never consider. Also a couple of my books can be -30 just for buying a half point, no thanks!
You learn more from losing than winning. You learn how to keep going.
2
Posted:
#28
@vanzack
"But buying off of EVERY number, in EVERY situation - is a longterm loser."
This is a fact mathematically, SI. Overcoming 20% juice long term is pretty near impossible. Just sit down and think about it sometime, or maybe find you someone good in math to show you.
And too, the books wouldn't offer you the option to buy a half if it wasn't to their advantage. Maybe consider this fact too.
I used to be a 1/2 point buyer too, so it's not like I don't have some experience with it. The only time might pay off is to buy a 1/2 point in a multi-leg parlay play. You can benefit that way when one of your legs pushes. But parlays are for suckers, and you don't bet those, I'm sure.
RT2
0
Posted:
#30
Very simply...
If you are currently winning big consistently, if you didnt buy points indiscriminately - you would be winning bigger.
End of story.
Being that you have advanced degrees from Wharton AND MIT, you should certainly understand the concept of overpaying for risk factors. This works in insurance, but not in gambling. When you have a one time event that covers utility that you cant cover yourself- you overpay to reduce risk. In this case - you are simply overpaying and while you say you win big - you are not maximizing your profit.
GL
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
1
Posted:
#31
For those who are here to debate "buying points", I am not interested and will not respond or engage.
The bottom line is you do you what works for you and I will continue to do what has proven to be very successful for me over 20+ years.
The only people who "debate" buying points are those that LOSE consistently.
Those that win consistently don't need to debate the topic because you don't pay the extra vig when you win.
And the little impact the extra vig has on overall net profit is very small when you win big consistently.
Smart investors consider this small amount of gain given up to be a premium paid for insurance.
Smart investors are also always looking to hedge and protect, and are willing to be premiums to do it, even if it's 10-20%.
Now, get back to picking your games and I will get back to picking mine.
Good luck to everyone!
4
Posted:
#32
Quote Originally Posted by SportsIntuition:
@vanzack @dayknight This question was asked yesterday in the CFB thread and the individual who said "research" shows it's a losing proposition long-term. Here is my response: The "research" on the subject only works because of what I already said - 98% of the people lose big. What do you think those same "researchers" would find if they did the same study on the 2% that win big consistently? Common sense says if you lose big consistently, don't waste your money on buying a half point because it won't matter, because you've already proven you can't pick winners. But if you win big consistently [like me] then it's a whole different ballgame because you do things to protect every investment you make, like hedging and buying half points to get to certain key numbers. I've been VERY successful betting football for the last 20+ years. I'm not an action junkie or degen, I am a very smart investor. And the last thing I would ever do is change what's worked for me. All because "research" that doesn't apply to me, and others like me, says it's a losing proposition.
@vanzack @dayknight This question was asked yesterday in the CFB thread and the individual who said "research" shows it's a losing proposition long-term. Here is my response: The "research" on the subject only works because of what I already said - 98% of the people lose big. What do you think those same "researchers" would find if they did the same study on the 2% that win big consistently? Common sense says if you lose big consistently, don't waste your money on buying a half point because it won't matter, because you've already proven you can't pick winners. But if you win big consistently [like me] then it's a whole different ballgame because you do things to protect every investment you make, like hedging and buying half points to get to certain key numbers. I've been VERY successful betting football for the last 20+ years. I'm not an action junkie or degen, I am a very smart investor. And the last thing I would ever do is change what's worked for me. All because "research" that doesn't apply to me, and others like me, says it's a losing proposition.
Are you telling us you keep track through the years(not a game here and there) that you end up winning more? If so, I am sure you have numbers to back that up. Just curious what those numbers are. Wish you continued success.
0
Posted:
#34
Quote Originally Posted by SportsIntuition:
18-8-1 NFL 23-14 CFB 3-1 "GOY" FIRST UP: JAGUARS +6 [-20] Bills are in one of the worst scheduling spots of the season. Jags win straight up. More soon including a "GOY" type play!
18-8-1 NFL 23-14 CFB 3-1 "GOY" FIRST UP: JAGUARS +6 [-20] Bills are in one of the worst scheduling spots of the season. Jags win straight up. More soon including a "GOY" type play!
Quote Originally Posted by SportsIntuition:
ADDING: STEELERS +5 [-20]
ADDING: STEELERS +5 [-20]
Quote Originally Posted by SportsIntuition:
"GOY": PATRIOTS ML [-120] Bill gets #300. The situational stars have aligned perfectly for him. I can see the Pats pulling away for a double digit win.
"GOY": PATRIOTS ML [-120] Bill gets #300. The situational stars have aligned perfectly for him. I can see the Pats pulling away for a double digit win.
Picks so far.
1
Posted:
#35
Quote Originally Posted by SportsIntuition:
For those who are here to debate "buying points", I am not interested and will not respond or engage. The bottom line is you do you what works for you and I will continue to do what has proven to be very successful for me over 20+ years. The only people who "debate" buying points are those that LOSE consistently. Those that win consistently don't need to debate the topic because you don't pay the extra vig when you win. And the little impact the extra vig has on overall net profit is very small when you win big consistently. Smart investors consider this small amount of gain given up to be a premium paid for insurance. Smart investors are also always looking to hedge and protect, and are willing to be premiums to do it, even if it's 10-20%. Now, get back to picking your games and I will get back to picking mine. Good luck to everyone!
For those who are here to debate "buying points", I am not interested and will not respond or engage. The bottom line is you do you what works for you and I will continue to do what has proven to be very successful for me over 20+ years. The only people who "debate" buying points are those that LOSE consistently. Those that win consistently don't need to debate the topic because you don't pay the extra vig when you win. And the little impact the extra vig has on overall net profit is very small when you win big consistently. Smart investors consider this small amount of gain given up to be a premium paid for insurance. Smart investors are also always looking to hedge and protect, and are willing to be premiums to do it, even if it's 10-20%. Now, get back to picking your games and I will get back to picking mine. Good luck to everyone!
There is so much wrong in this statement I dont know where to begin. What are they teaching at Wharton and MIT these days?
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
2
Posted:
#40
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:
For dogs, they lose the game by exactly by 3 points 8.9% of the time.......if the line is <+7, it happens 9.3% of the time. If one is paying more than 9% vig to bet off of +3, you are at a disadvantage.
For dogs, they lose the game by exactly by 3 points 8.9% of the time.......if the line is <+7, it happens 9.3% of the time. If one is paying more than 9% vig to bet off of +3, you are at a disadvantage.
Then the fact that I am 2-0 with my GOY type plays this season when buying off 3 to make 3.5 this season makes me BRILLIANT then, agree?
0
Posted:
#42
Quote Originally Posted by SportsIntuition:
Apparently, after another successful day yesterday, the Covers clarion call went out to its trolls. You know you are doing something right when they all show up and try to find fault with what you are doing. Life is good.
Apparently, after another successful day yesterday, the Covers clarion call went out to its trolls. You know you are doing something right when they all show up and try to find fault with what you are doing. Life is good.
Thats an easy strawman to fall back on.
But its not the case. We all wish you success. But when asked about something that you do habitually - and you have no answer - that speaks for itself. Its not bad. Its just that you tried to use all kinds of weird distractions from the main point - which is you are overpaying for insurance. And that is a longterm loser.
Nobody is trolling you. We all wish you well. At least I do. I was seriously trying to learn an angle - but there is no learning here - there are just winner of the day type of picks.
Carry on.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
3
Posted:
#43
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by SportsIntuition: Apparently, after another successful day yesterday, the Covers clarion call went out to its trolls. You know you are doing something right when they all show up and try to find fault with what you are doing. Life is good.
Quote Originally Posted by SportsIntuition: Apparently, after another successful day yesterday, the Covers clarion call went out to its trolls. You know you are doing something right when they all show up and try to find fault with what you are doing. Life is good.
Thats an easy strawman to fall back on. But its not the case. We all wish you success. But when asked about something that you do habitually - and you have no answer - that speaks for itself. Its not bad. Its just that you tried to use all kinds of weird distractions from the main point - which is you are overpaying for insurance. And that is a longterm loser. Nobody is trolling you. We all wish you well. At least I do. I was seriously trying to learn an angle - but there is no learning here - there are just winner of the day type of picks. Carry on.
0
Posted:
#45
Quote Originally Posted by SportsIntuition:
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999: For dogs, they lose the game by exactly by 3 points 8.9% of the time.......if the line is <+7, it happens 9.3% of the time. If one is paying more than 9% vig to bet off of +3, you are at a disadvantage. Then the fact that I am 2-0 with my GOY type plays this season when buying off 3 to make 3.5 this season makes me BRILLIANT then, agree?
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999: For dogs, they lose the game by exactly by 3 points 8.9% of the time.......if the line is <+7, it happens 9.3% of the time. If one is paying more than 9% vig to bet off of +3, you are at a disadvantage. Then the fact that I am 2-0 with my GOY type plays this season when buying off 3 to make 3.5 this season makes me BRILLIANT then, agree?
Buying off of 3 to 3.5 makes total sense but off of 4.5 to 5 or 5.5 to 6 really has very little value. No one here is being a troll just wondering why every wager is being bought.
Good luck going forward! 
You learn more from losing than winning. You learn how to keep going.
1
Posted:
#46
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by SportsIntuition: Apparently, after another successful day yesterday, the Covers clarion call went out to its trolls. You know you are doing something right when they all show up and try to find fault with what you are doing. Life is good. Thats an easy strawman to fall back on. But its not the case. We all wish you success. But when asked about something that you do habitually - and you have no answer - that speaks for itself. Its not bad. Its just that you tried to use all kinds of weird distractions from the main point - which is you are overpaying for insurance. And that is a longterm loser. Nobody is trolling you. We all wish you well. At least I do. I was seriously trying to learn an angle - but there is no learning here - there are just winner of the day type of picks. Carry on.
Quote Originally Posted by SportsIntuition: Apparently, after another successful day yesterday, the Covers clarion call went out to its trolls. You know you are doing something right when they all show up and try to find fault with what you are doing. Life is good. Thats an easy strawman to fall back on. But its not the case. We all wish you success. But when asked about something that you do habitually - and you have no answer - that speaks for itself. Its not bad. Its just that you tried to use all kinds of weird distractions from the main point - which is you are overpaying for insurance. And that is a longterm loser. Nobody is trolling you. We all wish you well. At least I do. I was seriously trying to learn an angle - but there is no learning here - there are just winner of the day type of picks. Carry on.
Honestly with his "they win by double digits" & "wrong team is favored" statements that he continually uses, he's all smoke and mirrors as more times than not, these words have not come true on his plays. We all know what the motive is here. Great salesman, sure, I'll buy that.
If he can go say 55% or greater over a LARGE sample size, then let's talk.
GL board
Howard Lewis "Home of 100% transparent plays."
1
Posted:
#47
@thehuntman
6 is the new 7 with missed XPs and more 2-pt attempts
So 5.5 to 6 makes some sense
5.0 to 5.5 makes no sense as you don't lose anything if it happens to land on 5 exact and is fairly rare compared to 1-4, 6 and 7
4.5 to 5.0 makes a little sense. You would get your money back if it happened to fall exactly on 5....but 5 a rarer number in nfl results
0
Posted:
#49
@vanzack
Listen, there is no upside for anyone in trying to debate this topic or any topic for that matter.
We all have our own strategies that make sense to us.
Bottom line, everyone here sees I have been doing well.
How I get there doesn't matter, nor does it concern anyone.
This is also why I don't post bet amounts.
As I've said from the start, follow the wins-losses and insert your own numbers [bet amount, vig, etc] and see how it impacts you because that's all that matters at the end of the day. PERIOD.
Me not wanting to engage something that is counterproductive isn't a distraction, but someone want to to try to find something "wrong" with someone whose been consistently providing winners is the real distraction.
Maybe go start your own thread today and post some picks.
Let's see how you do.
1
Posted:
#50
But this would be the MOST PRODUCTIVE discussion we could possibly have.
How do you say it is counter-productive? It is clearly what most people are interested in that you do.
This is a DISCUSSION forum. People DISCUSS things. You do something worthy of discussion. But you refuse to engage. OK.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
2
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