Posted:
#1
Final 2010 NFL regular season: 58-44 @ 57% for + $9,600
NFL-P '10-'11 Record: 3-1 @ 75%
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#2: Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-120) (My 2nd GOW...sure I can have 2, why not?..Love 'em both!)
Let’s compare the ‘relative-strength’ of each team.
Ravens O: 22.8 ppg
Opp Def Ave: 21.6
Variance: +1.2
Ravens D: 16.3 ppg
Opp Off Ave: 21.3
Variance: +5.0
Total Variance: +6.2
Steelers O: 23.4 ppg
Opp Def Ave: 21.1
Variance: +2.3
Steelers D: 14.5 ppg
Opp Off Ave: 21.3
Variance: +6.8
Total Variance: +9.1
Clearly both teams are above-average offensively and way superior defensively compared to their opponents. As good as Baltimore is, Pittsburgh is even better both offensively and defensively. Baltimore has a ‘relative’ variance of +6.2, while Pittsburgh is at +9.1. The difference in ‘relative-variances’ between the 2 squads is +2.9. Clearly Pittsburgh is a better team. I’d like to repeat this statement: Pittsburgh Steelers are a better team than Baltimore Ravens! Why am I repeating it? Well, because after seeing Baltimore dominate KC last week (Ravens -2.5 was my GOW last week by the way) the public is jumping all over Baltimore in this one. Remember, the key to betting playoffs is to determine which team is a truly ‘BETTER’ squad. Then obviously we have to take the spread into consideration, but as everyone knows, the spread in the NFL only comes into play about 18% of the time. In any case, by comparing ‘relative’ strength of each team, it provides us with a ‘simple’ way of figuring out which is a ‘better’ squad. Alright, need a little more proof? Let’s break down some additional stats and hopefully that will confirm our initial ‘notion’.
Offensively, the Ravens averaged 116 RYpg for a 3.7 ave per rush (#28) and 211 PYpg for a 7.4 ave yards per attempt (#9). Steelers on offense averaged 120 RYpg for a 4.1 ave per rush (#18) and 225 PYpg for a 8.1 ave yards per attempt (#2). Clearly, Steelers are more efficient both passing and running the ball. Defensively, the Ravens gave up 94.8 RYpg for a 4.0 ave per rush (#8) and 214 PYpg for a 6.4 ave yards per attempt (#2 – guess who #1 was…) Steelers’ D gave up 62.8 RYpg for a 3.0 ave per rush (#1) and 214 PYpg for a 6.3 ave per attempt (#1). As good as both defenses are, Steelers are just better. There’s a reason why defensively they are #1 in both ave RY and ave PY per attempt. The reason we can confidently compare these stats and confirm that Steelers are a better team offensively and defensively, is because they faced pretty much the same opponents. You can take a look at the “Opponents Defensive Average” and “Opponents Offensive Average” that I listed above (in the relative-strength comparison) to confirm that. Finally, I want to point out that Ravens on offense have produced 14.4 YPPT and held their opponents to 19.0 YPPT. Steelers offense gained 14.7 and defense allowed 19.1 YPPT. Speak about efficiency! Both teams are mirror images of each other here. Well, remember that Pittsburgh didn’t have Big Ben for the first 4 weeks of the season, so their efficiency # should be better than it really is. Additionally, Baltimore’s D is less efficient on the road, giving up 17.9 YPPT compared to 19.0 YPPT on the season. (Yes, I know I’m reaching a little here ?) Steelers at home yielded 19.7 YPPT compared to 19.1 YPPT on the season, so you can say their D is a tad more efficient at home. In any case, the bottom line here is that Steelers are ‘clearly’ the better team. How much better? Well, that’s up for a debate but I just wanted to prove to everyone statistically that they are a better squad and there really is no argument against that.
NFL-P '10-'11 Record: 3-1 @ 75%
===================================
#2: Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-120) (My 2nd GOW...sure I can have 2, why not?..Love 'em both!)
Let’s compare the ‘relative-strength’ of each team.
Ravens O: 22.8 ppg
Opp Def Ave: 21.6
Variance: +1.2
Ravens D: 16.3 ppg
Opp Off Ave: 21.3
Variance: +5.0
Total Variance: +6.2
Steelers O: 23.4 ppg
Opp Def Ave: 21.1
Variance: +2.3
Steelers D: 14.5 ppg
Opp Off Ave: 21.3
Variance: +6.8
Total Variance: +9.1
Clearly both teams are above-average offensively and way superior defensively compared to their opponents. As good as Baltimore is, Pittsburgh is even better both offensively and defensively. Baltimore has a ‘relative’ variance of +6.2, while Pittsburgh is at +9.1. The difference in ‘relative-variances’ between the 2 squads is +2.9. Clearly Pittsburgh is a better team. I’d like to repeat this statement: Pittsburgh Steelers are a better team than Baltimore Ravens! Why am I repeating it? Well, because after seeing Baltimore dominate KC last week (Ravens -2.5 was my GOW last week by the way) the public is jumping all over Baltimore in this one. Remember, the key to betting playoffs is to determine which team is a truly ‘BETTER’ squad. Then obviously we have to take the spread into consideration, but as everyone knows, the spread in the NFL only comes into play about 18% of the time. In any case, by comparing ‘relative’ strength of each team, it provides us with a ‘simple’ way of figuring out which is a ‘better’ squad. Alright, need a little more proof? Let’s break down some additional stats and hopefully that will confirm our initial ‘notion’.
Offensively, the Ravens averaged 116 RYpg for a 3.7 ave per rush (#28) and 211 PYpg for a 7.4 ave yards per attempt (#9). Steelers on offense averaged 120 RYpg for a 4.1 ave per rush (#18) and 225 PYpg for a 8.1 ave yards per attempt (#2). Clearly, Steelers are more efficient both passing and running the ball. Defensively, the Ravens gave up 94.8 RYpg for a 4.0 ave per rush (#8) and 214 PYpg for a 6.4 ave yards per attempt (#2 – guess who #1 was…) Steelers’ D gave up 62.8 RYpg for a 3.0 ave per rush (#1) and 214 PYpg for a 6.3 ave per attempt (#1). As good as both defenses are, Steelers are just better. There’s a reason why defensively they are #1 in both ave RY and ave PY per attempt. The reason we can confidently compare these stats and confirm that Steelers are a better team offensively and defensively, is because they faced pretty much the same opponents. You can take a look at the “Opponents Defensive Average” and “Opponents Offensive Average” that I listed above (in the relative-strength comparison) to confirm that. Finally, I want to point out that Ravens on offense have produced 14.4 YPPT and held their opponents to 19.0 YPPT. Steelers offense gained 14.7 and defense allowed 19.1 YPPT. Speak about efficiency! Both teams are mirror images of each other here. Well, remember that Pittsburgh didn’t have Big Ben for the first 4 weeks of the season, so their efficiency # should be better than it really is. Additionally, Baltimore’s D is less efficient on the road, giving up 17.9 YPPT compared to 19.0 YPPT on the season. (Yes, I know I’m reaching a little here ?) Steelers at home yielded 19.7 YPPT compared to 19.1 YPPT on the season, so you can say their D is a tad more efficient at home. In any case, the bottom line here is that Steelers are ‘clearly’ the better team. How much better? Well, that’s up for a debate but I just wanted to prove to everyone statistically that they are a better squad and there really is no argument against that.
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