There is an interesting situation with CIN right now for folks that like futures that may have value.
There are some very great odds for CIN to win the division, the AFC, and the SB.
These are very long odds for the obvious reason of it being an extremely long shot.
The odds are around 36/1 to win division.
The odds are around 250/1 to win AFC.
The odds are around 500/1 to win SB.
Remaining games:
CINBLT PIT
@BLTCINBUF
@BUF PIT@BLT
BLT @CIN MIA
@MIANE @DET
AZ @GB@CLV
CLV @PIT BLT
There is a path for CIN to win the division if they win out.They would then only need BLT to lose another game.BLT has PIT twice and they always play BLT tough.They have NE and at GB, both of which are trying to position for the playoffs.
PIT has a gauntlet left with BLT twice and BUF and DET that are vying for playoff positioning.PIT also has MIA which is playing much better.Then they go to CLV where that defense makes any game a dogfight.
There is even a scenario where CIN could lose tomorrow and beat BLT at home.
All 3 teams could even end up 8-9 and CIN be the one to win the division.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
There is an interesting situation with CIN right now for folks that like futures that may have value.
There are some very great odds for CIN to win the division, the AFC, and the SB.
These are very long odds for the obvious reason of it being an extremely long shot.
The odds are around 36/1 to win division.
The odds are around 250/1 to win AFC.
The odds are around 500/1 to win SB.
Remaining games:
CINBLT PIT
@BLTCINBUF
@BUF PIT@BLT
BLT @CIN MIA
@MIANE @DET
AZ @GB@CLV
CLV @PIT BLT
There is a path for CIN to win the division if they win out.They would then only need BLT to lose another game.BLT has PIT twice and they always play BLT tough.They have NE and at GB, both of which are trying to position for the playoffs.
PIT has a gauntlet left with BLT twice and BUF and DET that are vying for playoff positioning.PIT also has MIA which is playing much better.Then they go to CLV where that defense makes any game a dogfight.
There is even a scenario where CIN could lose tomorrow and beat BLT at home.
All 3 teams could even end up 8-9 and CIN be the one to win the division.
I think if someone likes Burrow and Chase coming back and consider that Jackson is not playing like he normally has and PIT being iffy every week that there is great value on these futures.
IF BLT wins this week their chance to make the playoffs is 75%, if they lose it drops to 55%.
IF PIT wins this week their chance to make the playoffs is 52%, if they lose it drops to 29%.
Currently CIN has about a 1% chance if they win this week.
However, if CIN should somehow go into BLT and get a win the odds for all of these will come down considerably.Especially, considering BLT and PIT’s remaining games.Then CIN appears to have an easier remaining schedule than the other two teams.
Granted CIN would need to go into BUF and win next week if they lose to BLT.But if they win today they can afford to lose to BUF.
It is a very, very long shot.
I am not a futures expert by any means but there is great value on these right now.
Consider that division odds for BLT is -450 and PIT is +350.
Odds for AFC for BLT is +550 and PIT is +4500
For SB odds for BLT is +1000 and for PIT is +12500
One thing to consider is that while Burrow may have a winning record against BLT he has a losing record when Jackson plays.But Jackson and BLT do not seem to be playing like in years past.
Just something to consider for anyone that might like and extremely long shot with a bit of value.
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I think if someone likes Burrow and Chase coming back and consider that Jackson is not playing like he normally has and PIT being iffy every week that there is great value on these futures.
IF BLT wins this week their chance to make the playoffs is 75%, if they lose it drops to 55%.
IF PIT wins this week their chance to make the playoffs is 52%, if they lose it drops to 29%.
Currently CIN has about a 1% chance if they win this week.
However, if CIN should somehow go into BLT and get a win the odds for all of these will come down considerably.Especially, considering BLT and PIT’s remaining games.Then CIN appears to have an easier remaining schedule than the other two teams.
Granted CIN would need to go into BUF and win next week if they lose to BLT.But if they win today they can afford to lose to BUF.
It is a very, very long shot.
I am not a futures expert by any means but there is great value on these right now.
Consider that division odds for BLT is -450 and PIT is +350.
Odds for AFC for BLT is +550 and PIT is +4500
For SB odds for BLT is +1000 and for PIT is +12500
One thing to consider is that while Burrow may have a winning record against BLT he has a losing record when Jackson plays.But Jackson and BLT do not seem to be playing like in years past.
Just something to consider for anyone that might like and extremely long shot with a bit of value.
Raiders, I'm not sure about this one, and I'm someone that likes futures, and spends some time analyzing them preseason. I've kept a spreadsheet of my picks over the years to track the progress, and have turned a decent profit over the years.
The biggest problem with this bet is Burrow coming back doesn't address the core problem of this team, and that is defense. They are atrocious, and this is coming from someone that expected big things from incoming DC Al Golden. He was a previous defensive coach, and did exceptional at Notre Dame. I in fact had CIN to win AFC, which is a loser bet.... but I digress..
This truly is a lottery ticket based on a hunch that the defense turns around at the precise time Burrow comes back. It could happen, but there's not much logic to it
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Raiders, I'm not sure about this one, and I'm someone that likes futures, and spends some time analyzing them preseason. I've kept a spreadsheet of my picks over the years to track the progress, and have turned a decent profit over the years.
The biggest problem with this bet is Burrow coming back doesn't address the core problem of this team, and that is defense. They are atrocious, and this is coming from someone that expected big things from incoming DC Al Golden. He was a previous defensive coach, and did exceptional at Notre Dame. I in fact had CIN to win AFC, which is a loser bet.... but I digress..
This truly is a lottery ticket based on a hunch that the defense turns around at the precise time Burrow comes back. It could happen, but there's not much logic to it
If they win 2 out of the first 3 then the last 3 look awful nice. It is not like Baltimore has the defense they usually have. BUF can certainly be scored on. I think it would be more a play on their offense getting better.
Absolutely it would be a long shot. That is why the odds are what they are. I just think the odds should be somewhat less than they currently are. It would be strictly a value play.
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@Rush51
If they win 2 out of the first 3 then the last 3 look awful nice. It is not like Baltimore has the defense they usually have. BUF can certainly be scored on. I think it would be more a play on their offense getting better.
Absolutely it would be a long shot. That is why the odds are what they are. I just think the odds should be somewhat less than they currently are. It would be strictly a value play.
Think I read today that bungles have worst DVOA in nfl history
Of course. They will have to be better and hope their offense can, as they say, ‘out score’ them. It is not like Baltimore has the defense they are known for.
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Quote Originally Posted by rosswin97:
Think I read today that bungles have worst DVOA in nfl history
Of course. They will have to be better and hope their offense can, as they say, ‘out score’ them. It is not like Baltimore has the defense they are known for.
I am not sure how this would compare to preseason type futures? As an in-season anticipatory play on an elite QB that could have actually played last week (he even took 1st team reps) and Chase coming back
For example, something else would be their season win total right now at 5.5 games.
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@Rush51
I am not sure how this would compare to preseason type futures? As an in-season anticipatory play on an elite QB that could have actually played last week (he even took 1st team reps) and Chase coming back
For example, something else would be their season win total right now at 5.5 games.
Another way I would look at it is that the odds for Baltimore are awful. They look to win that division fairly easily. That is why to me there is no value at all on them.
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@Rush51
Another way I would look at it is that the odds for Baltimore are awful. They look to win that division fairly easily. That is why to me there is no value at all on them.
@Rush51 If they win 2 out of the first 3 then the last 3 look awful nice. It is not like Baltimore has the defense they usually have. BUF can certainly be scored on. I think it would be more a play on their offense getting better. Absolutely it would be a long shot. That is why the odds are what they are. I just think the odds should be somewhat less than they currently are. It would be strictly a value play.
But their offense hasn't been a reason for their recent losses, even w Flacco . Go look at the points that have been put up. That's the problem w the whole argument .
The defense is the core of the problem, and Burrow coming back doesn't address this problem
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Quote Originally Posted by Raiders22:
@Rush51 If they win 2 out of the first 3 then the last 3 look awful nice. It is not like Baltimore has the defense they usually have. BUF can certainly be scored on. I think it would be more a play on their offense getting better. Absolutely it would be a long shot. That is why the odds are what they are. I just think the odds should be somewhat less than they currently are. It would be strictly a value play.
But their offense hasn't been a reason for their recent losses, even w Flacco . Go look at the points that have been put up. That's the problem w the whole argument .
The defense is the core of the problem, and Burrow coming back doesn't address this problem
Oh I understand it. I have their defensive efficiency dead last and it is not close. But having the offense score helps take a lot off of it. Then they are playing a team that is not what it used to be also. Then the last few games are not that difficult.
I think it is very, very likely Baltimore wins the division. But if CIN were to win tonight. The odds then drop enough that there would no longer be any value on them. Because then they would not HAVE to beat Baltimore even though it is at home.
But you are correct that their defense is one of the problems with it. But there are several problems with it.
But like the man said, “I think they have one fastball left in them.”
These teams like BLT, PIT, KC, and CIN and even DAL have enough talent and experience to realize they still have a chance — sort of. I just think folks thought Jackson would be playing better once he came back and that is why there is no value on them at this point.
Even though I don’t play futures, I am about to talk myself into a flyer on it.
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@Rush51
Oh I understand it. I have their defensive efficiency dead last and it is not close. But having the offense score helps take a lot off of it. Then they are playing a team that is not what it used to be also. Then the last few games are not that difficult.
I think it is very, very likely Baltimore wins the division. But if CIN were to win tonight. The odds then drop enough that there would no longer be any value on them. Because then they would not HAVE to beat Baltimore even though it is at home.
But you are correct that their defense is one of the problems with it. But there are several problems with it.
But like the man said, “I think they have one fastball left in them.”
These teams like BLT, PIT, KC, and CIN and even DAL have enough talent and experience to realize they still have a chance — sort of. I just think folks thought Jackson would be playing better once he came back and that is why there is no value on them at this point.
Even though I don’t play futures, I am about to talk myself into a flyer on it.
I would not touch the PIT total. But that is just me. They are not playing well and everyone they have left is in playoff contention except CLV and they are in CLV and always tough with that defense. But Tomlin has a way of keeping them motivated. I just think with Rodgers and Tomlin they can be a threat every week to win games they should not win.
Raiders is a solid play I think. I think you have to hope they cannot beat LAC. Because DEN and PHL are solid playoff teams. Going into HOU with that defense and they may be in contention also. NYG at home they may win. KC at home they could win because of rivalry and KC may be out of contention.
But I am not into futures and have no idea about value on either of those plays really.
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@brn2loslive2win
I would not touch the PIT total. But that is just me. They are not playing well and everyone they have left is in playoff contention except CLV and they are in CLV and always tough with that defense. But Tomlin has a way of keeping them motivated. I just think with Rodgers and Tomlin they can be a threat every week to win games they should not win.
Raiders is a solid play I think. I think you have to hope they cannot beat LAC. Because DEN and PHL are solid playoff teams. Going into HOU with that defense and they may be in contention also. NYG at home they may win. KC at home they could win because of rivalry and KC may be out of contention.
But I am not into futures and have no idea about value on either of those plays really.
Thanks for responding. The best future on the entire board imo is in the awards market. I know a lot of guys aren’t exactly running to the window to place a -225 bet, but Matt Stafford MVP looks nearly inevitable. Looking at the current stats and position that the Rams are in, what would it take for Stafford not to win the MVP?!
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@Raiders22
Thanks for responding. The best future on the entire board imo is in the awards market. I know a lot of guys aren’t exactly running to the window to place a -225 bet, but Matt Stafford MVP looks nearly inevitable. Looking at the current stats and position that the Rams are in, what would it take for Stafford not to win the MVP?!
I think you are correct. The only other choice right now would be Maye if they close out good and he puts up great numbers. But I think he would need Stafford to have a bad game or two also.
But I am not sure the value is there with Stafford. I think he should be more of a favorite right now.
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@brn2loslive2win
I think you are correct. The only other choice right now would be Maye if they close out good and he puts up great numbers. But I think he would need Stafford to have a bad game or two also.
But I am not sure the value is there with Stafford. I think he should be more of a favorite right now.
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