As bad as the Phins looked on SNF (and every game outside of normal Sunday TV slot) this is no gift because if you haven't noticed the Chiefs are struggling too all year.
It's gonna be a cagey down to the wire job but I think Mahomes will pull it out because they have a much better defense the Phins are getting torched through the air and it will be cold there, too. No way boy genius McDaniel can match wits with Fat Andy who went to 5 straight NFC conferences when boy genius was still in diapers and won a couple rings since then.
@Dolbron
Its funny I always said McDaniels seems like the perfect coach for the Instagram/Twitter society. He cares more about his public image than he does winning football games. The guy loves be the topic of conversation. Always has the sound bite. He is the perfect blend of arrogance and boy next door charm that the media types love. But the dude can't coach. Its insane how much hype he gets. That being said the Chiefs have not been the Chiefs for a while. Yes I know defending champs can turn it on in the playoffs. I honestly I am not sure about that. This game could go either way in my opinion and not worth slamming either way. BOL though!
@Jimmy_Cats
too many factors going up against Miami this week but if there was an underwhelming team that could help them out, it is the Kansas City Chiefs.
everything is lining up against Miami so much that it makes me nervous as someone already on KC -3.5. One of those games where at the end of the night we'll be wondering either "how was KC only laying 3.5 against this Phins team" OR "can't believe how that game ended and how old and shitty Travis Kelce looks as his suga momma cheers him from her box suite".
The chiefs defense has been “looking good” cause they have been facing crap QBs.. the defense is better then last year but it’s overrated in my opinion.. Miami could keep this game close with there run game.. this years Chiefs team has a terrible offense.. Mahomes is great Reid is great.. Kelce isn’t the same player.. receivers are 2nd and 3rd string simply put.. inconsistent.. so no matter how good the QB is the receivers keep letting him down.. Mahomes can only do so much.. Miami loses only to good teams..the chiefs are not a good team this year..
I am not touching this game but the only 2 reasons to take the Chiefs.. they are @home.. and Miami is banged up..
with a spread of over 3 to me Miami is the side and with a total of 44 I would say the under as well.. Chiefs have no offense with a decent defense.. run game script from Miami without healthy receivers should equal clock movement
Good luck with this game
@ChOmP
The chiefs defense has been “looking good” cause they have been facing crap QBs.. the defense is better then last year but it’s overrated in my opinion.. Miami could keep this game close with there run game.. this years Chiefs team has a terrible offense.. Mahomes is great Reid is great.. Kelce isn’t the same player.. receivers are 2nd and 3rd string simply put.. inconsistent.. so no matter how good the QB is the receivers keep letting him down.. Mahomes can only do so much.. Miami loses only to good teams..the chiefs are not a good team this year..
Terrible offense compared to past years, yes.... still ranked 8th in offensive DVOA this year so they haven't been terribly inefficient. Everything here you stated is spot on. I'd argue though at home, hosting a playoff game, Mahomes & Andy will have this team ready to play. Overall dvoa they are still 5th overall in the league and have a dominant special teams, something Miami is lacking at 22nd in the league.
The only "good" QB they have beaten all year was Tua....
I am not touching this game but the only 2 reasons to take the Chiefs.. they are @home.. and Miami is banged up..
Plus Tua's record in games with temps under 40. It will be ZERO degrees come Saturday night in KC.
with a spread of over 3 to me Miami is the side and with a total of 44 I would say the under as well.. Chiefs have no offense with a decent defense.. run game script from Miami without healthy receivers should equal clock movement
Yes, this on the UNDER too ^
Not a bad game to stay away from at all
Dline is not wrecked...They have Wilkins and Sieler...both good DT's especially Wilkins..
They beat the Dolphins earlier in the season because of Tyreke Hill's fumble..return for a TD that was a 10-14 point swing...Dolphins out gains and out 1st downed the chiefs in that game.
I agree with everything you stated in your post. As a Chief's fan of more than 50 years, it's hard to admit that I don't like our chances to win another SB, but I like our matchup this round. Maybe we'll get lucky again, and find out our receivers can catch the ball in 10 degree weather.
@davemsh
They beat the Dolphins earlier in the season because of Tyreke Hill's fumble..return for a TD that was a 10-14 point swing...Dolphins out gains and out 1st downed the chiefs in that game.
"Because of Tyreke's fumble"....So Tyreek's fumble is the only reason the Dolphins lost to KC then ???
So if he doesn't fumble the ball that gets returned for a TD this week then the Dolphins will surely win ???
Is that the correlation you are making here Dave ?
The Miami game they held KC to ZERO 2H points, I would've expected to see a stat line where they outgained them in the game. Problem is, that was right when Fangio's defense was getting the most healthy they had been all season up to that point. Now they are even more beat up on defense than they were at that point. Not looking good for Miami backers....
@kcblitzkrieg
They lost 21-14?????? Hill Fumbled on the Chiefs 30 yard line and Chiefs returned it for a TD...That is a minimum a 10 point swing...How much did they lose by? .KC could not move the ball all game. They had ZERO points and under 70 yards 2nd half.. Last drive of the game under 2 minutes.....Dolphins drove down to the Chiefs 30 yard line..then messed up fumbled bad snap
@davemsh
Dave.... KC was up 14-0 before that TD made it 21-0
A common mistake I see day in and day out here is the statement of fact / correlation of why teams lose (or win) based on one single play of the game at that given point of the game.
Never mind the fact that KC was up 14-0 on Miami. That fumble return for TD, making it 21-0, also affected how the game flow went from that point on. That is, how both KC and Miami made in-game adjustments to what they were doing and how they were doing it. Offensive play calls, run/pass splits, defensive coverages, etc. etc.
Point is, it is absolutely ridiculously wrong to cap postgame based on the isolation of one particular play sequence in the 2nd quarter. You, me and everyone else here cannot realistically say how that game would've played out if the fumble had not been returned. Just like if Mahomes would have thrown a pick 6 in the 2Q instead of a TD, we don't know how the players and coaches would've operated and played out that football game.
On the flipside, for arguments sake, let's say KC was up by 1 point 28-27 with a minute left in the game. Miami is driving down the field and Tua / Tyreke have had no problem moving the ball on KC and scoring points. They are on the 18 yard line and Tua throws an out route to Hill on the sideline but just before he tries to get out of bounds he fumbles the ball and it is returned for a TD. Game over, 35-27. In this example, your statement of "Tyreek only lost because of that fumble for a TD" is very in play and hard to argue.
What actually happened though in real life, does not. Best of luck with your Phins wager, I'd get the 4 now or maybe wait for a 4.5 on game day
@kcblitzkrieg
It was 21-14 late 3rd. absolutely that was the deciding big play...Chiefs could not move the ball all 2nd half...Up 7 u would think they would at least try and score right? So in a close game 7 points with 1 quarter to go..u telling me that the Hill Fumble 10 point swing late 2nd quarter was NOT the major deciding factor? U may have a point if KC put up another 7-14 points in the 2nd half and was going to win anyway and the Hill 10 point swing was less irrelevant....They got shut down 2nd half not because they were up big and were just running clock..but because just could not move the ball and Dolphins D shut them down.....Less than 60 yards 2nd half.....Dolphins from the mid 2nd quarter on moved the ball at will...4 Drives inside the KC 30 yard line...2 TD's ..1 fumble return for a TD by KC and a turnover on down by snap fumble on the last drive at the KC 30.. Hilarious that u don't think a 10 point swing in a close 7 point game start of the 4th was not the deciding factor...Chiefs were up 21-7 and still could not score..up 21-14..and still could not score..It was close defensive game...
Here is how the first game actually went:
The Chiefs slightly outplayed the Dolphins. Chiefs had 21-0 lead at the half and they sat on it. You mentioned the Dolphins fumble returned for a TD, but didn't mention Mahomes lost fumble recovered by Phins at Chiefs 20 yard line and scored a TD 3 plays later. The Dolphins had 25 more total yards than the Chiefs. First Downs are a meaningless stat. It's often better to have fewer First Downs if the Yards Per Play is decent. Tua played like crap, and Mahomes played a little above average. Miami had the superior run game.
Mahomes Passer Rating 105.6
Tua Passer Rating 87.0
@Jimmy_Cats
U make no sense...A fumble return for 70 yards...is NOT the same as a fumble by Maholmes on his on 30 yard line..Dolphins still had to score a TD and drive 30 yards in a defensive game......How often do u see a 70 yard fumble recover and return off a lateral by a chefs player for a TD...Even if they just recover the fumble and not score a TD for 70 yards...It is 14-0 at the half...U acting like 70 yard fumble returns are common when dolphins at minimum was getting 3 points to end the half...Then u comparing Maholmes fumble on his own 30 yard line like He was at the Dolphins 30 yard line about to score......Did the Dolphins return that fumble for a 30 yard TD?....LOL..Maholmes had 185 yards passing..Only reason his passer rating was higher was because TUA had a Fumble bad snap to end the game in the 4th on the Center and Maholmes had 1 more passing TD..Stats were almost identical with Tua more passing yards..
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