DK NFL Wildcard Round

Jaguars ML +100

So last night the Jags were +1 opened at PK, this morning around 7 am pacific went up to +2, ML +114( or +112 I think) I was thinking to lay +2 and the ML at this time but gave it an hour to settle and maybe hope it goes to +2.5 and now it's at a PK. That forced me to play my hand now. Maybe it will go back to +1 or +2 later who knows I can always bet it again if it does. Anyway...

Sure this Jaguars team is young and inexperienced but don't let that fool you. This Jags defense is underrated and a rising talent and for one home playoff game they should be able to hang for 4 quarters against a sometimes hot, sometimes cold Chargers offense. I'm not gonna break this game down too deep. These teams are very similar and nearly equal talent wise reason why game is a PK'em, it wouldn't surprise me if it comes down to a last possession type game. This is where I think the Jags have the advantage: in coaching, defense and running game. Turnovers will also be a big factor too as both teams are capable of mucking things up at the wrong time.

I get the impression that Brandon Staley is a bad gambler and relies too much on analytics goes for 4th down for the sake of going for it cuz the numbers say it's the right thing to do. Doug Pederson has a better "feel" for when to go for it although he too sometimes overdoes it. After all Pederson is the one who started all that shit! And Staley is just a copycat!

Chargers inability to stop the running game also concerns me. I may be old school but in colder weather playoff games I will take teams that can play defense and run the ball over the finesse teams almost all the time. Sure you still need balanced offense and passing to win in this league but teams that are in the lead are suppose to run the ball to close out games and wear the opponent down. I'm not sure Chargers can do neither they are way too pass happy even with a lead. 

The Jaguars blew the Chargers out early in season but am fully aware that Herbert's ribs were killing him at the time and so puzzling why they even started him. Yesterday was a reminder of Chargers questionable decision making. Why play the starters for 3.5 quarters in a meaningless game and get 2 important players hobbled off the field. Mike Williams is still on track to play but that looked bad, or bad look on Staley rather. Chargers always seem to be one play away from a freak injury to a key player from happening

For those reasons I can't put my money on Chargers. I know most will gravitate towards stud Justin Herbert and the more well known players on the Chargers. My initial lean was Chargers but after processing what I've seen lately I will go the opposite. Should be a closer game than last time either way now that Herbert is healthy and ready to rock. Just better hope Staley doesn't get in the way.. 

EDIT: Saw that William Hill currently has +1 and Even moneyline, I'll take the even 

For some reason...i feel underdogs cover this weekend....Keep the plays coming DK...

also alot of Unders might be in play also...

man do I wish Lamar was not suckered into this contract game my suspicion is he's not even as injured physically as much as he is mentally over this guaranteed money.  look at where the "guaranteed money QB's" are this season, after they signed the contracts.  on their sofas watching after pretty miserable showings.  really frustrating no idea how to play the Ravens.

looking forward to a great playoff season, just not sure it will be for our Ravens.

I think it will be half and half. Under is a strong consideration for alot of these games especially primetime 

DK...what's your lean on SF/Seattle and Giants/Vikings?

I will bite regardless. I Just put another playoff future on Ravens +2400 to win AFC, +5500 to win the ship and probably the last time I do for awhile cuz I have no idea what the future holds for this team after this season and am a bit burned out with them already. Ravens had their championship window(2019 & 2020 was their best opportunity) and I think this could be the end of the tunnel right here. If I were Lamar I would play.. He would do a great disservice to this organization if he is doing this for selfish reasons. He could silence his doubters right now if he took the Ravens to the Super bowl. Not sure if he could win the title however. could foresee Ravens perfect 2-0 SB record ruined by Lamar just a gut feeling but man if he were to win it all he could command any fucking dollar sign he wants even more than what he was initially asking for. That's the way it should be.. win the trophy collect the prize. Doesn't even have to play for the Ravens again after winning it all can get his big money elsewhere. Lamar is looking at the short view rather than the longview. 

I'm leaning SF I know it's alot of points but just don't see how Niners will be stopped on the ground and SF defense will get some turnover off Geno. And I will take the Giants to make it close. Vikings are too lucky for their own good. 

I’d jump on the ravens line .. if we find out Lamar is going to play the line will plummet. I have to believe he will play. 

i was looking at Niners 1st half -6......

DK, best of the luck for the Wild Card round! 

@WilliamMunny

 Yes I am in agreement. 

@lmb4321

 Yea that should be a strong consideration too

@Europa

 Gl Europa. It's playoff time! 

Definitely looks to be the right side. Chargers appear to be the most fraudulent team on the AFC side, but still have to look more deeply into this matchup.

In terms of the coaching matchup, this might be the most lopsided matchup in this round.

Agreed. Former player, playoff experience and Super Bowl winning coach against coaching nerd with limited playing experience. Will be interesting to see what kind of situational awareness Staley will have in first playoff game as coach... 

This doesn't sound like Mike Williams will be 100% come Saturday night. Of course, Staley is downplaying the injury and saying he expects Williams to return to practice. I don't doubt that. X-rays were negative and no muscle damage reported. But this was no doubt a bad/deep bruise that would be akin to taking a bad charley horse right in the thigh. 

 https://twitter.com/TheFantasyPT/status/1612546078590509081

49ers -10

i understand the risks of taking the public side like the 49ers and also double digit favorites in general, in the playoffs no less, but at the same time don't want to completely base my bets on who public is on or trying to be on the right side of the fix. However, I'll let my guard down just this once as I usually don't like to play big favorites and will go with my gut here. They say the team that usually wins outright, whether it be dog or fave, most likely covers(80% of the time?) We shall find out. In that case I like the 49ers here to just win and possibly get the cover. Trying to keep it simple..

I could see a couple reasons for taking the Seahawks... 1.) Seahawks and Pete Carroll are 49er killers and have usually played their best games against 49ers, even moreso as underdogs(except this season worth noting), and also own the h2h battle since Carroll took over. 2.) Geno Smith has been a feel good underdog story for the Seahawks who took a team that wasn't suppose to compete for the playoffs and got them there. Geno Smith is also a decent cover when put in the underdog role(except against the 49ers). He is currently 20-13-2 ATS as a dog, 9-5 dog ats as a seahawk. Also remembered they made a big deal that Geno covered 9 straight games from his last 3 games as Jets starter thru his journeyman backup years and arrival to Seahawks before the streak ended in week 2 against the 49ers. 3.) It's a divisional rivalry, thats alot of points! Isn't that what they say in regular season so the same should apply to the playoffs? 4.) Geno Smith finally gets his first career playoff game but so is Brock Purdy and he is a rookie! Usually rookies don't fare well??

Anyways, 49ers are 8-1 SU at home this season and are unusually dominant for a Shanahan-led 49er team that had been so-so at home for the past 5 years prior to 2022 but are beating teams by an average margin of 17.5 points. With a line of -10 it makes sense that 49ers should rightfully so be double digit home favorites. 49ers under Shanahan have usually been average in those situations. They were 0-3-1 ATS as DD faves during that Super Bowl 2019 season. since 2021 they have covered 3 of their last 4 games as DD fave. In the series the team that has been installed DD home faves(mainly all Seahawks in this instance) have gone 4-0-1 ATS since 2013. Perhaps tables have turned here and 49ers will be getting payback for all the damage inflicted by the Seahawks over the years. 

Don't really see how the Seahawks can go toe to toe with the Niners for 60 minutes against their physical run game plus ballhawking defense and not expect the Niners to win by at least double digits. Remember, Seahawks lost in San Fran by 20 pts when Trey Lance was under center and that San Fran team wasn't completely healthy at the time or playing like what they are now. Maybe I will give the benefit of the doubt and Purdy struggles a bit in his first playoff start and maybe gives up a few turnovers to keep things closer. In that case I could still see the Niners winning by exactly 10 to maybe 13 pts unless Niners somehow really overlook the Seahawks here or some nefarious action is taking place.. I expect Niners to go for the trifectal sweep here. 

Yea I'm sure he will be shot up . But we shall see how effective he will be. 

playoff dog teams that played a regular season game the previous game that are dogs >=+9 in a playoff game this week 1-9 ATS 

The only loser was completely unexpected as a 7 Win Home dog Seahawks team upset the Saints. The Saints in those days were not so good on the road but never should have lost.  Both Miami and Seattle had 9 wins this season. That makes this query 9-0 ATS.  No query is perfect forever.  Tampa won a home Superbowl game. That snapped an over 50 game trend that a host team won in their own stadium. 

This game is not on either of those levels.

I took the 49ers and if that fails I will ride the Bills 

I also have a nice parlay on all 6 games and the NCAA under  tonight.  I moved some lines around so the lines for both 10 point games are now -6.5.   Still a deep longshot to hit. 

Lets go Niners.

I dont like 9 team playoff teams that had a soft schedule because their previous season win total was very low.  That gets me away from the Jags here. Only +1 is terrible.

The problem for me is what you like its who ever wins the rushing yards battle.  Control the ball and the line and that teams wins. 

I agree. I'm thinking at least one double digit fave covers in this round. Can Dolphins cover vs Bills 3 in a row? Seems tough to do, That is my only question. They were playing in Buffalo not long ago in the frigid cold and held up their end but That was with Tua.. I just don't think they can do it with Skylar Thompson...  Will be interesting to see how the Dolphins QB situation plays out.

@Digitalkarma

 Good luck buddy!

Got a couple more plays in... 

Ravens +6.5

Ravens ML +256*small*

Question marks still abound over who will be the Ravens starting quarterback for the playoffs. Well, whoever it may be it's time to move forward and focus on the enemy. F that noise! Ravens have been counted out and left for dead, even by friends and foe alike but that's when they are at their most dangerous... If only for one game.. 

Joe Burrow will have some trouble upfront now without their standout right guard Alex Cappa while also losing their right tackle L'ael Collins a few weeks before. Ravens defense has picked up some steam since acquiring Roquan Smith in November. He was all over the field last Sunday with 16 tackles(12 unassisted) and is relishing another opportunity on enemy soil. Calais Campbell and Marcus Peters should be good to go. Ravens should give Burrow an equally tough time in the playoff rematch. Who knows how half-heartedly both teams played in the season finale but if it's anything like the week 5 meeting where they held Bengals to 17 pts and under 300 total yards when they didn't have either Roquan or Marcus Williams then I am liking the Ravens chances next Sunday. This will be the healthiest Ravens have been on defense all season. 

Now for the interesting part. what can the Ravens do on offense.. Bengals defense is no slouch either. Right now I am treating this game as if Tyler Huntley will be the presumed starter. Whoever is in, I expect the Ravens to stay committed to the running game. It's not like the Bengals defense are world beaters on the ground. Ravens strength is running the ball. Ravens have 4 capable running backs that they can pound by committee while keeping the stable healthy. The big focus will of course be on JK Dobbins. He rushed for 44 yards on 8 carries in the first meeting but wasn't fully healed from his ACL injury. Overall Dobbins has 22 carries for 238 yards lifetime against the Bengals but this will be a good run defense he will be running against unlike in 2020. If Dobbins has a good game then I believe the Ravens will win. Dobbins has come on strong lately now that his knee is fully cleaned up. 6.9 ypc since his return 5 weeks ago. 

Ravens also need to mix in some throws. Greg Roman needs to get a little more creative with the passing game maybe throw some more 2 tight end looks and get Isaiah Likely more involved alongside Mark Andrews. Bengals can be susceptible to tight ends. Ravens got a decent pass catcher in DeMarcus Robinson and if Sammy Watkins can get his act together that would be another potential target.

Ravens got the pieces to contend for a title but need better guidance from their coaches and most importantly Lamar Jackson to steer the ship. Maybe all it takes is a hated rival to come together as a group. That's about all I have to say

Add:

49ers 1st half -6.5

49ers tend to go up early in these home games and dictate the lead reason why they're 8-1 at home. I'm thinking they will be up early on the Seahawks again and be ahead at halftime by at least a touchdown. Of course it's the playoffs anything is possible then the opposite happens and they play from behind 

@Digitalkarma

The Ravens are the most physical team in the NFL IMO, Higgins and Burrow can attest to that. They matchup well against the Bengals and it will be a slug-fest. 
Lamar hasn't even practiced in a couple of months so Huntley is their best option going forward. Ravens are the junkyard dog backed into a corner and it wouldn't surprise me if they pulled the upset. As you mentioned they will have Dobbins and Andrews back and others are healthy. 

I can't think of a worse fate than facing Baltimore two weeks in a row and I sense my Superbowl future bet on Cincy is slipping away. 

Nice writeup and BOL