Detroit at Baltimore- Do the teams even matter?

Detroit -6 is being offered at +390 and the ML at +195.

So ask yourself:

Could you see Baltimore winning?

Could you see Detroit winning?

Could you see either of them winning by 6?

For me the answers are yes and without modeling, that is good enough to justify near 4 to 1 on a touchdown by a team that can score 52 and a team that can give up 41.

You'll get the best from each team tonight with a wide spectrum of possibilities.  Just pointing out 4 to 1, over the long term (1,000 bets), with either of these teams is a sound wager.

“A team that can score 52” yea against the bears

It's an interesting point.  Oddsmakers currently have this at a lofty 53.5 Total, and a -4.5 point spread for BAL.    Personally, I'd be surprised if this game plays within a margin of 6 points or less,  given the amount of scoring expected by the Bookmakers... I just don't see that much back and forth.  BAL allowed this to happen against BUFF Week 1, but I just can't see it tonight.  But, your thesis does make some sense, so if you think DET can win, go for the higher payout.   

Baltimore lost in NY not at home 

I'm surprised it happened by BAL... period.  Regardless of where that game against BUF was played.  

@unplucked_gem

 Great post. You make an excellent point. Its something I've thought about but rarely do I take advantage of Alt lines. For me personally I know its something I need to be incorporating into my game more. 

Let me say it a different way:

 Baltimore and Buffalo are 1/2 to win the superbowl at +500/+450

Eagles and Packers tied 3rd at +700

Detroit is tied for 4th with KC at +1400

So, you're getting +390 for less than a touchdown in a matchup of two top 5 teams.

Host this game in Detroit, it'd be the same valid question on the other side.

Ultimately just trying to stimulate thought on value vs. the typical right side / wrong side tunnel track we follow.

https://www.covers.com/sport/football/nfl/matchup/359140/preview

"I'll say that probably the extra rest day, extra film, get a good feel for who we're playing against and go from there," Jackson told reporters Thursday of the success.

His Monday Night Stats are very impressive 

"Baltimore has beaten the Lions five straight times and six of seven overall."

its not a victory lap, but a celebration for those with an open mind and  brave enough to take the journey.

+390 with virtual 0 handicapping.

38 isnt 52, but it's good enough.

Well played!  

@unplucked_gem

 Well, after our discussion earlier today I placed a handful of wagers on tonight’s game. And believe it or not, I hadn’t even seen this thread.

Detroit +4.5 1u

Detroit -1 .25u

Detroit -3 .25u

Detroit -4 .25u

Detroit -6.5 .25u

In your eyes it might be a little bit of a cop out to take the +4.5 and -1, but as someone new to this strategy it felt…comfortable. I felt good about Detroit tonight and for the exact reasons you mentioned above, I felt good about the alternate lines. I appreciate that you took the time to explain your strategy and why you stand by it. I ended up more than tripling my initial investment. Cheers brother 

“I don’t let the books tell me who the favorite is” -unplucked_gem

@brn2loslive2win

Feels good right?

only suggestion I'd offer is to consider dropping the -1 and the -4 as they're not doing too much for you and if worst case scenario hits and gains on your +4.5 are wiped out.  Dropping those two, you still profit. 5 less juice.

I'd also be conscientious on playing -6 vs. -6.5 here as you're getting 4 to 1 and a loss on the half point (two point conversion almost hit) would be brutal. So at the price its a bit of unnecessary risk tying into the "key numbers"

For me it maybe would differ maybe if the price was different and it wasn't two top 5 teams.

Great job experimenting outside your comfort level.  A well rounded sharp bettor is something the books fear.

@brn2loslive2win

"In your eyes it might be a little bit of a cop out to take the +4.5"

Also, definitely not.  We (I) have no stat model data yet, so no ability to objectively handicap and going on subjective handicapping which inherently has bias.

So I have no issue with the caliber of teams to give yourself the best chance to succeed.  While it is about winning money, it's definitely also about not losing money.

If we had modeling that said Detroit -13, then I'd feel differently.

@unplucked_gem

 I was already predicting the “free TD” and 2pc as soon as the lions went up 14! Thankfully they failed but you’re right, pushing to 6.5 may have been a mistake. But!, I can’t remember the odds on -7.5 but even a tiny piece on that number would have been a pretty sweet hit. I look to continue experimenting with this next week. Im considering laying 13-16 with Detroit next week vs Cleveland and up to 6 with Baltimore. Any opinion on those? 

I know that many will think that Cleveland could be extremely tough on defense and rightfully so. But the way that Detroit can get after the qb it could be brutal for the browns next week. When Goff plays at home it’s extremely difficult to hold the lions under 30 points. And as I mentioned in another thread, is it possible that the lions are actually better with the loss of the two coordinators? That the loss to GB was just a poor performance and that the Lions are on their way to a 13ish win season? Also looking hard at Detroit over 10.5 wins at -130…

@unplucked_gem

 Also looking at laying up to 10 with the Rams. Any thoughts?

Let me get back with you when the model finally runs this week.  

Lol, I posted in another thread you're in about that late TD and 2pt.

Ironically the extra Detroit TD instead of knee put us in peril.

Are you referring to the “extra” completely unnecessary touchdown?!? Montgomery has to be smarter than that. Imagine if Baltimore somehow pulls out a miracle victory and Montgomery is to blame?

 I also got burned on the “extra” TD that the Eagles decided to score. Can’t make this shit up man.

Yes!  Great thread.  I would love to see more content and discussion like this on this site.  Unfortunately, it's rare these days.