Den-Pitt off the board??

I completely agree.  I'm reading that the public is on Car while sharps are on Sea but I don't see how thats the case.  Seattle seems to be a VERY public dog this week, and I like how the spread has plummeted to Car -1.  Car will expose Seattle's O-line woes and have RW scrambling all day.  Car should take care of business at home by at least 7 and I'll be playing the alt spread for sure.

Chiefs are another public darling.  ESP without Maclin or a limited Maclin I don't think they have a shot.  Pats should handle them rather easily.

GB/Zona is tough.  I do agree and think GB had a favorable matchup lw v the Skins but they really are not a great team this year.  I hate laying chalk but I see a pissed off Zona team coming out and wrecking havoc.  Everyone questioning their Defense now w/o Matheiu, but it shouldn't be an issue.

Last game very tough with so many variables with injuries.  Again I play a majority of dogs and I'm digging for a reason to back Pitt but can't really find one.  Landry Jones has played fine when hes been asked to come in, but usually when people don't give a team ANY shot, the underdog usually finds a way to surprise everyone.  I wouldn't sleep on Tomlin and I don't think Kubiak is anything special.  Its funny how this situation is flipped from the Tebow playoff game a few years ago.  Denver was the 6.5 pt dog with the back-up/inexperienced QB playing vs Pitt and they managed to pull the upset, now the script is flipped.  Want to take Pitt but likely staying away.  

How you been, bro?  

Any local Boston guys have a better forecast? 

When I locked up NE -4, I called it assuming rain and wind. In that case, who does that favor? I think u can make an argument either way, if it turns to a run run run sloppy game, I'm leaning towards NE. I think Coach B will have a great defensive plan where he will be able to stuff the run completely, while spying Smith and keeping contain so he doesn't beat them with his legs, and all while keeping Kelce bottled up. It doesn't look like Maclin will be suiting up and even if he does, I can't imagine he's anywhere close to 100%. 

Now if NE gameplans Kelce like I think they will, and u take Maclin out of the offense....no Maclin....doesn't leave many options for Smith outside of screens, swings, and dump offs to their running backs. There is a young WR on the Chiefs who has stepped up this year(can't think of his name) but I can't imagine he makes too much of an impact. I think coaching wins this in the end. 

On the other side, we all know what Brady can do in monsoon conditions in the playoffs(cornholed the Colts last year). Will the balls be inflated to his liking so he can make throws in that rain and wind? Lol, we will see. 

One last thing. I believe Suuma had a fantastic thread about the Pats pretty much having 4 weeks off to rest up and get healthy for the playoffs. Watching the dolphin game again, I realize now that they weren't in that game to destroy. Coach B and company made sure that they showed NOTHING for future reference. I think they possibly thought they were good enough to throw out a halfa$$ed plan and still win, but that wasn't meant to be. Anyway, normally when a team starts resting players weeks 16-17 and then has rhe bye and 3-4 weeks off....normally I view that as a negative thing. The team that really comes to mind was the Packers in Dec 2011 into Jan 2012. 

Packers started testing guys in week 16. Week 17 the entire team did not play. They had the bye first round of the playoffs, and hosted the Giants at Lambeau and I want to say they were -10 or maybe -11. Packers had just crushed the Giants a few weeks back and almost was the game that booted them from the playoffs, but Giants rallied and every game in December was basically a playoff game for them. I believe they had Atlanta first round and dominated them. Came into Lambeau battle tested, while GB were pretty much in training camp the last month.....and it wasnt until after halftime that GB realized what hit them and by then it was too late. 

So normally, all that rest is a bad thing IMO. This feels different though. Not that McCarthy/Philbin/Capers are bad coaches or anything, but I think Bill B and his crew aren't gonna let NE come out flat and they know exactly what's needed to be done to come out of the tunnel tomorrow at 4:30pm already in 5th gear. The Pats injury problems were also a much bigger issue and that entire o-line, entire WR Corp, and a handful of key defensive players really needed that time off. And they are all healthy and ready to go now. 

Pats 31-13. 

Great thoughts bro. 

I jumped on NE early at -5. Going to get shafted with the line but I think they win comfy. Kansas City is not going to score in this game. The offense is not built to play with great QBs. They have not had to play from behind during their win streak over bad teams. Maclin will not be factor even if he plays. Belichick with take away Kelce. What other weapons does KC have? This is the game where they miss Jamaal Charles. West and Ware have been decent fill ins rushing the ball...but they aren't Charles. Charles is a weapon on every play. He catches a ton of passes whereas the other guys don't. KC doesn't have the screen game without Charles and that's huge here against NE's pass rush. Charles had 21 catches in 4.5 games this year. West and Ware have combined for 26 all season. I think people forget too how good NE's D was when healthy. They get everyone back this week. Everyone has focused on the injuries on offense, but only two defensive players have started every game.

I understand KC has a really solid D. They could hold the Pats down, but I still think NE finds ways to get points. They scored 27 points every game this year with Edelman, Gronk, and Amendola in there. They also won't give the ball away. Houston just gave the ball away last week. KC didn't really force those TO, they were just awful throws. Brady won't make those mistakes. 

Think NE covers even if they score 20.

The Packers.....recently beat up horribly by the Cards. Rodgers sacked something like 8 times. Probably the reason I saw him with happy feet hearing footsteps every time he stepped back to pass the last couplr games for the first time in his career. Huge blow out. I don't think that happens again. One, the backup OT that was responsible for pretty much every sack that game....that stiff is back where he belongs.....back on the bench. Two, after a slow start, Rodgers finally started trusting his line again mid game against the Skins, and it showed. I also liked some of the play calling as the game progressed. Actually threw the old fashioned tried and true, simple as can be SLANT pass when defenders were sitting off in coverage. 

Zona's a good all around team, but I think the Packers defense is very underrated in all the expert matchup things I see. Assuming Rodgers doesn't give them short fields all day long and free points on fum6, the cards are gonna have to EARN the points they score. Arizona is gonna have a hard time running the ball, and if Capers has the run stuffed and has guys keeping an eye on the RB out of the backfield, it will be completely on Palmers arm to win this game. And he's a worthy QB, but the way Seattle beat them up week 17, maybe there some doubt lingering there. After a season of almost flawless offensive football, suddenly right when confidence is so important....the Seahawks crushed them. 

And speaking of confidence and pressure, 2-3 weeks ago, I say the pressure is squarely on the backs of the Pack who have struggled mightily pretty much all season. Crazy how ONE game for each respective team can change that(at least in my mind). Palmer might have some doubts, and at a time he's about to play his first playoff game in a decade. At the same time, zona loses a very important player and leader on their defense. Meanwhile, pack o-line get healthy, Rodgers has some faith in his line as last week progressed, and yes the Wash D is weak, but it was nice seeing A-Rod have his game on again. 

Losing Adams hurts. These WR just don't get any frigging separation from defenders, and they are thin enough without their #2 going down. Hopefully Starks and(Christ i can't think of their other RB name) do some thunder and lightning and force Zona to bring an extra guy or two into the box where Rodgers now has some room downfield to make some throws. Randall Cobb MUST stand up and play. Outside of Starks, he's the only real guy on the team that can change the game in a play on speed alone. Get the ball in his hands! Throw it deep and maybe get some PI if they can't connect. Bubble screens, quick slants, wildcat, I wanna see him touch the ball 12-15 times this game. 

EDIT: EDDIE LACY the RB. LOL. 

So in a huge game, I'm gonna take a shot with arguably the best QB in the world in a familiar place(the playoffs) getting a TOUCHDOWN and against a guy who in reality is playing his first playoff game(I think Palmer was KO'ed first play of that game in 2006 right?). 

Appreciate the insight LC.  I hope you're right! 

Okay the seahawk game has been discussed ad nauseum. Looking at things, this does look to be the PERFECT spot for Carolina, but like Earth and I think Beginner Boy said....we are guys who have ridden the Seahawks last few years. They have been good to us. Gonna stick with a squad who has been good to me. I got a bad line, and I expect it closes well over +1, but like GB, just want to lock it up and stop overthinking. 

Carolina backers, best of luck. I completely and totally see the allure of them, and regardless of who cashes this weekend, let's just see a good football game where the PLAYERS determine the outcome of the game, and not the zebras who single handedly took Cincinnati out of the picture. BOL to all. 

Denver. Not much to say. Big Ben looks to not be 100% and possibly won't be able to fire deep. No Brown who IMO is the best WR on the planet the last few years. No Williams most likely so some inexperienced backs not only running the ball or catching passes, but more importantly in charge of picking up a VICIOUS Denver pass rush and trying to protect their QB who is beat the F up at the moment. Peyton Manning. Maybe he's old, maybe he's 65% of the guy he was even 2 years ago. But he's fresh. He's still got his brains and his game at the line of scrimmage pre-play. Pitt isn't the best at defending the pass, and manning might be able to carve this team up. 

Denver's defense is mighty. Fantastic at playing the pass. Insane pass rush. I'll give Pitt props for how they came back and beat them last month, not to me the FIRST half of that game was the true representation to what will happen in the future. That second half was insane and one of those momentum games where it just couldn't be stopped. Plus every bounce, every whistle, every single thing in the world went Pitt's way. Can't imagine that happens again. 

GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND THANK U ALL FOR PASSING ALONG YOUR INSIGHT AND THOUGHTS! Pro forum has really stepped up, and I'm proud to be a small cog amongst a really intelligent and good group of people. Doesn't seem to be any skumbags or trolls or touts anywhere in sight. Just some good guys who know the sport and want to help each other make money. As long as I'm on this earth betting football, I will be on here to try to contribute and be a part of the community the best I can to GIVE back whatever I can from all the great information I TAKE on a weekly basis for 5 months a year every year. 

Bol to all. 

My card:

All chalk.

Touched on NE and CAR earlier. 

.

Really like Denver the more I look at it. Everything lined up great. Manning not only got the time to rest (he was great after the bye this year), but he also gets a bad secondary. The time gave him extra time to watch film too. He may be limited physically, but he's cerebral as they come and the extra time he's had to watch film and diagnose Pittsburgh's blitzes is probably worth a couple points. I'm not expecting much from the Pittsburgh O. They had their day against the Bronco defense earlier in the year. Now Denver is rested and PIT beat to hell. One thing to watch here too is the 3rd string RB on 3rd downs in pass protection vs this Broncos rush. That could be a disaster with Ben hurt back there. Brown is a monumental loss for the offense. 7-9 is a lot to lay with the Broncos O so I went ML.

Not sure about the spread in GB/ARZ but IMO Arizona is athe superior team. Laying 7 to elite QB is usually very tough to do so I went ML there too. I took GB last week big because it was a superb matchup. Aaron Rodgers has been bad all year. I don't expect him or the WR to turn it around when they've been bad for months. Rodgers is 30th out of 34 QB in completion %, 26th in yards per attempt, and 15th in QB rating. His TD/INT still looks good but he's been very pedestrian this year. Adams is a tough loss because Peterson trails every teams' #1 WR no matter where they line up. Which means he'll be all over Cobb so the depth without Adams takes a big hit as he would have been in line for a lot of targets since Peterson has been a stud this year and will blanket Cobb. Cobb had 3 catches for 15 yards in the first meeting. Can't help but cheer for the McCarthy line plunges he'll call all game with Lacy too. I think GB is in tough to score.

GL all. 

I really want to take pack +7 here and that juicy ML but can't get myself to do it.

Rolling with the Over, especially GB TT O 20.5.   Thats a great # for Rodgers in a dome, doesn't matter who they are playing IMO.

Sea 17 Stl 23

Sea 31 Stl 34

Sea 20 Stl 6

Sea 26 Stl 28

The St Louis DL is disruptive obviously, anything else to takeaway from this history, similarity or difference to Carolina?

Looking forward to discussing the Champ games in your thread this week, glyde. Great stuff by all this past week.

Down 31-0 I was receving texts from a bunch of people. I told them make sure not to turn the game off, Wilson would bring them back, no doubt about it. Just shows the greatness of Wilson to bring them back and get within 15 yards of pushing all my Sea +3 bets for me. Pounded them in game +27 (lol) +21, +20.5, +19.5, +17.5, +14, +10.5 and +7.5 and obvious ingame MLs upto +850. Still ended up losing money with my +3/ML and Seahawks superbowl props and NFC championship props and such. Just a remarkable day in the guts of the Hawks and Wilson that would have been a story of a lifetime had they come back to win. It wasn't to be. I truly believe if Seattle had 1 more timeout (or Carolina doesn't convert 1 of their 2 third down conversions by a matter of inches) Seahawks comeback to win that game.

Seattle will be back. Address the o-line, and let Lane walk and bring in a better corner and they will be right back next year. I will be rooting for them when my Fins inevitably out of it by December. Congrats Panthers backers, you were on the right side. Just know Sunday is another example why I don't bet against the Seahawks. Down 31-0 against a great team playing perfect at home, and that lead was one timeout or a few inches away from being blown.

Good week glyde. Just ranting so people know I don't run away when my opinion is wrong. Which it was. 

All chalk moving on, can't say I'm surprised.  You really can't say it every year, but this year I genuinely believe ANY of these 4 teams left can easily win it.   

Great thread this past week, good discussion and picks all around.  Looking fwd to kicking off the Championship round discussion.