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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    Caleb Williams IS NOT HIM

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    smartbets
    NONEED4LUCK
    ______P______
    BlackwaterOP
    Flyguy1700
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    12 Next Last»
     
    smartbets
    smartbets
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    Posted: Dec. 26, 2024 - 8:39 PM ET #1

    paint_help

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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    paint_help

     
    NONEED4LUCK
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    Posted: Dec. 26, 2024 - 8:41 PM ET #2

    Longest stretch without and INT for a rookie QB at like 325 attempts. 

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    Longest stretch without and INT for a rookie QB at like 325 attempts. 

     
    ______P______
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    Posted: Dec. 26, 2024 - 8:41 PM ET #3

    He'll be good once he has the staff in place.  Pump the breaks pal

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    He'll be good once he has the staff in place.  Pump the breaks pal

     
    BlackwaterOP
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    Posted: Dec. 26, 2024 - 8:43 PM ET #4

    Caleb Williams is bad.  

    clover

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    Caleb Williams is bad.  

    clover

     
    Flyguy1700
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    Posted: Dec. 26, 2024 - 8:45 PM ET #5

    Low iq qb

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    Low iq qb

     
    smartbets
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    Posted: Dec. 26, 2024 - 8:46 PM ET #6

    Quote Originally Posted by NONEED4LUCK:

    Longest stretch without and INT for a rookie QB at like 325 attempts.
    watch him, reads are slow. no pace, he isn't passing the eye testan_light

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    Quote Originally Posted by NONEED4LUCK:

    Longest stretch without and INT for a rookie QB at like 325 attempts.
    watch him, reads are slow. no pace, he isn't passing the eye testan_light

     
    Playalistik
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    Posted: Dec. 26, 2024 - 8:47 PM ET #7

    @NONEED4LUCK

     That’s because the passes are no where near anyone, receivers or defenders 

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    @NONEED4LUCK

     That’s because the passes are no where near anyone, receivers or defenders 

     
    thatruth976
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    Posted: Dec. 26, 2024 - 9:37 PM ET #8

    @BlackwaterOP

     Heisman winner is in the Big Show.

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    @BlackwaterOP

     Heisman winner is in the Big Show.

     
    befus
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    Posted: Dec. 27, 2024 - 12:34 AM ET #9

    He looked pretty confused at times, can't say as I blame in the league that he plays in now. He needs a really good quarterback coach and some time to be worked with and I think he'll be okay.

    People rarely do that which is not expected of them.
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    He looked pretty confused at times, can't say as I blame in the league that he plays in now. He needs a really good quarterback coach and some time to be worked with and I think he'll be okay.

     
    justliketoplay
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    Posted: Dec. 27, 2024 - 12:42 AM ET #10

    He can go 1000 pass attempts without an interception who gives a flying fuk he sucks!

    Never scrambles, always stays in the pocket, rarely runs out of trouble, never throws the ball out of bounds and or away when being chased and opts for getting sacked and most importantly can't read the defense and call an audible whatsoever.

    I don't understand what if anything that people see in this kid he's pathetic...terrible offensive line or not.peace

     

    When I win Money it's my money and NOT house money
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    He can go 1000 pass attempts without an interception who gives a flying fuk he sucks!

    Never scrambles, always stays in the pocket, rarely runs out of trouble, never throws the ball out of bounds and or away when being chased and opts for getting sacked and most importantly can't read the defense and call an audible whatsoever.

    I don't understand what if anything that people see in this kid he's pathetic...terrible offensive line or not.peace

     

     
    smellybunty
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    Posted: Dec. 27, 2024 - 12:53 AM ET #11

    Correct. Pronouns are she/her

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    Correct. Pronouns are she/her

     
    Logic123
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    Posted: Dec. 27, 2024 - 7:45 AM ET #12

    CJ Stroud is not him either. Ugh muthafooie.

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    CJ Stroud is not him either. Ugh muthafooie.

     
    Bitters
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    Posted: Dec. 27, 2024 - 8:21 AM ET #13

    IT's not hard to do when passing behind the line OF SCRIMMAGE for 3-4 yard gains? Shit throw one of us back there to do that. How does a Professional Football team not score a 1st half TD in like 9 weeks straight or something?

    Caleb was not the answer Chicago needed, they needed an Offensive line for the past 2 decades. Doesn't matter who is behind the center with No offensive line, which means it also takes out the running game as well. The Bears are in Complete disaray and will be next season as well without an O-LINE and who is in charge, Bear Down Chicago Bears!

     

    BITTERMAN:

    new_devil

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    IT's not hard to do when passing behind the line OF SCRIMMAGE for 3-4 yard gains? Shit throw one of us back there to do that. How does a Professional Football team not score a 1st half TD in like 9 weeks straight or something?

    Caleb was not the answer Chicago needed, they needed an Offensive line for the past 2 decades. Doesn't matter who is behind the center with No offensive line, which means it also takes out the running game as well. The Bears are in Complete disaray and will be next season as well without an O-LINE and who is in charge, Bear Down Chicago Bears!

     

    BITTERMAN:

    new_devil

     
    Fuse
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    Posted: Dec. 27, 2024 - 8:31 AM ET #14

    Tough peace_5

    Learn, be content and stay disciplined.
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    Tough peace_5

     
    DongMattingly
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    Posted: Dec. 27, 2024 - 10:25 AM ET #15

    @NONEED4LUCK

     True, but he also refuses to throw downfield.  His stats on passes 15+ yards are some of the worst of the decade.  All checkdowns = no INTs

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    @NONEED4LUCK

     True, but he also refuses to throw downfield.  His stats on passes 15+ yards are some of the worst of the decade.  All checkdowns = no INTs

     
    Raiders22
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    Posted: Dec. 27, 2024 - 7:44 PM ET #16

    I think it is a matter of perception.  The numbers do not seem that bad.

     

    In the last 10 years there have been 305 times a QB threw downfield 15 or more yards at least 50 times.

     

    I included some seasons of when guys were younger that are currently playing.  Some older guys that were playing and some of the guys that are looked at as good now when they were younger.

     

    222nd  2024 season C. Williams 77.7 rating

     

    295th 2018 Allen 49.6

    254th 2019 Allen 68.5

    204th 2023 Allen 79.7

    271st 2016 E Manning 60.4

    278th 2015 P. Manning 58.7

    284th 2021 Lawrence 54.0

    228th 2017 Newton 75.9

    299th 2024 Richardson 47.9

    219th 2020 Goff 77.9

    220th 2019 Goff 77.9

    224th 2021 Ryan 77.3

    303rd 2022 Murray 34.1

    277th 2023 B Young 59.1

    282nd 2020 Burrow 58.1

    302nd 2023 Mahomes 36.3

    257th 2024 Mahomes 67.8

     

    Compared to:

     

    1st 2023 Cousins 139.7

    2nd 2018 R Wilson 133.7

    3rd 2023 Prescott 133.7

    4th 2016 Ryan 133.5

    5th 2018 Brees 132.6

    6th 2016 Brady 131.0

     

    So, just by looking at the rating it does not look that bad.  Better than a lot of other guys that have vastly improved.  Some have not improved that much with just these criteria but are considered very good QBs.

    There is, quite obviously, more to the QB play than being efficient at throwing past 15 yards.  

     

    Amazingly enough, when you set it up as throwing 14 yards or less — C. Williams ranks 197th.  Not much better than the other category.

     

    But you do see a different batch of QBs at the top now.

    L. Jackson, Tannehill, Bridgewater, Schaub, etc.

    But you still have Rodgers, Brees, Mahomes and Allen near the top.

     

    So, if Williams improves as expected I think he will be fine.  His level of efficiency at distance and short throws are nearly the same compared to other QBs where you will see a difference.  

    Then you have examples, of some younger QBs improving as they age.

    Then you have some folks that did not improve with long throw efficiency, even though they are known for having a great arm.

     

    There is far more to the position than just long throws.  He does not have much time to go through progressions, but seems to do an okay job on the check downs.  He does take too many sacks and does not throw the ball away as much as he, maybe, should.  

     

    I did not expect much from him this season.  I do not like that the Bears keep drafting QBs instead of developing them and getting better personnel around them.

    But for the expectations I had for him this season, I actually think he is slightly out-performing what I was expecting.

     

    I think folks wanted to compare him to Stroud’s season last year.  That is not realistic.

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    I think it is a matter of perception.  The numbers do not seem that bad.

     

    In the last 10 years there have been 305 times a QB threw downfield 15 or more yards at least 50 times.

     

    I included some seasons of when guys were younger that are currently playing.  Some older guys that were playing and some of the guys that are looked at as good now when they were younger.

     

    222nd  2024 season C. Williams 77.7 rating

     

    295th 2018 Allen 49.6

    254th 2019 Allen 68.5

    204th 2023 Allen 79.7

    271st 2016 E Manning 60.4

    278th 2015 P. Manning 58.7

    284th 2021 Lawrence 54.0

    228th 2017 Newton 75.9

    299th 2024 Richardson 47.9

    219th 2020 Goff 77.9

    220th 2019 Goff 77.9

    224th 2021 Ryan 77.3

    303rd 2022 Murray 34.1

    277th 2023 B Young 59.1

    282nd 2020 Burrow 58.1

    302nd 2023 Mahomes 36.3

    257th 2024 Mahomes 67.8

     

    Compared to:

     

    1st 2023 Cousins 139.7

    2nd 2018 R Wilson 133.7

    3rd 2023 Prescott 133.7

    4th 2016 Ryan 133.5

    5th 2018 Brees 132.6

    6th 2016 Brady 131.0

     

    So, just by looking at the rating it does not look that bad.  Better than a lot of other guys that have vastly improved.  Some have not improved that much with just these criteria but are considered very good QBs.

    There is, quite obviously, more to the QB play than being efficient at throwing past 15 yards.  

     

    Amazingly enough, when you set it up as throwing 14 yards or less — C. Williams ranks 197th.  Not much better than the other category.

     

    But you do see a different batch of QBs at the top now.

    L. Jackson, Tannehill, Bridgewater, Schaub, etc.

    But you still have Rodgers, Brees, Mahomes and Allen near the top.

     

    So, if Williams improves as expected I think he will be fine.  His level of efficiency at distance and short throws are nearly the same compared to other QBs where you will see a difference.  

    Then you have examples, of some younger QBs improving as they age.

    Then you have some folks that did not improve with long throw efficiency, even though they are known for having a great arm.

     

    There is far more to the position than just long throws.  He does not have much time to go through progressions, but seems to do an okay job on the check downs.  He does take too many sacks and does not throw the ball away as much as he, maybe, should.  

     

    I did not expect much from him this season.  I do not like that the Bears keep drafting QBs instead of developing them and getting better personnel around them.

    But for the expectations I had for him this season, I actually think he is slightly out-performing what I was expecting.

     

    I think folks wanted to compare him to Stroud’s season last year.  That is not realistic.

     
    CanadaCup
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    Posted: Dec. 27, 2024 - 7:57 PM ET #17

    Quote Originally Posted by ______P______:

    He'll be good once he has the staff in place.  Pump the breaks pal

    They talked crap about Josh Allen in his rookie season as well, and look at him now JA17 is the best quarterback in the NFL because it sure ain't Kermit or LaMar. Bears need to hire the best offensive coordinator like a Joe Brady along with a QB coach like Jordan Palmer to bring out the best in Williams.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ______P______:

    He'll be good once he has the staff in place.  Pump the breaks pal

    They talked crap about Josh Allen in his rookie season as well, and look at him now JA17 is the best quarterback in the NFL because it sure ain't Kermit or LaMar. Bears need to hire the best offensive coordinator like a Joe Brady along with a QB coach like Jordan Palmer to bring out the best in Williams.

     
    Raiders22
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    Posted: Dec. 27, 2024 - 9:12 PM ET #18

    @CanadaCup

     

    Quote Originally Posted by CanadaCup:

    Quote Originally Posted by ______P______: He'll be good once he has the staff in place.  Pump the breaks pal They talked crap about Josh Allen in his rookie season as well, and look at him now JA17 is the best quarterback in the NFL because it sure ain't Kermit or LaMar. Bears need to hire the best offensive coordinator like a Joe Brady along with a QB coach like Jordan Palmer to bring out the best in Williams.

    Okay.  I'll ask.  Why is he better than Mahomes, Burrow, or Jackson?

    I get that people love to watch him play because he is exciting.

    But is he really better overall?

    All three of them have better WAR rating this year than Allen does.

    Jackson and Burrow have better PAA/Play than he does.  Mahomes is right behind him.

    Jackson has far better ANY/A than him, Burrow is right behind him.

    Mahomes is still doing more with less than any of them and managing the team to wins.  

    For example, in a 1-score game (+/- 8 points) in the 2nd half:

    Burrow has a 120.6 rating, Jackson a 108.3 rating, and Allen a 107.4

    When they are behind in the 2nd half -- Burrow 114.8, Jackson 109.4, and Allen 71.3 (small sample size, but has to be looked at)

    When they are behind at any time -- Burrow 121.7, Jackson 107.0, and Allen 101.3.

    Under pressure rating -- Jackson 105.1, Burrow 103.3 (the top two QBs) and Allen 85.5 (5th).

     

    Yes, they are all 3 elite.  

    I could actually make the case that the distance between Burrow/Mahomes and Allen is further apart this year than the Allen and Goff/Hurts/Darnold group.

    But I like to watch him play and he has made improvements and Brady has helped the Offense, for sure.

     

    The issue is that this year a better case can be made that Jackson deserves the MVP than last year.  A better case can be made for Burrow than Allen.  A case can be made for Mahomes, simply because he is Mahomes and is doing more with less.

    But Allen will probably win it.  A large part of that is because people just think he finally 'deserves' it.  He is not necessarily outplaying the others and it cannot even be said he is more important to his team than the others are.

    This is not to take anything away from Allen because he is having a fantastic year and the team looks very good.

    But I am curious exactly why you think he is, 'for sure' better than the others.

    peace_5

     

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    @CanadaCup

     

    Quote Originally Posted by CanadaCup:

    Quote Originally Posted by ______P______: He'll be good once he has the staff in place.  Pump the breaks pal They talked crap about Josh Allen in his rookie season as well, and look at him now JA17 is the best quarterback in the NFL because it sure ain't Kermit or LaMar. Bears need to hire the best offensive coordinator like a Joe Brady along with a QB coach like Jordan Palmer to bring out the best in Williams.

    Okay.  I'll ask.  Why is he better than Mahomes, Burrow, or Jackson?

    I get that people love to watch him play because he is exciting.

    But is he really better overall?

    All three of them have better WAR rating this year than Allen does.

    Jackson and Burrow have better PAA/Play than he does.  Mahomes is right behind him.

    Jackson has far better ANY/A than him, Burrow is right behind him.

    Mahomes is still doing more with less than any of them and managing the team to wins.  

    For example, in a 1-score game (+/- 8 points) in the 2nd half:

    Burrow has a 120.6 rating, Jackson a 108.3 rating, and Allen a 107.4

    When they are behind in the 2nd half -- Burrow 114.8, Jackson 109.4, and Allen 71.3 (small sample size, but has to be looked at)

    When they are behind at any time -- Burrow 121.7, Jackson 107.0, and Allen 101.3.

    Under pressure rating -- Jackson 105.1, Burrow 103.3 (the top two QBs) and Allen 85.5 (5th).

     

    Yes, they are all 3 elite.  

    I could actually make the case that the distance between Burrow/Mahomes and Allen is further apart this year than the Allen and Goff/Hurts/Darnold group.

    But I like to watch him play and he has made improvements and Brady has helped the Offense, for sure.

     

    The issue is that this year a better case can be made that Jackson deserves the MVP than last year.  A better case can be made for Burrow than Allen.  A case can be made for Mahomes, simply because he is Mahomes and is doing more with less.

    But Allen will probably win it.  A large part of that is because people just think he finally 'deserves' it.  He is not necessarily outplaying the others and it cannot even be said he is more important to his team than the others are.

    This is not to take anything away from Allen because he is having a fantastic year and the team looks very good.

    But I am curious exactly why you think he is, 'for sure' better than the others.

    peace_5

     

     
    undermysac
    undermysac
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    Posted: Dec. 27, 2024 - 10:46 PM ET #19

    @CanadaCup

     What Lamar is doing this year is ridiculous. He should be the mvp.

    I think Allen is a baller, don't get me wrong. And not too long ago I also thought he was the best qb in the nfl. Until I started watching more Lamar games and looking at his #'s.

    Outstanding

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    @CanadaCup

     What Lamar is doing this year is ridiculous. He should be the mvp.

    I think Allen is a baller, don't get me wrong. And not too long ago I also thought he was the best qb in the nfl. Until I started watching more Lamar games and looking at his #'s.

    Outstanding

     
    Hawgwild32
    Hawgwild32
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    Posted: Dec. 27, 2024 - 11:46 PM ET #20

    Overhyped by our clueless mainstream sports media in college, now proving to be another lousy #1 draft pick. A QB coach won't help this genius.

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    Overhyped by our clueless mainstream sports media in college, now proving to be another lousy #1 draft pick. A QB coach won't help this genius.

     
    CanadaCup
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    Posted: Dec. 28, 2024 - 3:20 AM ET #21

    @Raiders22

     

    Look it at all the elite weapons Burrow's, Jackson, and Mahomes have compared to Allen? Pretty boy Joe isn't even going to make the playoffs with that amazing talent and don't tell me because of the Bengals defense because the Bills defense isn't much better. Who does Allen have; Cook, Cooper, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox, and a couple of 2nd tier weapons. Allen is doing more with less, that's what makes him better than all 3 you mentioned. peace_5

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    @Raiders22

     

    Look it at all the elite weapons Burrow's, Jackson, and Mahomes have compared to Allen? Pretty boy Joe isn't even going to make the playoffs with that amazing talent and don't tell me because of the Bengals defense because the Bills defense isn't much better. Who does Allen have; Cook, Cooper, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox, and a couple of 2nd tier weapons. Allen is doing more with less, that's what makes him better than all 3 you mentioned. peace_5

     
    Raiders22
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    Posted: Dec. 28, 2024 - 12:11 PM ET #22

    @CanadaCup

    No sir.  He actually has more to work with.

    The way you look at efficiency and measure it will tell you, effectively, how well a player is doing with what he has to work with.  Then you can extrapolate out as to how another might do in their place.

     

    For example, just because you know the receivers that Burrow has to work with you assume that he has more to work with.

    The numbers do not bear that out.

     

    The other issue is that a great QB will make marginal talent look even better, good talent look great; and a non-elite QB will make even great talent look not so great.

     

    For example, look at other areas of efficiency that surround the QB play on each team:

     

    Defense WAR:

    KC 2.6

    BUF 2.5

    BLT 2.3

    CN 1.4

     

    REC WAR:

    BLT 2.6

    CN 1.8

    KC 1.4

    BUF 1.1

     

    RUSHING WAR:

    BLT 1.8 

    BUF 1.3

    CN -.2

    KC -.5

     

    BLOCKING:

    BUF 2.0

    KC 1.7

    BLT 1.5

    CN .7

     

    PASS BLOWN BLOCK%:

    3rd BUF 2.45%

    14th KC 3.05%

    26th BLT 3.83%

    27th CN 3.85%

     

    So, the numbers show that KC and CN have non-existent running games and, therefore, they have to be over-reliant on the passing game.

    So, opponents KNOW they have to throw.

     

    The top WRs Chase .9, Flowers .6, Shakir .6, Worthy .4 — are all decent.  But it can be argued that Mahomes is doing better here.

    Next best WRs: Higgins .3, Coleman .3, Bateman .3 and Rice .1

    Top TEs: Andrews .4, Kincaid .3, Kelce .2, Gesicki .2

     

    BUF has the far better Offensive line and CN, by far, the worst.

     

    The receiving is better with BLT and the other 3 fairly close.  But, it can be argued that even there Jackson is having such a great AND efficient year that he has lifted them above where they would be with average QB play.

     

    The defensive play is far worse in CN than with the other 3 teams.

     

    This is NOT to take away from Allen.  He is having a great year.  But he does NOT have less talent than the others, so he is NOT doing more with less.

     

    He may win the MVP and I am okay with that.  I am simply saying a better case could be made for Jackson and Burrow — maybe, even Mahomes.

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    @CanadaCup

    No sir.  He actually has more to work with.

    The way you look at efficiency and measure it will tell you, effectively, how well a player is doing with what he has to work with.  Then you can extrapolate out as to how another might do in their place.

     

    For example, just because you know the receivers that Burrow has to work with you assume that he has more to work with.

    The numbers do not bear that out.

     

    The other issue is that a great QB will make marginal talent look even better, good talent look great; and a non-elite QB will make even great talent look not so great.

     

    For example, look at other areas of efficiency that surround the QB play on each team:

     

    Defense WAR:

    KC 2.6

    BUF 2.5

    BLT 2.3

    CN 1.4

     

    REC WAR:

    BLT 2.6

    CN 1.8

    KC 1.4

    BUF 1.1

     

    RUSHING WAR:

    BLT 1.8 

    BUF 1.3

    CN -.2

    KC -.5

     

    BLOCKING:

    BUF 2.0

    KC 1.7

    BLT 1.5

    CN .7

     

    PASS BLOWN BLOCK%:

    3rd BUF 2.45%

    14th KC 3.05%

    26th BLT 3.83%

    27th CN 3.85%

     

    So, the numbers show that KC and CN have non-existent running games and, therefore, they have to be over-reliant on the passing game.

    So, opponents KNOW they have to throw.

     

    The top WRs Chase .9, Flowers .6, Shakir .6, Worthy .4 — are all decent.  But it can be argued that Mahomes is doing better here.

    Next best WRs: Higgins .3, Coleman .3, Bateman .3 and Rice .1

    Top TEs: Andrews .4, Kincaid .3, Kelce .2, Gesicki .2

     

    BUF has the far better Offensive line and CN, by far, the worst.

     

    The receiving is better with BLT and the other 3 fairly close.  But, it can be argued that even there Jackson is having such a great AND efficient year that he has lifted them above where they would be with average QB play.

     

    The defensive play is far worse in CN than with the other 3 teams.

     

    This is NOT to take away from Allen.  He is having a great year.  But he does NOT have less talent than the others, so he is NOT doing more with less.

     

    He may win the MVP and I am okay with that.  I am simply saying a better case could be made for Jackson and Burrow — maybe, even Mahomes.

     
    Raiders22
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    Posted: Dec. 28, 2024 - 12:16 PM ET #23

    @CanadaCup

     I do not mean any of that as a knock on your opinion.  We all have them.

    ANY team would be overjoyed with ANY of those QBs.  Especially Allen because he is so dynamic, has a great arm and can beat you on the ground as well.

    I just think the others are playing a tad better EVEN though Allen has lifted his game.  

    And as you pointed out, Brady has really helped them out.

    I was just curious if you had any definite reasons for preferring him.  

    I have friends in Toronto (not sure with your username if you are close to there or not) and they like him -- but I get that he is their 'hometown' guy on their team.

    But you certainly cannot go wrong with him.  It will be very nice if he can get it done in the playoffs, and maybe, the Super Bowl this year.

    an_cheers

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    @CanadaCup

     I do not mean any of that as a knock on your opinion.  We all have them.

    ANY team would be overjoyed with ANY of those QBs.  Especially Allen because he is so dynamic, has a great arm and can beat you on the ground as well.

    I just think the others are playing a tad better EVEN though Allen has lifted his game.  

    And as you pointed out, Brady has really helped them out.

    I was just curious if you had any definite reasons for preferring him.  

    I have friends in Toronto (not sure with your username if you are close to there or not) and they like him -- but I get that he is their 'hometown' guy on their team.

    But you certainly cannot go wrong with him.  It will be very nice if he can get it done in the playoffs, and maybe, the Super Bowl this year.

    an_cheers

     
    dubz4dummyz
    dubz4dummyz
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    Posted: Dec. 28, 2024 - 12:22 PM ET #24

    Until he gets a decent OL it is hard to judge his performance

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    Until he gets a decent OL it is hard to judge his performance

     
     
    rosswin97
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    Posted: Dec. 28, 2024 - 12:27 PM ET #25

    yet leads all rookie qbs in passing yards.

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    yet leads all rookie qbs in passing yards.

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