YTD: 10-7
I think there will be no plays again, or possibly one. EDIT: Carolina have just qualified. I might play one or two now.
Carolina +10? (look-ahead line) vs LA Rams - Rams off one of their best results...if it opens this high, I'll be on the Panthers.
Minnesota +10.5 @ Seattle - Hating this one. Away dogs who have suffered a beatdown away in their previous game are at 54% in my database, but the dropoff in December/January is pronounced (11-14). Then consider that the Vikings will be starting Max Brosmer at Seattle, where the Seahawks have played really good ball and are off a game in which they didn't cover their big line against the league's worst team. Definitely won't be putting my money on Minnesota.
Tampa Bay -3 vs Arizona - I guess it depends how low this one goes. The look-ahead line was -6 prior to Mayfield's injury.
Chargers -9.5 vs Raiders - Chargers off a bye, and tbh I hadn't checked until now how these teams do when a bye separates the game where they got slaughtered going into the bye and their next game, after a week's rest. The numbers aren't encouraging. My numbers go back to 2008, and these teams are a combined 8-16 ATS in the followup, including 2-8 by favorites (and 1-8 by home favorites). The Raiders are awful, but I can't go against history here. The only bigger favorite was actually a rematch of this game: The 2014 San Diego Chargers home and favored by -10.5 against the then Oakland Raiders, who were circling the drain as a 3-13 team. The Chargers won that one 13-6, failing to cover the big spread.
Hot Forum Topics
