Balt @ NE

Hello,

Haven't logged in in about 2 years. Can't believe I remembered my password! Love the site and the many great reads on here.

Anyway here's my take on this game and the high pointspread.

So Vegas puts the line out at 9-1/2. Any part time football fan know that these two teams play eachother tight and that the last 4 games have come down to a last posession with the exception of the playoff game in 2010 (I believe) where the Ravens smoked NE. Ravens gettin 9 easy right? No brainer??? Or is it?

As a longtime (rational) Patriots fan who actually likes the Ravens I have agonized on which way to play this one.

I decided to look at both teams where they are today and compare them to the teams that took the field in the last 4 games. The differences that jump out to me the most are:

1) The Ravens,although still a smashmouth group on defense, are older, nicked up, and have lost a step. I'd like to think we can all agree on this. They can be run on and don't quite get to the QB as they once did. I recall watching those nasty, low scoring Ravens/Steelers games. This is not the same team.

2) Am I crazy to think that the Patriots defense might be above average for the 1st time in several years? The addition of Talib has reshaped their secondary.Ninkovich has become a Teddy Bruschi type player.Spikes brings an attitude not seen on this team in a long time. 

Here's a stat.Since week 10 NE has only allowed 1 pass play of 40 yds or more. That play was a screen pass in the Jax game in week 16.

3) NE now has a running game. Since the Corey Dillon days, this team's running game could easily overlooked by opposing teams. They now feature Ridley whol runs and cuts hard. Woodhead and Vereen are great change of pace backs who can also catch the ball. There is a big difference in planning for Ben Jarvus Green Ellis and what is facing the Ravens this week.

So based on this I have decided to lay Pats -9. I am predicing a 30 - 17 score.

BOL this weekend.