I personally think Indianapolis is a better team than Jacksonville (just by watching games of the two weekly) and with a short line of a -1.5 on the road it appears to me to hold good value but the Jaguars have beaten the colts the last nine in a row at everbank stadium which is my concern hating to go against such solid trends.
Thoughts?
"When a road team with fewer wins does not receive at least three points, they have a record of 306-244-24 against the spread (ATS)."
Seems to come into play with WAS/MN. But who knows is either teams is motivated.
The IND/JAX game is right about what I have it. But you have to figure which Trevor Lawrence will show up. He has struggled against decent defenses this year. Who knows if after last week and being at home if he will be sharp two games in a row or not.
@justliketoplay
It is just so tricky this late in the season to figure out if teams with bad records are 'experimenting' and are truly motivated.
Sure, they are all professional and want to keep their job and win.
So, if two 'bad' teams are playing you have to be careful.
If a playoff hopeful is playing a 'bad' team with no playoff hopes is the line accounting for the 'bad' team's mindset, etc.
Then if you want to only choose two 'good' teams that are playing each other with hopes of the playoffs, you also have to be careful. Because there are fewer of those games to choose from. So, you do not want to 'force' a play on a game just to play your 'normal' amount of games.
But that IND/JAX game is one of the interesting ones for sure.
Very true. Those that are tanking sometimes tank purposely or simply don't give 100% for a future draft position and a weaker schedule the next following season but on the same token some of the less desirable losing record teams and their coaches vying to keep their job still want to show dignity and want to win just for the sake of not the embarrassment aspect of it and the dismal season that their team is having and are motivated in such to win moving forward on their remaining schedule/games.
That's where the handicapping comes in to figure out Which team is motivated to win with a losing record and which team is not.
I really like Philly this week less than a FG.
Herbert just had hand surgery(on his non throwing hand). He might play, if he does I don't think he'll be able to protect the ball well. Not with his shit o line against that d line. And they'll most likely only use shotgun.
If it's Trey Lance, even better. I can't remember if he's ever had a good game in the nfl
It's rock bottom right now in Philly. Their fans and media are just ruthless. They got punched in the mouth by the Bears.
I'll back em if no one else wants to.
@undermysac
Nice play on team with Philly to consider no doubt sac thanks and you are correct that the last game with Chicago was not a good look for the defending Superbowl champs and a strong performance this week is most definitely in order for the coach, the team, the fans and the franchise.
The Steeler defense was on the field for 41 minutes versus the Bills. The Steeler offense was unable to put up points and they still refuse to throw over the middle. Of course one of the reasons they don't is that the oline can't pass block for over one count. They almost put Rodgers on a stretcher from the hit by Bosa last Sunday.
Steelers cut Darius 'Big Pay' Slay from the Tomlin barbershop (10 million guaranteed pi$$ed away). Slay was horrific and took off plays and refused to tackle. They signed Adam Thielen off waivers not that another older guy (35) will make a difference.
Now the big showdown in Baltimore. The Ravens come off playing on Thanksgiving. Lamar is playing injured so...RBs Henry and Mitchell should have big games but, as was mentioned, who knows which teams show up? All guesswork these days.
@justliketoplay
I like a nice low key, under the radar, minimal viewership type game this week. Tampa -8.5. Don’t love the idea of laying that many points with Tampas struggling offense, but I just don’t see anything in Tyler Shough. He’s had a few bright spots but mostly awful. I was heavily invested in a prop play on the NO/MIA game last week and watched it very closely. Not only is NO a horribly coached team, but the offense is just useless with Shough at qb.
I like Tampa to buckle down, get the running game going with Bucky, and take care of business at home vs one of the league’s worst teams. As always major disclaimer on my opinions as this year has been my worst ever season only second to last season.
A starting point: Road dogs of less than +3 off a home game in which they were a dog of more than +4, since '89
33-21 s/u
36-18 ats
23-31 o/u
Wash+1'
@brn2loslive2win
I like a nice low key, under the radar, minimal viewership type game this week. Tampa -8.5. Don’t love the idea of laying that many points with Tampas struggling offense, but I just don’t see anything in Tyler Shough. He’s had a few bright spots but mostly awful. I was heavily invested in a prop play on the NO/MIA game last week and watched it very closely. Not only is NO a horribly coached team, but the offense is just useless with Shough at qb.
I like Tampa to buckle down, get the running game going with Bucky, and take care of business at home vs one of the league’s worst teams. As always major disclaimer on my opinions as this year has been my worst ever season only second to last season.
I have always liked to play on low-key games away from primetime and major fan based attention but this is another game to me that is uninviting in many ways with number one being Tampa favored by 8.5 points and to me laying anymore than a touchdown to any major NFL team always seems to haunt my play in the end when doing so.
Not to mention that the saints have covered the spread in each of the last seven road games traveling to Tampa.
Good luck if your playing this game and though the better teams do usually show up in December not always do they cover especially when the spread is the highest of all in this week fourteen NFL action
I thank you guys for determining and analyzing the best values this week as I know their are some hidden gems this week and the question always remains in Gambling on the NFL ......which is it? 
Established in 1995,
Exactly. It is hard to tell which team is doing what at this point.
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