I've watched and listened to a ton of content this week and the sloshing over the Ravens is something else. Everyone, and I mean everyone, thinks they are one of the greatest teams of all-time. When you have morons like Colin Cowherd and Jason Whitlock proclaiming them god's gift then you know it is well past time to sell high.
I understand they look incredible on a spreadsheet. Trust me. It's been repeated ad naseum this week. "Well if you looked at these teams on a spreadsheet the line should be Ravens -6!". I also understand because of how they look on a spreadsheet that folks who are stats and model heavy have bet the Ravens every which way possible. It takes substantial money to move the second most bet game of the year to 4.
But to me something is off. It's hard to refute stats and evidence on paper. But Baltimore being a Top 5 DVOA team of all-time? That...smells a bit funky. Are they really up there with the top DVOA teams like the 2007 Patriots, 1991 Redskins, and 85 Bears? Those teams were stuffed with Hall of Fame football players. I've always been a bit biased to talent over scheme. The Ravens have some excellent players for sure. But do they have multiple Hall of Famers that would put them up there as a Top 5 team of all-time? Do they have a single Hall of Fame in their prime? Or have their front ran and schemed their way over a mediocre league to force turnovers and run up big margins?
The league is down this year. There were 2-3 good teams all season. Roughing up the middle class (Detroit, Seattle, Miami) looks awesome in the metrics but to me doesn't mean as much this season as it would in years past. I think the Ravens are quite overinflated for this reason.
For me, they don't pass the eye test as one of the best teams ever. In fact, over the second half of the season I'd argue they haven't even played that well. Lost at home to Cleveland. Looked very clunky in a win over the Chargers that was 13-10 in the last two minutes. Needed a late TD to tie and then punt return in OT to beat the Rams. Looked clunky against a bad Jags team that was in a game that was 10-7 after 3 quarters and saw the Jags p!ss away boatloads of points. Beat SF by 14 but honestly the Niners were moving the ball very well before a bunch of fluky tipped interceptions completely changed that game. They did completely throttle Miami for sure tho. But they also looked terrible in the 1st half last week.
Some stats I like to look at back this up too. Over the second half of the year including the playoffs (and throwing out Week 18), if you exclude plays that involve turnovers and garbage time (where one team has less than a 10% win probability) the Ravens offense is 6th in EPA/play. Good but nothing like a historically good team. The Chiefs over that same timespan are actually rank 7th. You'd never know that if you read or listened to anything this week. More interesting is over the same timeframe the Ravens rush offense is 12th in EPA/play. KC? 6th. How about the same timeframe and parameters on defense? The Ravens defense is a shocking 18th in EPA/play allowed. KC is much better at 11th. Perhaps most surprising is over that same timeframe the Ravens rush defense is 5th WORST in EPA/play and 31st in rush success rate! KC over that span sits 16th and 14th. Interesting when you've been hearing all week how bad the KC run defense has been. It's actually Baltimore than has been far worse both rushing on offense and stopping the run on defense.
The power of the media and its affect on the betting public is a timely topic as the mainstream sports' media is painting with a broad-brush and making it seem as if the Ravens are unbeatable. Totally agree 
I mean they beat 6 of the playoff bracket teams some of them handily. The stats don't lie your mind who you where betting on was made up before you even created this post . KC was blessed playing 2 bad defenses so far Sunday will be much different for him . Mahomes is great don't get me wrong but he doesn't have a great supporting cast around him offensively to keep up . Ravens by double digits book it . 
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