Are linesmakers psychic or the devil?

Man, it is hard to believe that linesmakers are that good to set a line for +/- 83% of the betting public to hammer on the Colts at     -2.5 and have the game cover by 0.5 points on the last second of the game. This game smelled bad from the opening line coming out, and before today I had seen 90%+ on the Colts. I too liked the Colts but had to tease it because I know the NFL lines are so tight with the final outcome.

Sometimes I think that the linesmakers know the final score before the game is played, but they would not exploit this because they need to keep people gambling. However, why wouldn't you just use these "psychics" to win the lottery, unless they are the devil and enjoy taking good peoples money?

You know that the books needed this cover as so many people were on INDY. However, this is only one game out of so many games. But how do you set a line at -2.5 for what would obviously be the major public side and have it hit by such a short margin?

Shoot I don't know.

Does anybody remember that Back to the Future part 2 or 3 when Biff gets his hands on a Sports Almanac with the outcomes of sports events and then tries to take it back to the present where he could clean up?

It was even closer remembering the opening line was Colts -1'

Colts cover w no line movement

I agree. They had no chance of winning this game, but they made sure they covered the line. Dick head Fisher should have kicked a field goal with a few minutes remaining and then an on-side kick to try and win it.

This goes just to prove that the profootball line is being tampered with.

Guy's, there really is statistical reasoning based on many different angles on offese, defense.......I know it seems like the line is right on and they are set so close, however consider the following. By the end of the season you will see the lines right on most of the time because there is enough statistical mass to measure and teams are really who they are at this point.

Now with that said, Bowl games get interesting because of all the time off, injuries healing, etc where how teams finished the season may really not have a large baring on the outcome.....tricky but fun to cap.

I think that this game makes a point for betting teasers. I know many people are against teasers. But in the NFL, the lines are so sharp, that getting 6-7 points on a side can reduce stressful situations such as the one tonight. Just a thought.

Also, in the NFL there is so much parody that lines are likely 7 or less in 80% of games and the win will be within a few points one way or the other around 7 so it "feels" like they know something or the game is fixed, but in reality the game has a very high probability of landing right around that number.

The key is to try to find the 10-20% of the lines that are off for whatever reason and then land those games. They are out there but remember with 16 NFL games played a week only 1 to 3 games have missmatched lines.

Tonights game was simply a coin toss and 50/50 chance of hitting......no real kowledge needed, just flip a coin "once people take the Indy emotion and previous years hype". You take the emotion out and the 3.5 line was perfect and was just asking for some side to get moosed.

I never do teasers, but thats a good point. Problem is statistically it's not in your favor once you start having to bet 2 or 3 games for value unless you absolutely do your homework. It takes me a long time to cap 1 game not to mention 2 or 3.

Believe me, that is why they give you the option, if it were easy everyone would tease 2 to 4 games and break the bank each night.

I agree, they take the value out of teasers with the juice and having to pick multiple games. But, I also think that the NFL is the best sport to tease. Plus, they give you good opportunities to middle plays. Such as tonight. I had Indy +3 and Under 51.5 for my teaser. I did not like all the points that were scored in the first half, so at halftime I put an equal amount on the over 21.5 2nd half. This only left me a 2 point middle chance (which it would have hit if not for the last second TD). However, there was a chance to lose both bets if TEN scored 21-0 in the second half, but we all know that was unlikely. All in all, I ended up losing some juice on this game, but at least I did get most of my money back with the halftime bet.

I have not looked at the games for this weekend yet, but those two look like winners SU at least. The one I like the least is GB, but I do still like it. Also, look in to SD against my Chiefs. I have a feeling we would have a hard time winning this game with a healthy Cassel. Now it looks like Croyle will be starting. I have a hard time seeing my Chiefs win this game.

Quote Originally Posted by Sareesataka:



It is so funny you mention that. Almost every time I place a bet, I think "I wish I had Bif's Sports Almanac to help me out here!". Seriously.

Or Timecop, when the guy is looking at two stock charts one from the 50's and one from the present 1990's and picking the best performers.