A close game for the Ravens is not 3 points...

...it is 1-2 pts. 
This WILL be a close game.  I have not pulled the trigger but here are my thoughts on why you SHOULDN'T bet this game:

1. You think the Pats will lose because Welker is out
2. The Ravens barely squeaked by Oakland so why can they compete with the Pats
3. Brady has every rib broken

The Pats record of home wins at a league-tying 8-0(shared with Minny) is impressive, and something to strongly take into consideration when capping this game.  Belichick's ability to successfully make personnel changes due to injuries, is also not something to ignore.  There is a reason why his coaching savvy, coupled with his cheating ways, have his Brady-led team to so many postseasons and posted a 14-3 SU mark in the postseason.

The Ravens have been an enigma all season long.  They came out strong on offense and beat up the bad teams, and then went through a mid season malaise of poor offense and a suspect secondary.  They showed a lot of guts in the Minnesota comeback, which Flacco came out of a coma and was a FG away from a win, and also played tough against the Colts and the Steelers.  I am in agreement that the notion that this team could have been 13 and whatever is bullshit.  There is a reason that teams don’t get the bounces and the breaks and there is no one to blame for the close losses but the Ravens.

What intrigues me about this matchup is the chip on the shoulder that Baltimore has with last two close losses against the Pats(the drop by Mason stinging the most), and the fact that they are finally almost healthy.  Everyone is active including Ed Reed who will probably make spotty appearances in this game.  I do not think he will be as much of a factor.  On the other side of the ball, NE has played slightly better than average this season, but nothing like their past playoff years. Despite the mediocrity, they still managed to clinch the division with home field.  The loss to Welker is not favorable for them, but I do believe Edelman will plug in, and make plays, just not like Welker.

This game is going to come down to how stout the #7 Baltimore defense plays in this game, and how well Flacco is able to take advantage of the #14 Patriots defense.  Regardless of the outcome, I think everyone on both teams thinks this is going to be a hard fought, close game.  As my thread started, close is not 4 pts for the Ravens.  Although Pitt knocked Balty out last year with the Polamalu interception return, and the Pats late strike to Moss to go up by 6 helped cover the spread earlier in the season, I just feel like this game will be tighter.  Everyone on Covers has been leaning, flip flopping, and not committing to a play.  A good number of Pats backers are going ML or buying the hook.  I believe that the Pats could run away with this game while the chances of the Raven winning big are beyond slim.  I just see this up and down year for the Ravens coming to a head, and the fact that they fought their way into the playoffs makes them a dangerous team, who right now are battle-tested, and have not spent the week adjusting their offense because of a key injury.

 BOL whatever side you take.  We are all here for the same reason.

agree... and i think brady will pull a farve and show how badass and experienced he is, injured or not.

I like the Under in this game also.  In the L10 the total has only eclipsed the 43 mark 2 times.  Also the Ravens are 2-7-1 going over 43 in L10 and the injury to Welker does not help the Patriots offense. 

Weather and wind a big factor also and everyone thinks that is a plus for NE.  I don't check the Baltimore weather everyday but I think it gets pretty fucking cold there too.

Quote Originally Posted by Crusher13:

Great post. Indecision being reflected on several Covers posts. IF BALT D comes to play this will be a nailbiter, especially if BALT has any success  running the ball w/Rice and McGahee. Absolutely LOVE teasing Balt to 10 or 10.5 please GL

After today's games, either the Balt/NE or the GB/AZ game will be a nailbiter.  That's just the way it goes...

i am leaning toward over because i think brady goes deep often and early to moss if he has hurt ribs they may want limit # of times he can get hit. if they score quickly balt should have ball on offense enough times to put some pts on board

One thing you forgot to mention is the Ravens knack for taking too many penalities and the NFL's knack for protecting Brady with calls vs opp's Defense. These could be HUGH factors. My parlay is still alive with Jets+3, Dallas-3, Balt+6 and GB+3. I played this when first available and purchased points to get these numbers to where they are.

As the week has gone by, the only game that I have been concerened with is the Balt-NE game. I too think it will be close but feel the Pats WILL win this game ONLY because it is in NE.

Hard for me to overlook the fact that the Ravens are 1-6 vs playoff teams this season and thier only win was waaaaaaay back in wk2 when the Chargers were struggling out of the gate which they always seem to do.

I like NE to jump out early and hold on for a 24-20 win.

Good Luck To All

Quote Originally Posted by shrimp1958:

This crew called the least penalties all year,the Ravens R very happy.......The real Dirty Birds R the Ravens...

 Great info

Good points but you may want to put

4. If you think New Englands Defense can stop  ANYBODY.

good writeup Brock.  I am unsure who I really like.  I have NE -3 from a parlay with Bama, so I may just have to ride that.

I am in CT right now, and it is cold, but very little wind, and the sun is shining bright.  Weather will not be a huge factor.  Just got a call from a firend who is tailgating at foxboro, and he said the weather is the same there. 

Good luck to you all.

Quote Originally Posted by Brocknroll:

 Please change that final to 23-20 Pats and we have a deal

I played a parlay when the lines 1st opened with Jets+3, Dallas-3, Ravens+6(B+1.5pts), GB+3(B+0.5 pts) so if ravens win I won't be pissed, I just think that Pats will win that close one today. I really think the league wants NE to win here.

Good Luck