🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets

Starting off my 2022 NFL campaign with MNF.

Highly rated Chiefs play the mediocre Raiders.

I could waste a lot of time analyzing various rushing & passing stats, or get lost in the irrelevent minutiae of "trends," but for me the relevent analysis always comes down to just a few KEY points:
-  Key injuries?
-  Against whom did each team play so far?
-  What were the previous results? (and were they lucky/unlucky?)
-  Where were those results played? Home or road?

For tonight, both teams will field a number of walking wounded. The Chiefs moreso on offense, but the Raiders moreso on defense. I'll consider this a wash, although Waller could be a HUGE loss for the Raiders if he gets hurt further on his shoulder, because TE Moreau is also out. Not sure how big a loss Brown is in the LB corps. But Chiefs are aware of these.

From their schedules, we see both teams faced AZ and LAC. Raiders LOST BOTH, while the Chiefs WON BOTH.
Raiders then split against mediocre teams, while Chiefs also split their last two games but one was a big win on the road at highly rated Tampa!
Thus, Raiders played a slightly weaker schedule so far.

Raiders are 1 - 3 with a mediocre  -4 net pt differential against that collectively weaker group.
They LOST both their road games, by 5 and 2 respectively, and BOTH against mediocre opponents.
They are on the road tonight, but finally facing a VERY GOOD opponent!

Chiefs are 3 - 1 with an EXCELLENT +33 net pt. differential in their 4 games, one of which was on the road at a very tough opponent.

And finally, not only did Chiefs achieve a 3 - 1 record against slightly better opponents overall, amassing +33 net pt. differential from their wins, they did so while playing 3 road games and only benefitted from a single home game!

They get the the benefit from a home game tonight!

Of course anything can happen in football as we witnessed this weekend. Lucky breaks can flip everything. Raiders need net lucky breaks in their favor to win. But if the breaks are about even, KC wins by 5 to 14 pts here.

Chiefs -350    @Bet365     *BEST BET
Chiefs -4 -170 @BetCRIS

*PS. I am not suggesting anyone bet the same as I do. Do it YOUR way, it's likely far less risky, and I wish you BoL with your bets.

Yaa  a bit too much chalk for me on this one but good luck

YTD: 1 - 1  from MNF as Chiefs missed two makeable FGA.

But I won my *BEST BET and I have another tonight.

Chicago is struggling.  But Washington is even worse.  Their record and pt differential is awful and that included an extra home game and playing a weaker schedule than Chicago!

BEARS +1     *BEST BET

*PS. I am not suggesting anyone bet the same as I do. Do it YOUR way, it's likely far less risky, and I wish you BoL with your bets.

Good luck pilgrim 

In my capping I considered what I figure to be more wounded and walking wounded in (or off) the Washington lineup than in the Bears'

Am I wrong on this?

Well that Bears game sucked.

This week looking to rebound.

Seahawks +3.5 -163 @Bet365    *BEST BET

Winner.  And as a *BEST BET.

Looking at the evening game between Dallas and Philly, this game shapes up like

  October 23 risky NFL bets:

Cowboys -295                   *BEST BET

     My subjective "HCPATO" rating has Dallas at 84% to win SU so I see good value in this ML which is basically 3 to 1

*PS. I am not suggesting anyone bet the same as I do. Bet YOUR way, it's likely less risky, and I wish you BoL with your bets.

Falcons +7.5 -140 buying pts @Bet365

   I believe Mariota is on a roll now with a powerful supporting run game and will prove to be a surprising challenge for the Bengals.  I actually like the Bengals to win SU (at roughly 65%) but won't bet into a 3 to 1 price tag.  Barring a bevy of turnovers I anticipate a very close to even contest, so buying pts to get +7.5 at a modest price looks favorable here.

Giants +4 -145  buying pts @Bet365  *BEST BET  

Yes, their 5 - 1 record is surprising for this perennial underachiever and yet they keep finding a way to win. Solid win against Titans to start the season on the road, and also vs Packers and Ravens! Jaguars are a much weaker opponent, yet the 5 -1 team with a very respectable resume is an underdog at the weak 2 - 4 team?? Injuries and walking wounded appear about even.
Assuming turnovers and breaks fall about evenly, Giants are the better team here, and playing well after beating the Packers and Ravens, and have a very good shot at winning outright, let alone getting points!

*PS. I am not suggesting anyone bet the same as I do. Bet YOUR way, it's likely less risky, and I wish you BoL with your bets.

Interesting note from Covers "league trends"

Home Favs are only covering about 40% ATS

Away DOGS are covering at almost 60% ATS

Good luck today 

Buccaneers -10-153  buying pts @BetCRIS    *BEST BET at this line

Normally I would never lay a double-digit spread on a road fav. But this is one of those rare occasions where it makes sense.
Panthers suck, to begin with. They are a pathetic 1 - 5 despite having the benefit of playing 4 home games vs only 2 on the road!
Head coach fired!
Lost their last 3 games by 10, 22 and 14 respectively, and lost Baker Mayfield in that 22 pt shellacking on home turf. They started their 3rd string QB last week in a 14 pt loss to mediocre RAMS who were floundering at only 2 -3 entering that game.
THEN..... a couple days ago they traded away their all-everything *BEST* PLAYER, Christian McCaffery - who leads the team not only in rushing but receiving as well, and played well in those 3 recent losses. Today facing the angry Buccaneers, they won't have him. And they will be without their #2 top receiver, Robbie Anderson, as well, who was also traded away!
Imagine the morale in that loser locker room.
Sure, anything can happen on any given day. We all know this. Flukes happen.
But without McCaffery, Anderson and Mayfield this is the weakest team in the NFL at this time, facing a strong team coming off a loss, and the odds strongly suggest Brady & the Bucs hand Carolina a 4th consecutive beatdown today. I hope Carolina can turn it all around before the end of the year, but I just don't see that happening today against Brady & co. - unless they get exceptionally lucky.

 *PS. I am not suggesting anyone bet as I do. Bet YOUR way, it's likely less risky, and I wish you BoL with your bets!

ok  cowboys on ml           grabbed it 

LOSS

I knew the Bucs had a chance to fail to cover the DD spread but getting crushed by the worst team in the league??

Never thought I'd see this.    And it was no fluke either!

Bucs no longer in the upper half of the NFL.   Not after these last two performances.

Chargers -225

Another LOSS.....yuck.  

Well, "in for a penny, in for a ton," I always say.....

Dolphins -340           *BEST BET

Tua is back and Steelers are not good.

My risky bet for MNF, Oct 24:

Bears +11 -140   buying pts at BetCRIS

BoL with your bets fellas! 

NFL week of Oct 27 - 31:

Bal @ TB

I have this one rated as a true tossup.  Could legitimately make a case for either team here to win. Multiple injuries on both teams especially defensively, and therefore I was leaning to an over but the lines have adjusted up and that value to me is lost.  Pass, but may bet some live action.

More to come for every game, and I will likely be betting on at least 8 games with several *BEST BETS (which are 5-2 so far this season, which only began for me on MNF Oct.10)

Good luck pilgrim 

QB or not QB, that is the question.  

Vikings -200                                                              *Best Bet

Falcons -200       *BEST BET
Saints +1
Philly -7.5 -153 buying pts @BetCRIS
JETS +3             *BEST BET

COLTS -2.5-117 @BetCRIS                                                       *BEST BET