The model predicts Portland wins by a 3.6 margin
Conference Total Trailblazers 117-113
Raw Calculated Total Trailblazers 121-118
First of all i want to figure out how Damian Lillard comes into play here.
Dame Train or Portland Train. If we look at Dame, he's averaging 29.8 Points a game and 37.1 Minutes a game. If we look closely, his explosive scoring that we've been seeing lately started back in January 20 against the GSW where he scored 61 Points. The games following..
47 points vs Mavericks, 50 points vs Pacers, 36 points vs Rockets, 48 points vs Lakers, 51 Points vs Jazz
Before the 61 Point GSW game he averaged around 26.6/Game. So we're witnessing a player going above his average performance all season long and has maintained it for 6 games in a row. So from above we can see They've won 5 of their last 6 games, with a loss coming from the Mavericks. I also want to look at his teammates to determine whether this is ball hogging or carrying. Surprisingly it was actually a balanced output of points. CJ, Trevor & Hassan weren't too behind in those games in terms of points. CJ and Trevor individually added 20-26 average Points on top of Dame's, & Hassan performing the way he should. Damian is neither carrying or disallowing points from teammates, which strongly indicates its the Portland Train, not the Dame Train. We can't takeaway credit from Damian, He's just being himself.
To begin both teams have lost 4 games in their last 11. Portlands 2/4 losses were dealt by Dallas Mavericks. Both teams faced playoff contenders in their last 11 and won against .500-.600 teams. Denver has won 2 of its last 3 home games, by 6 & 7. They lost to the pacers by 8. Trailblazers have won 1 of their last 3 away games, by 8 & 13. They beat the Lakers by 8. Both teams last 11 games and previous home/away outings didn't reveal much information in terms of bias and performance. The Trailblazers are on a 4 game winning streaking going into Nuggets territory. Denver won 2 previous bouts. Oct 23 Nuggets 108-100 & Dec 12, Nuggets 114-99
When i ran instances of their last 11 games, Portland had a higher PF% FieldGoal% 3PT% and FT% than the Denver Nuggets. Its becoming clear this game will not be a walk in the park for Denver, and they may potentially lose or get blown out. Both teams schedule and recent opponents were so balanced i decided to look at this game from one more angle. I removed the last 4 games of both team and wanted to see what the model would come up with. I did this because the trailblazers are on a 4 game win streak, winning 5 of their last 6. We've already concluded its not exactly the Dame Train, rather the Portland Train. When removing the last 4 games of both teams, Portland Trailblazers win by a margin of 4.5...Hmm i wonder where that number came from
"Have the Odds adjusted to Portland?" Absolutely not, and i believe this is where the decision comes down to. I believe the linesmaker know this will be a tight game, but give the edge to Denver since they have a better record and are at home.
Both teams have had equally balanced last 11 games in terms of schedule and opponents. Trailblazers are coming in with a 4 game win streak. Home/Away didn't, and doesn't even come near to be a factor of gameplay when both teams face each other tonight. Portland averaged 10% better stats in all factors of scoring than the Nuggets for the past 20 games. With this i can see why my model predicts a 3.6 win margin for the Trailblazers.
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