Going into the Cle. @ Det. gm. 5 matchup, I saw what basically everyone else saw, that it looked like a dead cinch home team type of series. Detroit was 5-1 at home this playoff season (4-2 ATS, 2-0 this series), and Cle. was 0-5 (0-5 ATS) on the road. Looked easy (maybe too easy), and I made the decision to take Detroit for 1.5 u, buying down to -2.5, something I don't typically do. Maybe that was the start of the tipoff right there - not having the confidence to lay the conventional spread.
Anyway, right after I placed the bet, I got this sick feeling. I had had this feeling twice before, once I heeded it, once I didn't. Both times, though, the feeling proved its merit. I was unwilling to potentially get caught with my pants down again. so I bought out of the bet and ate the juice. I really didn't feel that Cle. ML was worth the risk, so at that point I had no position on the game.
Then, as it got close to gametime, I recalled what one of the well respected cappers on here said about the Cavs winning - if the Cavs were to win, it would be an over. That clicked in my head, and when I saw that the Cavs ML/ov 210.5 parlay was paying +359, I started to feel some excitement (intuition at play again). And I made a smallish play on the parlay (although the payoff wasn't so small). So my intuition here guided me away from the loser and onto the winner.
This may be somewhat overstated, but it's been said that a gambler's intuition is his best tool.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Going into the Cle. @ Det. gm. 5 matchup, I saw what basically everyone else saw, that it looked like a dead cinch home team type of series. Detroit was 5-1 at home this playoff season (4-2 ATS, 2-0 this series), and Cle. was 0-5 (0-5 ATS) on the road. Looked easy (maybe too easy), and I made the decision to take Detroit for 1.5 u, buying down to -2.5, something I don't typically do. Maybe that was the start of the tipoff right there - not having the confidence to lay the conventional spread.
Anyway, right after I placed the bet, I got this sick feeling. I had had this feeling twice before, once I heeded it, once I didn't. Both times, though, the feeling proved its merit. I was unwilling to potentially get caught with my pants down again. so I bought out of the bet and ate the juice. I really didn't feel that Cle. ML was worth the risk, so at that point I had no position on the game.
Then, as it got close to gametime, I recalled what one of the well respected cappers on here said about the Cavs winning - if the Cavs were to win, it would be an over. That clicked in my head, and when I saw that the Cavs ML/ov 210.5 parlay was paying +359, I started to feel some excitement (intuition at play again). And I made a smallish play on the parlay (although the payoff wasn't so small). So my intuition here guided me away from the loser and onto the winner.
This may be somewhat overstated, but it's been said that a gambler's intuition is his best tool.
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