PACER$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Indiana +6.5

Simple theory here, perhaps a zig zag from last game.  The Pacers could not have played worse and the Heat could not have played better in the last game.  I look for Indiana to play vastly better and some regression from Miami here.  Too many points as the Pacers look to avenge a bad performance and I expect a lower scoring game which also favors the points.

I look for Indiana to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door with what I believe to be a healthy amount of points that it’s been afforded. Remember, the Pacers took the Heat to 7 games last year and have won in Miami each of the last two postseasons. This is a do or die game for Indiana, a 3-1 deficit would be just too big of a hole to climb out of in my opinion. Momentum, motivational and situational factors and many other things have to be taken into account from game to game in the postseason. During the regular season, I primarily base my selections more on numbers and lopsided trends and statistics, but in the Playoffs, it’s a much more fluid process for myself. Indiana jumped out to a huge lead in Game 3, but would slow its attack and ultimately flail horribly down the stre tch; I do firmly believe it’ll be much sharper today (note that Indiana had 19 turnovers which led to 26 Heat points): “The little brother (his team the Pacers) spends his whole life getting beat up by the big brother, getting beaten in sports, sporting events, 1-on-1 basketball and what-not," Indiana coach Frank Vogel assessed yesterday. "All those years of getting beat up builds him up to the point where he ultimately takes on the big brother." Note that the Pacers have actually led for 99 of the 144 minutes played so far in this series which equates to about 69 percent of the time. Miami could easily be in a 3-0 hole at this point but has used some epic rallying to save itself in each of its two victories. I expect another nail-biter and am grabbing as many points as I can.