77-72 after the break
Here’s a bonus play to start your day. I know this isn’t the baseball forum but I’m still working on the basketball games. Don’t oversleep. Games at 12:05pm eastern time.
I did a little research on this game just to see what I came up with and liked what I found.
Fried is on the mound for the Braves while Fedde starts off for the Nationals. Fedde posted a horrendous 12.56 era last season against the Braves and two of the Nationals batters just hit the COVID list. The Braves are 0-4 and due for a win. In their most recent loss the Braves had 4 batters deliver 4 solo home runs so they’re heating up at about the right time facing a pitcher they completely dominated last season. I don’t really mess with this baseball too much but I’ve been told there’s some easy money to be made here so let’s see how this one pans out and lmk what you think. Maybe I’ll throw in a play or two as a bonus til seasons end in NBA.
4/7 Wednesday's NBA Pick
Brooklyn Nets vs New Orleans Pelicans: Brooklyn Nets -10.5
Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks: Dallas Mavericks -6.5
Denver Nuggets vs San Antonio Spurs: Denver Nuggets -6.5
Indiana Pacers vs Minnesota Timberwolves:Minnesota Timberwolves +2.5
Orlando Magic vs Washington Wizards: Orlando Magic +4
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Charlotte Hornets: Charlotte Hornets -4.5
4/7 Wednesday's NBA Pick Brooklyn Nets vs New Orleans Pelicans: Brooklyn Nets -10.5 Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks: Dallas Mavericks -6.5 Denver Nuggets vs San Antonio Spurs: Denver Nuggets -6.5 Indiana Pacers vs Minnesota Timberwolves:Minnesota Timberwolves +2.5 Orlando Magic vs Washington Wizards: Orlando Magic +4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs Charlotte Hornets: Charlotte Hornets -4.5
That’s like all the losers tonight!
Mavericks vs Rockets
Dallas is averaging 111.8 ppg. They finished with 111 against the top 5 defense of the Jazz in their last matchup. Defensively they haven’t been all too great allowing 111.1 ppg. However it should be noted they held the Jazz to 103. Houston struggles as usual averaging 107.8 ppg. Keep in mind they dropped 130 against the Suns shooting above 50 percent from the field and from behind the arc. However their struggles defensively are still showing allowing 113.6 ppg. The Rockets have given up 120 ppg over 4 of the last 5. I expect Dallas to score well north of 120 today. On the road the Mavs have averaged a superb 113 ppg. The Rockets average 107.8 but over their last three games they’ve averaged 115.7 ppg. The Mavs give up 108.5 on the road so the Rockets should come close to their average of 107.8. The Mavs and Rockets have played over the number in 4 of the last 5 and Dallas has covered in 4 of the last 6. Hopefully I haven’t confused you and these numbers hold true tonight. I know the Mavs have held their last 3 opponents to an average of 92 ppg but the Rockets have gotten back to pushing the tempo while the Mavs are crashing the boards better than most especially on the offensive end where second chance points should come at a premium tonight. Porzingas is likely in while Kleber is out so the Mavs are giving up a little on the defensive end for more on the offensive side. With Porzingas playing like total crap lately he should be eager to play well against the Rockets who are now in the bottom half of the league defensively. Let’s get this easy money today. There will be nothing in the way of Porzingas and Doncic today. A huge size mismatch is on its way. I really like this combo play plus the Mavs should want a little revenge after losing to this very same ‘worst’ team in the league 133-108 back in January.
When you see a good angle you gotta take advantage of it. That’s how I see it. But I’m in total agreement with you and will definitely have the Braves in a small 2 team or 3 team parlay.
Wolves vs Pacers
I smell a little payback and the perfect opportunity at hand unfortunately. According to Bjorkgren Turner “sprained it pretty good”. Not sure why he’s listed as a GTD but I’m not surprised. This league has a way of working with the books imo. This is why I try and stay on top of things with every bit of info I can get. I’m assuming and fully expecting Turner to sit. But we won’t know until game time so tread lightly, and with confidence of course. X-rays were negative but why risk it when you’re in 9th place right? Whatever so the Wolves took the Pacers to OT back on February 17th of this year. I just want to mention that the three guys on this injury list for Indiana combined for 79 points in that game. Levert nor Russell were available for this matchup. If these three don’t play the Pacers not only lose some scoring punch but some size in the front court as well. I can see the Pacers going small here but I can’t see them winning this game without the three. Russell is probably and Towns had a big game against them last time out. The Wolves don’t win two in a row very often and should come into this matchup with that OT loss refreshening their memory.
This is not an official play. But I’m leaning Wolves +anything if those three are out. I’ll try and get back to you on this as this game approaches but it’s really not at the top of my list.
Wizards vs Magic
I like the revenge angle here. I’m not get into how many points the stars who left Orlando accounted for in the most recent two meetings but it should make a difference now that they aren’t there and here’s why.
The Magic are only averaging 104 ppg for the year. They haven’t scored more than 110 in their last 6 games. In their most recent two games they’ve averaged 100 points. They’ve given up 128 in the process. However the Magic have scored 120+ in six straight meetings verse the Wizards. The pace of this game should be similar to those of the past and while Orlando has had their number this is a much different Orlando team and I’d doubt Westbrook and company is going out like that. Keep an eye on the status of Beal, Lopez, and Hachimuira. The east is still up for grabs with the way the Hornets and Pacers are going. And while the Wizards have a tough schedule ahead I don’t think they’ve thrown in the towel yet. The Magic have had 3 days to prepare though so beware.
I have the Wiz winning this game if Beal, Lopez and Hachimuira play. But 3.5 seems like a lot. I’m leaning towards the ML but will definitely have my chips on the Over here.
Spurs vs Nuggets
We have one of the hottest teams in the NBA against one of the coldest. The Cleveland Cavs just held the Spurs to 101. I can only imagine what the Nuggets will do to the Spurs here defensively. This is not a good spot for the Spurs. Pops doesn’t have much of a choice and will have to play his bigs against the Nuggets to try and keep pace. I don’t even think the Spurs were looking ahead to this matchup. It’s not a b2b. In fact I’d bet they wished this game was postponed. Speaking of postponement...Has anyone noticed the COVID crap in NBA has suddenly almost vanished. How many games have been canceled since the break? Sadly for the Spurs they’ll be lucky to reach 90 points today. Don’t overthink this. This game will be far from close.
Jazz vs Suns
I’m not even going to cap this game since it is nearly impossible to do so. These teams have played to the Under quite a bit though going 4-0 in the last 4. Utah has has the Suns number in Phoenix though so maybe trends go back to normal here. However I’m more into recent numbers and the Suns just dropped 133 points against the Rockets. I don’t expect them to score 133 again but I’m not gonna expect huge drop off in terms of scoring in a home matchup on national television either. Booker boasts some length over Mitchell while Mitchell is the stronger of the two obviously. If they are the primary targets in this matchup which they should be we should have ourselves a hell of a game. The Jazz may have looked like crap verse the Mavs I wouldn’t expect them to shoot 12/44 from three point territory either. The Suns should come into this game mentally prepared since the Jazz have also held the Suns to some really low numbers in previous meetings before the last. But at the pace the Suns played against the Rockets you gotta think the Jazz will come out moving fast and firing away. Phoenix was able to control the tempo back in December but I think the Jazz will push the tempo here. With both teams slacking off in the defensive department and averaging 116 and 117 points I like the Over here.
I’ll be posting the final card in a bit. There may be some tweaks to it. I haven’t made it to my local yet so this is just a preview of what’s to come. I don’t normally change my plays every 6 minutes like a few in this forum but stay tuned. It’s looking good today.
I haven’t finalized this card but there is no way I am riding with the Spurs after they got destroyed by the Cavs without Allen and travel to Denver. And I have my reasons. The Nuggets should be favored by 8.5 here imo. But with the public pounding Denver + Over I can see why they’ve kept the number low. The Spurs don’t make it past 90-100 points today. GL to you.