Based on this matchup's moneyline, Toronto's implied win probability is 48.8%. Miami is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Toronto. Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games played on a Wednesday. The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Toronto. Dunkel's Pick: Toronto (+2.5).
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LA Lakers’ last 12 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of LA Lakers’ last 17 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Lakers’ last 6 games against an opponent in the Southwest Division
Take Dallas. The Mavericks are 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 games against the Lakers. They’re also 5-2 against the number in their last seven games overall, are 6-0 against the spread in their last six games when listed as the underdog and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when their opponent allowed 100 points or more in its previous game. (The Lakers allowed 105 points in a win over the Thunder.)
On the other side, the Lakers are 1-8 against the spread in their last nine games as a favorite. They’re also 1-4 against the number in their last five games as a home favorite and are 1-5 at the betting window in their last six games following a win.
Mavericks vs. Lakers Betting Prediction: DALLAS MAVERICKS +3
Cleveland is 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games against Milwaukee.
Cleveland is 12-8-1 ATS when playing on 1 day of rest this season.
The Bucks seem like they could suffer an emotional letdown in this game. Milwaukee last played on Sunday night at home against Sacramento. The Bucks won that game 143-142 on a last-second 30+ foot three-point shot by Damian Lillard. It was a miracle win. It might be hard for the Bucks to get up for a game against a Cleveland team missing multiple starters.
The Cavaliers have been solid lately even without the services of Evan Mobley or Darius Garland. Cleveland is 7-2 straight up in their last 9 games and 6-3 ATS in that same span. They do still have Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen, and Max Strus available. All three players are averaging over 13 points per game this season. Two stats should solidify the case for Cleveland in this one: the Cavaliers are 12-10-2 ATS in conference games this year, while the Bucks are 14-16-1 ATS against Eastern Conference foes in 2024. I think the Cavaliers either win this game outright or come very close to it at home on Wednesday night.
DETROIT is 11-29 ATS (-20.9 Units) in home games in non-conference games in the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 13-2 Over (10.8 Units) after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 28-58 ATS (-35.8 Units) after a game where they covered the spread in the last 3 seasons.
NEW YORK is 13-3 ATS (9.7 Units) vs. losing teams in the current season.
BOSTON is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive unders in the current season.
CHARLOTTE is 33-18 ATS (13.2 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) in the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 40-61 ATS (-27.1 Units) after a game where they covered the spread in the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) when playing 8 or more games in 14 days in the current season.
PORTLAND is 17-36 ATS (-22.6 Units) in home games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games in the last 3 seasons.
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Bruce Marshall
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