Monday

Playoffs 42-30 (+18.09u)

4-0 yesterday 

OKC -9 3x 
OKC ML/BOS ML 1x  
Tatum Boards/Assists o14.5

analysis below

Nice sweep 

Horrendous travel spot for Denver on just 1 day rest. Had to play the Clippers, a top 3 rated defensive team since all star break in a grueling 7 game series and now go on the road to play OKC who has been resting for a week. OKC has the best home court advantage, best ATS record at home, and best margin of victory than any other team in NBA history. I’m okay if this loses I think the data and spot is right. 

Game 1 favorites laying 6+ points are 14-8 ATS last 22 (63.6%)

fade or follow bol

I have data over the last 7 years that shows the Celtics or a #2 seed playing at home is the best bet ATS among all the seeds. Also, the #3 seed on the road in round 2 is 11-24 ATS (31.4%).  

On the flip side, home teams laying 8.5 or more are 2-13 ATS since 2016. This line at -9.5 feels a bit much imo, but I lean Boston. Was hoping for a couple points less. I think Boston is a horrible matchup for the Knicks defensively. They have the peeps to throw at Brunson. 

Nice Freedo

Denv blown out and NY wins game 1. Warriors are going to the Finals. 

@Beningo88

What’s up holmes

Warriors v Wolves should be interesting. Julius Randle is playing good basketball lord save us…

@MrFreedo

 Warriors bitch slapped a very confident team at home tonight. I think their experience and dawgs will get them to the finals. 

Good luck Mr. F.  

Nice sweep keep it going mah man w/ respect @MrFreedo 

@jassonadder

Been playing the same props mostly. Tatum is a new one. Need him to play around 40 minutes imo. I’ll see how this one shakes out if I continue playing it. Post #3 for OKC thoughts. bol 

Brunson Assists leader in Series vs Celtics -210 (2.1u)

Laying the juice again on a prop from MGM that feels off for assists. They screwed up Haliburton’s 2 series in a row. Tatum is 2nd at +250. Brunson will be guarded by Derrick White, Holiday, and Brown. Coach Thibs will play him heavy minutes as usual. I’ll update my futures at some point, I’m looking at a few more. 

@MrFreedo

 Bol MrFreedo ..

I agree with you about the "bitch slapped" part, but the Warriors weren't facing a confident team last night. It was clear to see the Rockets were scared silly from the start. What a disgraceful fold job THAT was!

@MrBator

Celtics in 5
Wolves in 6
Thunder in 6
Cavs in 7

Tatum Boards/Assist o14.5 

another prop cashes before the 4th quarter 

Knicks 

@Beningo88

You called it…live and die by the three. Holy shit lol.