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All Forums | NBA Betting

Mavs will be......THUNDERSTRUCK!

123 Next Last»
bodio
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bodio
bodio
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Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: May. 23, 2011 - 12:11 PM ET #1

2010-2011 NBA Record:
151 - 99 @ 60% for +42.1 Units


2010-2011 NBA Playoffs Record:
25 - 19@ 57% for +4.1 Units




Mon 05/23

Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5

I'll keep on zigging and zagging in this series since that's the current pattern. Throw in the fact that this is a must win game for Thunder and I expect them to play with an added sense of urgency in this one. I liked the way Okie city finished game 3, coming back in the 2nd half and only losing by 6, after being completely dominated in the 1st half. Okie City is 3-0 ATS when trailing in a playoff series this year and 6-1 ATS over the past couple of seasons in a similar scenario. I like them to bounce-back in this one. Bookies are expecting a similar effort and the line is juiced up to account for the 'zig zag'. Even so, at less than 2 buckets I feel there's enough 'value' to grab an Okie City team that is 6-2 at home in these playoffs.

Good luck!

_________________

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400

--------------------------------------------------------------
'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330



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2010-2011 NBA Record:
151 - 99 @ 60% for +42.1 Units


2010-2011 NBA Playoffs Record:
25 - 19@ 57% for +4.1 Units




Mon 05/23

Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5

I'll keep on zigging and zagging in this series since that's the current pattern. Throw in the fact that this is a must win game for Thunder and I expect them to play with an added sense of urgency in this one. I liked the way Okie city finished game 3, coming back in the 2nd half and only losing by 6, after being completely dominated in the 1st half. Okie City is 3-0 ATS when trailing in a playoff series this year and 6-1 ATS over the past couple of seasons in a similar scenario. I like them to bounce-back in this one. Bookies are expecting a similar effort and the line is juiced up to account for the 'zig zag'. Even so, at less than 2 buckets I feel there's enough 'value' to grab an Okie City team that is 6-2 at home in these playoffs.

Good luck!

_________________

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400

--------------------------------------------------------------
'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330



 
54321bam
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Posted: May. 23, 2011 - 12:19 PM ET #2

GL bodio!  Always enjoy reading your thoughts.  I am too chicken shit to play the spread today.  Going with the over. 
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GL bodio!  Always enjoy reading your thoughts.  I am too chicken shit to play the spread today.  Going with the over. 
 
buffalo11
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Posted: May. 23, 2011 - 12:21 PM ET #3

im with ya on this one,okc will win by 10+ OVER looks good also
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im with ya on this one,okc will win by 10+ OVER looks good also
 
topcat69
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Posted: May. 23, 2011 - 12:22 PM ET #4

 I like your thinking B... leaning OKC ML...this gm has had me straight trippin B....

dam im glad to see you on board here....

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 I like your thinking B... leaning OKC ML...this gm has had me straight trippin B....

dam im glad to see you on board here....

 
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Posted: May. 23, 2011 - 12:25 PM ET #5

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Posted: May. 23, 2011 - 12:26 PM ET #6

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bob696969
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Posted: May. 23, 2011 - 12:27 PM ET #7

I am cheering for the mavs and feel they are the better team over-all and will win the series, but can't argue with your write up! 

The key adjustment the Thunder need to make, as noted by Hollinger, is they have to bench perkins and limit his minutes for this series.  Great team player, but he is simply over-matched by chandler.  In three straight games, the thunder have started out in a hole, and he has a negative +/- ..... If not for the spectacular play of the thunder bench, which i would argue was an annomally, this series could be 3-0.  The flip side to that is even if they bench perkins, can collins handle the extra minutes without fouling out anyway?

.... now a brief follow-up from yesterday.... do you still feel the bulls are the better team?  Seems like the heat have "figured out" how to defend the bulls, and the mid-range shooting ability of Haslem is making things hard for the bulls to cover both bosh and haslem will smothering both wade and james on offense.  Yes it was a tight game, and it was a key 7 point spurt by the heat that blew this game open.... but in a tight, defense series like this one, every game is going to be decided by a "key 7-0 nothing run" in the second half.  The heat are much more capable of such runs than the bulls.

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I am cheering for the mavs and feel they are the better team over-all and will win the series, but can't argue with your write up! 

The key adjustment the Thunder need to make, as noted by Hollinger, is they have to bench perkins and limit his minutes for this series.  Great team player, but he is simply over-matched by chandler.  In three straight games, the thunder have started out in a hole, and he has a negative +/- ..... If not for the spectacular play of the thunder bench, which i would argue was an annomally, this series could be 3-0.  The flip side to that is even if they bench perkins, can collins handle the extra minutes without fouling out anyway?

.... now a brief follow-up from yesterday.... do you still feel the bulls are the better team?  Seems like the heat have "figured out" how to defend the bulls, and the mid-range shooting ability of Haslem is making things hard for the bulls to cover both bosh and haslem will smothering both wade and james on offense.  Yes it was a tight game, and it was a key 7 point spurt by the heat that blew this game open.... but in a tight, defense series like this one, every game is going to be decided by a "key 7-0 nothing run" in the second half.  The heat are much more capable of such runs than the bulls.

 
numbersbuster
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Posted: May. 23, 2011 - 12:29 PM ET #8

Quote Originally Posted by buffalo11:

im with ya on this one,okc will win by 10+ OVER looks good also

The Mavericks have lost by 10 or more ONCE since January so good luck with all that.  

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Quote Originally Posted by buffalo11:

im with ya on this one,okc will win by 10+ OVER looks good also

The Mavericks have lost by 10 or more ONCE since January so good luck with all that.  

 
buffalo11
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Posted: May. 23, 2011 - 12:35 PM ET #9

Quote Originally Posted by numbersbuster:

The Mavericks have lost by 10 or more ONCE since January so good luck with all that.  



didn't you learn from game #2? streaks are mad to be broken there buddy
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Quote Originally Posted by numbersbuster:

The Mavericks have lost by 10 or more ONCE since January so good luck with all that.  



didn't you learn from game #2? streaks are mad to be broken there buddy
 
comefrombehind
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Posted: May. 23, 2011 - 12:36 PM ET #10

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yogz1
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Posted: May. 23, 2011 - 12:42 PM ET #11

gl amigo.....
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gl amigo.....
 
MatriXX
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Posted: May. 23, 2011 - 12:44 PM ET #12

GL...
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GL...
 
bodio
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Posted: May. 23, 2011 - 12:49 PM ET #13

Quote Originally Posted by bob696969:

I am cheering for the mavs and feel they are the better team over-all and will win the series, but can't argue with your write up! 

The key adjustment the Thunder need to make, as noted by Hollinger, is they have to bench perkins and limit his minutes for this series.  Great team player, but he is simply over-matched by chandler.  In three straight games, the thunder have started out in a hole, and he has a negative +/- ..... If not for the spectacular play of the thunder bench, which i would argue was an annomally, this series could be 3-0.  The flip side to that is even if they bench perkins, can collins handle the extra minutes without fouling out anyway?

.... now a brief follow-up from yesterday.... do you still feel the bulls are the better team?  Seems like the heat have "figured out" how to defend the bulls, and the mid-range shooting ability of Haslem is making things hard for the bulls to cover both bosh and haslem will smothering both wade and james on offense.  Yes it was a tight game, and it was a key 7 point spurt by the heat that blew this game open.... but in a tight, defense series like this one, every game is going to be decided by a "key 7-0 nothing run" in the second half.  The heat are much more capable of such runs than the bulls.


Couldn't have said it better myself.  Initially I felt that Bulls' size and depth was a big advantage in this series.  But the bottom line is that when you have 3 players that can take over a game at any point, it's really tough to beat the Heat in a short 7 game series.  Chicago can hang for 3 quarters, but in the decisive 4th frame, they just don't have another capable go-to scorer besides Rose to take over the game.  Rose gets double teamed and Boozer is pretty tired by the end of the game.  Noone really to take on the scoring burden.  I would limit Boozer's minutes in the first 3 quarters of the game, and use him in the post in the 4th to stretch the field and get a few buckets in the paint.  Sure he doesn't really have the 'lift' but he's the only one on this Bulls roster that can play with is back to the basket.  Keep him fresh, and give him the ball in the post when Rose gets double-teamed.  That's the only adjustment that I can think of.  The only problem is that when Booze and Korver are on the court together, it's 2 players that are liability on defense.  I guess benching Korver at the end of games is another adjustment that should be made.  Either way, game 4 will be Chicago's last stand IMO (as I'm sure is an opinion of everyone else).  

Can I back them for the 4th straight game?   Hmmm....
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Quote Originally Posted by bob696969:

I am cheering for the mavs and feel they are the better team over-all and will win the series, but can't argue with your write up! 

The key adjustment the Thunder need to make, as noted by Hollinger, is they have to bench perkins and limit his minutes for this series.  Great team player, but he is simply over-matched by chandler.  In three straight games, the thunder have started out in a hole, and he has a negative +/- ..... If not for the spectacular play of the thunder bench, which i would argue was an annomally, this series could be 3-0.  The flip side to that is even if they bench perkins, can collins handle the extra minutes without fouling out anyway?

.... now a brief follow-up from yesterday.... do you still feel the bulls are the better team?  Seems like the heat have "figured out" how to defend the bulls, and the mid-range shooting ability of Haslem is making things hard for the bulls to cover both bosh and haslem will smothering both wade and james on offense.  Yes it was a tight game, and it was a key 7 point spurt by the heat that blew this game open.... but in a tight, defense series like this one, every game is going to be decided by a "key 7-0 nothing run" in the second half.  The heat are much more capable of such runs than the bulls.


Couldn't have said it better myself.  Initially I felt that Bulls' size and depth was a big advantage in this series.  But the bottom line is that when you have 3 players that can take over a game at any point, it's really tough to beat the Heat in a short 7 game series.  Chicago can hang for 3 quarters, but in the decisive 4th frame, they just don't have another capable go-to scorer besides Rose to take over the game.  Rose gets double teamed and Boozer is pretty tired by the end of the game.  Noone really to take on the scoring burden.  I would limit Boozer's minutes in the first 3 quarters of the game, and use him in the post in the 4th to stretch the field and get a few buckets in the paint.  Sure he doesn't really have the 'lift' but he's the only one on this Bulls roster that can play with is back to the basket.  Keep him fresh, and give him the ball in the post when Rose gets double-teamed.  That's the only adjustment that I can think of.  The only problem is that when Booze and Korver are on the court together, it's 2 players that are liability on defense.  I guess benching Korver at the end of games is another adjustment that should be made.  Either way, game 4 will be Chicago's last stand IMO (as I'm sure is an opinion of everyone else).  

Can I back them for the 4th straight game?   Hmmm....
 
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Posted: May. 23, 2011 - 12:50 PM ET #14

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Posted: May. 23, 2011 - 12:52 PM ET #15

 
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5t4r5align
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Posted: May. 23, 2011 - 12:53 PM ET #16

All over it!  Thanks Bo!
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All over it!  Thanks Bo!
 
Barbosa212
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Posted: May. 23, 2011 - 12:57 PM ET #17

Good Luck Bo.  

Just like I thought Miami would score over 93, and continue to stay undefeated at home now 7-0, I like Dallas to drop the hammer on OKC and their average at best defense.  Mav's will clamp down on D and hold OKC in check, Mav's bench will roll as usual. 

Hate being opposite you, but it has to be done again




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Good Luck Bo.  

Just like I thought Miami would score over 93, and continue to stay undefeated at home now 7-0, I like Dallas to drop the hammer on OKC and their average at best defense.  Mav's will clamp down on D and hold OKC in check, Mav's bench will roll as usual. 

Hate being opposite you, but it has to be done again




 
slapper
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Posted: May. 23, 2011 - 12:58 PM ET #18

how do you feel about the o/u bodio? leaning over myself but still thinking about it. what do you think about thunder -2 first half? thanks
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how do you feel about the o/u bodio? leaning over myself but still thinking about it. what do you think about thunder -2 first half? thanks
 
bodio
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Posted: May. 23, 2011 - 1:43 PM ET #19

Quote Originally Posted by Barbosa212:

Good Luck Bo.  

Just like I thought Miami would score over 93, and continue to stay undefeated at home now 7-0, I like Dallas to drop the hammer on OKC and their average at best defense.  Mav's will clamp down on D and hold OKC in check, Mav's bench will roll as usual. 

Hate being opposite you, but it has to be done again





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Quote Originally Posted by Barbosa212:

Good Luck Bo.  

Just like I thought Miami would score over 93, and continue to stay undefeated at home now 7-0, I like Dallas to drop the hammer on OKC and their average at best defense.  Mav's will clamp down on D and hold OKC in check, Mav's bench will roll as usual. 

Hate being opposite you, but it has to be done again





 
bodio
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Posted: May. 23, 2011 - 1:44 PM ET #20

Quote Originally Posted by slapper:

how do you feel about the o/u bodio? leaning over myself but still thinking about it. what do you think about thunder -2 first half? thanks

I'm leaning OVER, but don't like playing OVERS in the playoffs so I will pass.  

Thunder -2 first half makes sense, as Okie city is expected to play with added sense of urgency.  
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Quote Originally Posted by slapper:

how do you feel about the o/u bodio? leaning over myself but still thinking about it. what do you think about thunder -2 first half? thanks

I'm leaning OVER, but don't like playing OVERS in the playoffs so I will pass.  

Thunder -2 first half makes sense, as Okie city is expected to play with added sense of urgency.  
 
EddieGordo
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Posted: May. 23, 2011 - 2:16 PM ET #21

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topcat69
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Posted: May. 23, 2011 - 2:19 PM ET #22

OKC Tonite ...Mavs take the series...in 6 
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OKC Tonite ...Mavs take the series...in 6 
 
CloserX
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Posted: May. 23, 2011 - 2:20 PM ET #23

i completely agree B.Mavericks may be the better team but OKC excells in these situatio. We all saw what happened last time they had a bad loss the game before AND were facing elimination... that game 7 against memphis was their best game during these playoffs. i see them coming out with that same fire tonight!

GL everyone! 
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i completely agree B.Mavericks may be the better team but OKC excells in these situatio. We all saw what happened last time they had a bad loss the game before AND were facing elimination... that game 7 against memphis was their best game during these playoffs. i see them coming out with that same fire tonight!

GL everyone! 
 
topcat69
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Posted: May. 23, 2011 - 2:22 PM ET #24

Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


I'm leaning OVER, but don't like playing OVERS in the playoffs so I will pass.  

Thunder -2 first half makes sense, as Okie city is expected to play with added sense of urgency.  
196 is a trick of the Devil ......Big O tonite...
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Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


I'm leaning OVER, but don't like playing OVERS in the playoffs so I will pass.  

Thunder -2 first half makes sense, as Okie city is expected to play with added sense of urgency.  
196 is a trick of the Devil ......Big O tonite...
 
 
Barbosa212
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Posted: May. 23, 2011 - 2:34 PM ET #25

Quote Originally Posted by bodio:



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Quote Originally Posted by bodio:



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